With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
Women's 100m Free
Which two Dutch women will earn the individual spots here? Might Coughlin's medal chances be better here than in her signature backstroke?
Braden Keith - I think whoever emerges as the Dutch National Champion will eventually win the Olympic gold, and at this point all signs point towards a battle of the 1990 babies in London: Hometown girl Fran Halsall and Ranomi Kromowidjojo. Kromowidjojo should be out a little bit faster, and I think she's going to carry that lead through the turn and into the final wall. She went a 53.44 last year for the top time in the world, and that was in a March meet after she missed most of the big long course meets following a summer battle with Meningitis. She'll definitely clear the textile WR of 53.30, and could have as low as a 52 in her. Halsall's second, with the UK having to rely on their backstrokers and IM'er to earn gold for the home crowd.
I think Coughlin's chances of winning a medal, if not making the team, are way better here than in the 100 back. The domestic and international backstroke competition has gotten absolutely brutal for her, whereas the freestyle is much more wide open. It should be a diverse final, with a good possibility that 7 or 8 different countries will be represented.
Belarus' Aleksandra Herasimenia is intriguing to me. She had limitless potential prior to a doping suspension back in the mid-2000's, but she's not back at the top of the world rankings. She was the runner-up at Euro's last year, only losing to Halsall. At the Olympics, she'll be able to really focus on two individual races (the 50 and 100 freestyle) without having to worry much about relays or the backstroke (at World Champs, she's a favorite in the 50 back). I think that she sneaks in for the bronze.
Prediction - 1) Kromowidjojo 2) Halsall 3) Herasimenia
Darkhorse: Yi Tang - Last year, the Chinese women had a top-8 swimmer in every Olympic event, except for the two sprint freestyles. I can't believe that's going to last very long, and at only 18, Yi Tang is already the best the country has. In 2010 alone, she won 7 medals at the Asian Games (5 gold), and went 6-for-6 at the Youth Olympic Games. She made her first Olympic appearance in front of her home crowd at 15, and her second could result in some huge fireworks.
Showing posts with label 2012 Olympics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Olympics. Show all posts
Saturday, 18 June 2011
Friday, 29 April 2011
Latest Score: Ian Thorpe 1 - Michael Phelps 0
Ian Thorpe has struck first in his renewed rivalry with Michael Phelps. The score as it stands now:-
Royal Wedding Attendances: Ian Thorpe 1 - Michael Phelps 0
PS. He looks in much better shape than when he announced his comeback in early February (below). This appearance seems to back up recent reports coming out of Switzerland that the comeback is going well.
UPDATE with video of Thorpe arriving.
Saturday, 23 April 2011
Do the Russian women now have a 4 x 100 Medley Relay Team?
Russian women have it pretty tough when it comes to relays. While the Russian men are busy scaring the American and French freestylers, more often that not the Russian women's teams have been mere observers during recent major finals, whether they qualified for the Top 8 or not.
That might be about to change with the recent breakthrough of Veronika Popova into the upper echelons of women's freestyle sprinting. On Day Two of the Russian Champs, Popova, 20, raced to a new national record in the 100 Free with a time of 54.22. Tonight, Popova followed that swim up with a 53.82 relay split (as well as a 1:56.94, 200 Free earlier in the session). Irina Bespalova, Popova's club teammate, won the 100 Fly in a time of 58.99.
Friday, 22 April 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 4 Roundtable Part I
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
Men's 100m Freestyle
Alain Bernard and Eamon Sullivan dominated this race in 2008, but will either swim this race in London? Can Cesar Cielo add the 100 free gold to his 50 free title from Beijing, or will a younger sprinter steal the crown? If he swims it, will Michael Phelps be a factor, and can an American win?
DR - I feel like Cielo still has something to prove in the 100 free, and it won't be an easy challenge for him with all of the great sprinters out there. For someone who's most natural event is the 50, it will be interesting to see how he deals with the actual 100 freestylers out there. Of course, he is the world champ and world record-holder, so never count him out!
I don't think Phelps will swim the 100 free because of the conflicts with the 200 fly and 800 free relay. (The 100 free semis come just before those two finals.) I think Phelps will put up a time that would win a medal as a relay lead-off, just as he did in Beijing, but the 200 fly is the priority for him still. Similarly, I think Ryan Lochte will skip the 100 free to focus on his many other events, such as the aforementioned relay and 200 back/200 IM, both of which have their semi-finals on the day of the 100 free final.
Men's 100m Freestyle
Alain Bernard and Eamon Sullivan dominated this race in 2008, but will either swim this race in London? Can Cesar Cielo add the 100 free gold to his 50 free title from Beijing, or will a younger sprinter steal the crown? If he swims it, will Michael Phelps be a factor, and can an American win?
DR - I feel like Cielo still has something to prove in the 100 free, and it won't be an easy challenge for him with all of the great sprinters out there. For someone who's most natural event is the 50, it will be interesting to see how he deals with the actual 100 freestylers out there. Of course, he is the world champ and world record-holder, so never count him out!
I don't think Phelps will swim the 100 free because of the conflicts with the 200 fly and 800 free relay. (The 100 free semis come just before those two finals.) I think Phelps will put up a time that would win a medal as a relay lead-off, just as he did in Beijing, but the 200 fly is the priority for him still. Similarly, I think Ryan Lochte will skip the 100 free to focus on his many other events, such as the aforementioned relay and 200 back/200 IM, both of which have their semi-finals on the day of the 100 free final.
Tuesday, 12 April 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 3 Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
Men’s 200m Butterfly
BK - Phelps is back, and seems to be serious again. With London in sight, I expect that he'll carry that momentum through the duration. He went a 1:54.1 in this event in debatable shape, and in good shape, he's going to put up a 1:53-low or better, and that will be that.
The top 3 in the world last year, Phelps, Matsuda, and D'Arcy, all lined up next to each other last summer at Pan Pacs. It's a great demonstration of the differences in technique betwen the 3 swimmers, and after seeing that, it's hard to buy D'Arcy finishing any higher than 3rd. D'Arcy is strong and has great walls, but he has to be that way to match the efficiency of the other 2 swimmers. I actually think he'll get nipped by Wu Peng of China for a medal too.
Picks: 1) Phelps, 2) Matsuda, 3) Peng. Darkhorse: Bence Biczo from Hungary. He set the European Juniors record last year in Helsinki, and pulled off the 200 fly double at both European Juniors and the Youth Olympic Games. Chad Le Clos gets all of the youth hype in this event, but Biczo might be better than him at this point.
DR- Only 1:53-low on phelps? I'd say probably a WR or at least very close. Good chance of 1:50 or even... 1:49?
Men’s 200m Butterfly
BK - Phelps is back, and seems to be serious again. With London in sight, I expect that he'll carry that momentum through the duration. He went a 1:54.1 in this event in debatable shape, and in good shape, he's going to put up a 1:53-low or better, and that will be that.
The top 3 in the world last year, Phelps, Matsuda, and D'Arcy, all lined up next to each other last summer at Pan Pacs. It's a great demonstration of the differences in technique betwen the 3 swimmers, and after seeing that, it's hard to buy D'Arcy finishing any higher than 3rd. D'Arcy is strong and has great walls, but he has to be that way to match the efficiency of the other 2 swimmers. I actually think he'll get nipped by Wu Peng of China for a medal too.
Picks: 1) Phelps, 2) Matsuda, 3) Peng. Darkhorse: Bence Biczo from Hungary. He set the European Juniors record last year in Helsinki, and pulled off the 200 fly double at both European Juniors and the Youth Olympic Games. Chad Le Clos gets all of the youth hype in this event, but Biczo might be better than him at this point.
DR- Only 1:53-low on phelps? I'd say probably a WR or at least very close. Good chance of 1:50 or even... 1:49?
Saturday, 26 March 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 2 (Women's Events) Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
2012 Olympics Day Two Roundtable – Women's Events
Women’s 100m Backstroke
Which of the Brits will finish higher: Spofforth or Simmonds? Can Coughlin still do it in the long course version of the 100 back, and more significantly can she keep her Olympic medals streak alive? Which of the young American backstrokers has the best chance at making the team in this race?
BK - While most of the swimming world is expanding its borders to every make and manner of country, this 100 backstroke is bucking the trend and narrowing in to the super powers. As I see it, only 5 countries have the chance at finalists - the USA, Australia, the UK, Japan, and China. This will be sort of the "cold war" of the 2012 Olympics, with 5 of the world's superpowers going at it.
Seebohm got so good at such a young age, it's hard to remember that she's only going to barely be 20 at London. Franklin just keeps getting faster, and faster, and faster. We won't get to see her in this race in Shanghai, which is unfortunate, but she's already been a 59.5 this year! At 15! Incredible! Another 18 months, and there's no telling where she'll be. I hate to say it, but I think Coughlin's streak ends here...if she can even make a top-2 spot at trials. She wasn't in the greatest shape yet in Irvine, but I just don't think she can match the 58 that it's going to take to medal.
Predictions - 1) Seebohm 2) Zhing 3) Franklin
Wildcard - Rachel Bootsma - Just crushed Natalie Coughlin's US 17-18 Age Group backstroke record in yards, and still has another year of high school left.
TW - In keeping with the cold war theme, I'll include Zueva from Russia as a potential finalist.
Spofforth remains GB's no.1 (on the 100m). I get the feeling both Simmonds and Spofforth are going to have a shaky 2011, but get it together in time for London.
Missy Franklin might just be the star of these Olympics. She made 59.5 look easy at the Indy Grand Prix.
Japan's Aya Terakawa is for real. As is compatriot Shiho Sakai as well as China's Zhao Jing and Gao Chang. So hard to not pick one of these for the podium. Maybe they'll prove me wrong and make it an Asian 1-2-3.
Predictions 1) Franklin 2) Spofforth 3) Seebohm
Wildcard - Femke Heemskerk. One of the leading lights in the 100m Free, Heemskerk just set a new Dutch National record in this event with a 1:00.03. She's taking great chunks off her 100 time each year, and oh yeah... she just so happens to train every day with Camille Lacourt in Marseille. Watch out.
DR - Spofforth, Simmonds, and especially Zueva have not been on fire lately but have serious potential and should be factors. The four Asian swimmers are scary, especially Zhao Jing. As is usual, the Chinese will have an edge this summer at Worlds in their home country. Zhao's 58 this summer should be too much for me to overlook for London, but I stupidly am doing so anyway.
Prediction: 1) Seebohm, 2) Franklin, 3) Coughlin
Will be a great battle at U.S. trials with Coughlin, Franklin, Pelton, and maybe a few others (Bootsma?); really tough to leave one out. I could see all three at 58s by then. In six months, Coughlin got from a 18 months off to 59.7, so I don't doubt her. For the same reason, she has a knack for getting Olympic medals, and she will fight hard to stay on the medal stand in her signature event. Will also be an interesting battle for the second spot in Australia, where maybe Hocking can get to 59-mid.
Neither of you mentioned the woman who won silver in the last two Olympics - Kirsty Coventry. She will always be a factor in any race she swims, but we don't know how much of a setback her year off was. Julia Wilkinson from Canada and Jenny Mensing from Germany are good darkhorses that could sneak into the final if someone else makes a mistake.
Women's 100 Breast
Will Rebecca Soni still be the undisputed breaststroke queen in London, or can Leisel Jones defend her Olympic title in the 100? Will Jessica Hardy be able to make the U.S. team, and if she is cleared to swim, will she be a factor? Can anyone make the step-up to the level of Jones and Soni?
DR - I see Soni being well out in front by London. I think she'll take down Hardy's world record at the Olympics, if not before. Jones could be under 1:05 as well, but she won't be able to get down as low as Soni. Hardy has the talent to go under 1:04 as well, but I think she won't put enough focus on breaststroke to get that low. She will definitely compete in the 100 breast at Trials and should make the team. Will go in as a definite possibility for a medal.
Yuliya Efimova has been a consistent talent for a while, and I see her in the 1:05-mid/high range by 2012. Another easy choice for a medal. Also watch for Japan's Satomi Suzuki and whatever two Chinese swimmers are in the event; they could be scary outside shots.
Darkhorse No. 1: Leiston Pickett - Been mostly a 50 swimmer so far, but with Australia no longer selecting swimmers for non-Olympic events, she has to step up for the 100. Already has shown her speed but still waiting to see how she develops as a 100 swimmer.
Darkhorse No. 2: Jillian Tyler - Finally broke through with her first NCAA title after finishing second to Soni in 2009 and completely out of the money last year. Has to help her confidence going into face the likes of Annamay Pierse nationally in Canada. Good shot to claim that second spot and get on the team.
TW - I agree with David, its hard to look past Soni at this point. She has become such a consistent performer. Hardy's best hope is probably a bronze at this stage and I think she will be focused more on the 50/100 Free than the Breaststroke.
Its easy to forget that Efimova is still just 18 years-old and she's the one swimmer I see with a realistic chance of bridging the gap to Soni and Jones.
After her performance at NCAA's last year I thought Annie Chandler would step up more than she did long course, although there is still time for her. Its going to be tough to overhaul Hardy though.
Prediction 1) Soni 2) Jones 3) Efimova
Wildcard - Ruta Meilutyte - A 14-year-old Lithuanian prodigy who moved to England and started training at Plymouth Leander (Achieng Ajulu-Bushell's former club). At the Luxembourg open this year she swam 1:08.87 to set a new national record. London might come too soon for her, but it wouldn't be the first time a youngster made an impact in the Women's Breaststroke events (Amanda Beard won 3 medals at the Atlanta Olympics at 14 years old).
BK - If someone's going to beat Soni in London, it's going to be Hardy. I think that she's the only swimmer who's young/talented enough to match Soni in the 100. But she seems to be viewing this as sort of a bonus, and lately has preferred to focus on the sprint freestyles.
If there's a shot at Leisel Jones knocking off Soni, it's that she is considering dropping the 200 breaststroke from her schedule at the World Championships to focus on just the sprints. That extra focus on the sprint distance (though the 200 might be added back for London) could give her a little push (though I personally feel like breaststroke is the stroke where this "distance focus" has the smallest effect).
Prediction 1) Soni, 2) Jones, 3) Hardy. If Hardy doesn't swim this event (or any events), I like Katsoulis to take the bronze.
Since David brought up Jillian Tyler, I'll take the opportunity to mention the other swimmer who took the NCAA by storm (and even knocked Tyler off in the 200): Texas A&M's Breeja Larson. It would be absurd for a swimmer who has only been a member of USA-Swimming for 3 years to qualify for an Olympic team, wouldn't it? Especially one who's never been better than a 1:12 in the 100m breaststroke? Maybe not. Larson's learning curve has been unbelievable (she's dropped 4 yards seconds in the last year and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down), and her 58.5 from NCAA's converts to a 1:07-low in meters. Not to put undue pressure on a swimmer in the infancy of her career, but the whole world should have at least a corner of one eye on what Larson does this summer.
DR - I want to drop one more point about Hardy. You guys mention her focus - if she has to appeal to swim in London AFTER Trials, will she be able to regain her focus on swimming in time (assuming she wins the appeal)?
One more darkhorse to mention. The silver medalist in the 1996 Olympics and 2003 World Champs, and the fourth place finisher in the 2004 Olympics. Yep, Amanda Beard. She shocked everyone at U.S. Nationals when she finished second in the 200 breast to make Pan Pacs. At Pan Pacs, she took fifth in both breasts and made the team for Shanghai. All after nine months of training. What can she do with two more years under her belt?
Women's 400 Free
The two British swimmers really stepped up in Beijing, but can they repeat that performance in London? Will Pellegrini make up for her extremely disappointing final in Beijing? How about Hoff?
DR - Pellegrini and Adlington are right now the top contenders, with the Americans (Hoff/Sutton) right behind. Camille Muffat from France won World Short Course in the 200 and will be looking to extend her range upwards, but she will have domestic competition from Ophielle-Cyrielle Ettienne and Coralie Balmy if she even wants to swim it in Shanghai or London. The Chinese are always scary outside threats.
Hoff and Sutton go in as the favorites for U.S. Trials since they are the two swimming the event in Shanghai. However, Kate Ziegler has looked awesome lately and will be in the mix, as will new NCAA record-holder Allison Schmitt. Dagny Knutson could also be in the hunt for that spot if she gains upward momentum in Fullerton.
The Australians have a solid group of freestylers, led by Commonwealth 200 free champion and World Short Course 400 free silver medalist Kylie Palmer. Bronte Barratt has won the last two Aussie titles in the event, and Katie Goldman and Blair Evans took 2-3 behind Sutton at Pan Pacs.
I already mentioned the French domestic competition. However, I need to bring up 2004 Olympic Champ Laure Manaudou. She is apparently progressing in her comeback at Auburn, but I think her chances in her new career lie mainly in the shorter events - 100 back and maybe 200 free/200 back. A lot more still to develop for Manaudou.
Prediction (UPSET ALERT!) - 1) Sutton, 2) Adlington, 3) Hoff
BK - Very tough race to call. Sutton is building momentum quickly, and she could be unstoppable by the Olympics. I think it will be a very tight race, and I think all the turmoil Pellegrini is going through - including attempting all the freestyles from 100 up to 800 could be enough to deprive her of another Olympic 400 free medal.
I don't think Sutton will be ready to win this 400 free, and has a much better shot in the 800. She's been making a lot of progress on her turns, but Rebecca Adlington looked incredible at GB Nationals. This race should be between Adlington and Pellegrini. Adlington probably wins it in Shanghai while Pellegrini is still settling into her new training routine, but London will be a much more interesting race. It's hard to pick between the two of them, because we don't know how the Italian will react to her new training grounds. But for now, I've gotta take Adlington.
The bronze will go to an American, but which one is going to be interesting. Hoff and Sutton have to be the front-runners at this point, but Allison Schmitt just broke the NCAA Record in the 500 free and Kate Ziegler was on fire last summer. Dagny Knutson will also have a lot of drop to go now that she's settled into her new digs in Fullerton. But I think Sutton has the most tools and the most easily definable path to improvement, and takes bronze.
Prediction 1) Adlington 2) Pellegrini 3) Sutton - Darkhorse: Joanne Jackson - It's easy to forget about her after the bizarre string of illnesses she's had since Beijing, but her time out of the pool will keep her driven for London now that she's healthy.
TW – Nice Jackson pick as a darkhorse, however, I have to disagree with your point about Sutton having a better shot at the 800. I think at this stage you have to consider her to have a stronger 400 than 800, as much as that goes against the logical argument about coming down in distance from Open Water. The 400 seems to suit both her speed and endurance just right. I think she represents America’s best hope in this event.
After her victorious 2009 and fast start to 2010, Pellegrini was looking like only she could beat herself. Adlington’s 4:02.84 has really shaken this event up though. An anonymous commenter on my blog also made an interesting point when saying they believed Adlington’s 4:00.79 in a LZR was a better swim than Pellegrini’s 3:59.15 in a Jaked suit. Adlington has the benefit of a home crowd on her side (which she thrived on when Manchester held the World Short Course Champs in 2008), she is putting together some good major competition victories over 400m (Olympics, Europeans, Commonwealths) and looks to be managing the huge expectations put on her shoulders much better these days.
Camille Muffat is the other swimmer that I think can shake this event up. She is showing some great speed over 100 and 200 Free and she could be a swimmer who could get out to a decent lead over the first half of the race. Pellegrini, and possibly Schmitt and Hoff, are the only swimmers that could look to match Muffat’s speed at this stage.
Prediction 1) Adlington 2) Pellegrini 3) Sutton. I’m not sure how happy I am picking Pellegrini for silver, I have a feeling she will either win gold or not medal at all. Wildcard – Yiwen Shao. The 16 year-old dominated last year's Asian Games, winning by over 3 seconds in her first international competition. With a major title under her belt already and a home World Championships approaching she could launch herself into the upper echelons of this event.
2012 Olympics Day Two Roundtable – Women's Events
Women’s 100m Backstroke
Which of the Brits will finish higher: Spofforth or Simmonds? Can Coughlin still do it in the long course version of the 100 back, and more significantly can she keep her Olympic medals streak alive? Which of the young American backstrokers has the best chance at making the team in this race?
BK - While most of the swimming world is expanding its borders to every make and manner of country, this 100 backstroke is bucking the trend and narrowing in to the super powers. As I see it, only 5 countries have the chance at finalists - the USA, Australia, the UK, Japan, and China. This will be sort of the "cold war" of the 2012 Olympics, with 5 of the world's superpowers going at it.
Seebohm got so good at such a young age, it's hard to remember that she's only going to barely be 20 at London. Franklin just keeps getting faster, and faster, and faster. We won't get to see her in this race in Shanghai, which is unfortunate, but she's already been a 59.5 this year! At 15! Incredible! Another 18 months, and there's no telling where she'll be. I hate to say it, but I think Coughlin's streak ends here...if she can even make a top-2 spot at trials. She wasn't in the greatest shape yet in Irvine, but I just don't think she can match the 58 that it's going to take to medal.
Predictions - 1) Seebohm 2) Zhing 3) Franklin
Wildcard - Rachel Bootsma - Just crushed Natalie Coughlin's US 17-18 Age Group backstroke record in yards, and still has another year of high school left.
TW - In keeping with the cold war theme, I'll include Zueva from Russia as a potential finalist.
Spofforth remains GB's no.1 (on the 100m). I get the feeling both Simmonds and Spofforth are going to have a shaky 2011, but get it together in time for London.
Missy Franklin might just be the star of these Olympics. She made 59.5 look easy at the Indy Grand Prix.
Japan's Aya Terakawa is for real. As is compatriot Shiho Sakai as well as China's Zhao Jing and Gao Chang. So hard to not pick one of these for the podium. Maybe they'll prove me wrong and make it an Asian 1-2-3.
Predictions 1) Franklin 2) Spofforth 3) Seebohm
Wildcard - Femke Heemskerk. One of the leading lights in the 100m Free, Heemskerk just set a new Dutch National record in this event with a 1:00.03. She's taking great chunks off her 100 time each year, and oh yeah... she just so happens to train every day with Camille Lacourt in Marseille. Watch out.
DR - Spofforth, Simmonds, and especially Zueva have not been on fire lately but have serious potential and should be factors. The four Asian swimmers are scary, especially Zhao Jing. As is usual, the Chinese will have an edge this summer at Worlds in their home country. Zhao's 58 this summer should be too much for me to overlook for London, but I stupidly am doing so anyway.
Prediction: 1) Seebohm, 2) Franklin, 3) Coughlin
Will be a great battle at U.S. trials with Coughlin, Franklin, Pelton, and maybe a few others (Bootsma?); really tough to leave one out. I could see all three at 58s by then. In six months, Coughlin got from a 18 months off to 59.7, so I don't doubt her. For the same reason, she has a knack for getting Olympic medals, and she will fight hard to stay on the medal stand in her signature event. Will also be an interesting battle for the second spot in Australia, where maybe Hocking can get to 59-mid.
Neither of you mentioned the woman who won silver in the last two Olympics - Kirsty Coventry. She will always be a factor in any race she swims, but we don't know how much of a setback her year off was. Julia Wilkinson from Canada and Jenny Mensing from Germany are good darkhorses that could sneak into the final if someone else makes a mistake.
Women's 100 Breast
Will Rebecca Soni still be the undisputed breaststroke queen in London, or can Leisel Jones defend her Olympic title in the 100? Will Jessica Hardy be able to make the U.S. team, and if she is cleared to swim, will she be a factor? Can anyone make the step-up to the level of Jones and Soni?
DR - I see Soni being well out in front by London. I think she'll take down Hardy's world record at the Olympics, if not before. Jones could be under 1:05 as well, but she won't be able to get down as low as Soni. Hardy has the talent to go under 1:04 as well, but I think she won't put enough focus on breaststroke to get that low. She will definitely compete in the 100 breast at Trials and should make the team. Will go in as a definite possibility for a medal.
Yuliya Efimova has been a consistent talent for a while, and I see her in the 1:05-mid/high range by 2012. Another easy choice for a medal. Also watch for Japan's Satomi Suzuki and whatever two Chinese swimmers are in the event; they could be scary outside shots.
Darkhorse No. 1: Leiston Pickett - Been mostly a 50 swimmer so far, but with Australia no longer selecting swimmers for non-Olympic events, she has to step up for the 100. Already has shown her speed but still waiting to see how she develops as a 100 swimmer.
Darkhorse No. 2: Jillian Tyler - Finally broke through with her first NCAA title after finishing second to Soni in 2009 and completely out of the money last year. Has to help her confidence going into face the likes of Annamay Pierse nationally in Canada. Good shot to claim that second spot and get on the team.
TW - I agree with David, its hard to look past Soni at this point. She has become such a consistent performer. Hardy's best hope is probably a bronze at this stage and I think she will be focused more on the 50/100 Free than the Breaststroke.
Its easy to forget that Efimova is still just 18 years-old and she's the one swimmer I see with a realistic chance of bridging the gap to Soni and Jones.
After her performance at NCAA's last year I thought Annie Chandler would step up more than she did long course, although there is still time for her. Its going to be tough to overhaul Hardy though.
Prediction 1) Soni 2) Jones 3) Efimova
Wildcard - Ruta Meilutyte - A 14-year-old Lithuanian prodigy who moved to England and started training at Plymouth Leander (Achieng Ajulu-Bushell's former club). At the Luxembourg open this year she swam 1:08.87 to set a new national record. London might come too soon for her, but it wouldn't be the first time a youngster made an impact in the Women's Breaststroke events (Amanda Beard won 3 medals at the Atlanta Olympics at 14 years old).
BK - If someone's going to beat Soni in London, it's going to be Hardy. I think that she's the only swimmer who's young/talented enough to match Soni in the 100. But she seems to be viewing this as sort of a bonus, and lately has preferred to focus on the sprint freestyles.
If there's a shot at Leisel Jones knocking off Soni, it's that she is considering dropping the 200 breaststroke from her schedule at the World Championships to focus on just the sprints. That extra focus on the sprint distance (though the 200 might be added back for London) could give her a little push (though I personally feel like breaststroke is the stroke where this "distance focus" has the smallest effect).
Prediction 1) Soni, 2) Jones, 3) Hardy. If Hardy doesn't swim this event (or any events), I like Katsoulis to take the bronze.
Since David brought up Jillian Tyler, I'll take the opportunity to mention the other swimmer who took the NCAA by storm (and even knocked Tyler off in the 200): Texas A&M's Breeja Larson. It would be absurd for a swimmer who has only been a member of USA-Swimming for 3 years to qualify for an Olympic team, wouldn't it? Especially one who's never been better than a 1:12 in the 100m breaststroke? Maybe not. Larson's learning curve has been unbelievable (she's dropped 4 yards seconds in the last year and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down), and her 58.5 from NCAA's converts to a 1:07-low in meters. Not to put undue pressure on a swimmer in the infancy of her career, but the whole world should have at least a corner of one eye on what Larson does this summer.
DR - I want to drop one more point about Hardy. You guys mention her focus - if she has to appeal to swim in London AFTER Trials, will she be able to regain her focus on swimming in time (assuming she wins the appeal)?
One more darkhorse to mention. The silver medalist in the 1996 Olympics and 2003 World Champs, and the fourth place finisher in the 2004 Olympics. Yep, Amanda Beard. She shocked everyone at U.S. Nationals when she finished second in the 200 breast to make Pan Pacs. At Pan Pacs, she took fifth in both breasts and made the team for Shanghai. All after nine months of training. What can she do with two more years under her belt?
Women's 400 Free
The two British swimmers really stepped up in Beijing, but can they repeat that performance in London? Will Pellegrini make up for her extremely disappointing final in Beijing? How about Hoff?
DR - Pellegrini and Adlington are right now the top contenders, with the Americans (Hoff/Sutton) right behind. Camille Muffat from France won World Short Course in the 200 and will be looking to extend her range upwards, but she will have domestic competition from Ophielle-Cyrielle Ettienne and Coralie Balmy if she even wants to swim it in Shanghai or London. The Chinese are always scary outside threats.
Hoff and Sutton go in as the favorites for U.S. Trials since they are the two swimming the event in Shanghai. However, Kate Ziegler has looked awesome lately and will be in the mix, as will new NCAA record-holder Allison Schmitt. Dagny Knutson could also be in the hunt for that spot if she gains upward momentum in Fullerton.
The Australians have a solid group of freestylers, led by Commonwealth 200 free champion and World Short Course 400 free silver medalist Kylie Palmer. Bronte Barratt has won the last two Aussie titles in the event, and Katie Goldman and Blair Evans took 2-3 behind Sutton at Pan Pacs.
I already mentioned the French domestic competition. However, I need to bring up 2004 Olympic Champ Laure Manaudou. She is apparently progressing in her comeback at Auburn, but I think her chances in her new career lie mainly in the shorter events - 100 back and maybe 200 free/200 back. A lot more still to develop for Manaudou.
Prediction (UPSET ALERT!) - 1) Sutton, 2) Adlington, 3) Hoff
BK - Very tough race to call. Sutton is building momentum quickly, and she could be unstoppable by the Olympics. I think it will be a very tight race, and I think all the turmoil Pellegrini is going through - including attempting all the freestyles from 100 up to 800 could be enough to deprive her of another Olympic 400 free medal.
I don't think Sutton will be ready to win this 400 free, and has a much better shot in the 800. She's been making a lot of progress on her turns, but Rebecca Adlington looked incredible at GB Nationals. This race should be between Adlington and Pellegrini. Adlington probably wins it in Shanghai while Pellegrini is still settling into her new training routine, but London will be a much more interesting race. It's hard to pick between the two of them, because we don't know how the Italian will react to her new training grounds. But for now, I've gotta take Adlington.
The bronze will go to an American, but which one is going to be interesting. Hoff and Sutton have to be the front-runners at this point, but Allison Schmitt just broke the NCAA Record in the 500 free and Kate Ziegler was on fire last summer. Dagny Knutson will also have a lot of drop to go now that she's settled into her new digs in Fullerton. But I think Sutton has the most tools and the most easily definable path to improvement, and takes bronze.
Prediction 1) Adlington 2) Pellegrini 3) Sutton - Darkhorse: Joanne Jackson - It's easy to forget about her after the bizarre string of illnesses she's had since Beijing, but her time out of the pool will keep her driven for London now that she's healthy.
TW – Nice Jackson pick as a darkhorse, however, I have to disagree with your point about Sutton having a better shot at the 800. I think at this stage you have to consider her to have a stronger 400 than 800, as much as that goes against the logical argument about coming down in distance from Open Water. The 400 seems to suit both her speed and endurance just right. I think she represents America’s best hope in this event.
After her victorious 2009 and fast start to 2010, Pellegrini was looking like only she could beat herself. Adlington’s 4:02.84 has really shaken this event up though. An anonymous commenter on my blog also made an interesting point when saying they believed Adlington’s 4:00.79 in a LZR was a better swim than Pellegrini’s 3:59.15 in a Jaked suit. Adlington has the benefit of a home crowd on her side (which she thrived on when Manchester held the World Short Course Champs in 2008), she is putting together some good major competition victories over 400m (Olympics, Europeans, Commonwealths) and looks to be managing the huge expectations put on her shoulders much better these days.
Camille Muffat is the other swimmer that I think can shake this event up. She is showing some great speed over 100 and 200 Free and she could be a swimmer who could get out to a decent lead over the first half of the race. Pellegrini, and possibly Schmitt and Hoff, are the only swimmers that could look to match Muffat’s speed at this stage.
Prediction 1) Adlington 2) Pellegrini 3) Sutton. I’m not sure how happy I am picking Pellegrini for silver, I have a feeling she will either win gold or not medal at all. Wildcard – Yiwen Shao. The 16 year-old dominated last year's Asian Games, winning by over 3 seconds in her first international competition. With a major title under her belt already and a home World Championships approaching she could launch herself into the upper echelons of this event.
Monday, 14 March 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 (Women's Events) Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable – Part II (Women's Events)
Women’s 100m Butterfly
DR - I’ll go with: 1) Sarah Sjostrum, 2) Christine Magnuson, 3) Fran Halsall, but totally wide open. Aussies will have a deep battle to qualify (Coutts, Schipper, Trickett, Galvez, Kukla), Chinese (Zige and Jiao) will be strong, Sweden’s Alshammar, Brits Halsall and Gandy, Americans Magnuson and Vollmer (or whoever)… well, you get the picture. Darkhorse: Jeanette Ottesen
Gandy’s also had some major consistency issues, but she’s starting to get those straightened out.
BK – The women’s events are really going to be hard to pick on day 1, a lot harder than the men’s. I suspect that there will be a lot less parity in our picks than we saw on the men’s side.
Sjostrom has GOTTA be the favorite. 57.3 in the same week that she turns 17? Unreal! Magnuson and Vollmer hung right with her (in a virtual meet sense) last season, but Sjostrom has only the sky as her ceiling in this race. Beyond that, things get a little murkier in my mind. Stephanie Rice has looked as good as ever coming back from her surgery, and if she wants to (though I’m not sure she will) she could take a run at a medal here. The two Americans are very strong, though Vollmer left me wanting just a little after her performances last year.
BK Predictions – 1) Sarah Sjostrom 2) Dana Vollmer 3) Yolane Kukla. Outside smoker pick would be Amit Ivri from Israel. It seems like every time she gets in the water, she’s near a personal best time. She’s really more of a 50 butterflier, but as she ages (she’s only 21) she’ll get stronger in the 100.
Is Kukla still too young to compete for Olympic medals? Unlike someone like Missy Franklin, is she going to hit a plateau because of her smaller stature?
TW - The women’s 100 Fly is brilliantly open. The Olympic final will likely have representatives from all corners of the globe. America’s Top 2 looks set (Vollmer & Magnuson) but Natalie Coughlin can never be counted out. The Australian trials for this event will be hotly contested, Yolane Kukla is rightfully getting a lot of buzz but I think we’ll need to wait for 2011 to pan out before we can really see where she will be in 2012. Is it possible to have a ‘sophomore slump’ in swimming? Schipper, Galvez and Guehrer always seem to get a spot on the team between them, and then you have Coutts and Seebohm who can really fly and have no schedule clash (unlike Steph Rice). Above all of them I like Trickett’s chances of coming back and making a big impact in the event she dominated in 2008.
I agree with all the reasons for Sjostrom doing well and she will be right there, along with Britain’s Fran Halsall. At a home Olympics I think we will see some swimmers rise to the occasion, and others unfortunately suffer from the pressure. Halsall’s certainly one I think will step up another level in front of the home crowd.
TW Prediction - 1) Trickett 2) Sjostrom 3) Halsall (GB’s first medal on Day 1). Wildcard – I like the Amit Ivri pick, but I am going with China’s Liu Zige. She defines wildcard perfectly, highly unpredictable but capable of beating them all.
Women’s 400m IM
Will Britain get their first Gold on Day One through Hannah Miley and how important is a good swim from Miley for the British team’s morale? Can Mireia Belmonte turn her SC form into LC dominance? Will the Chinese turn this event red?
BK - Based on recent comments from the new British Chief, it seems like the hopes and expectations of the British program have been more heavily weighted on Rebecca Adlington’s capable shoulders, than Miley’s, though an outperformance always lifts teams spirits.
Belmonte hasn’t been bad in long course, though not as explosive as she was in Dubai. I think she’s got the goods to swim long course -anyone with that kind of strength and endurance can figure things out long course-and I really hope she medals in this event.
BK Prediction - 1) Hannah Miley 2) Stephanie Rice 3) Katinka Hosszu. Wilcard – Kirsty Coventry. It’s easy to forget about her due to her long layoff, but if she even attempts this event at age 29, she’s got to be in the medal discussion.
What about the collegiate superstars-Julia Smit, Caitlin Leverenz, Elizabeth Beisel, and Katinka Hosszu? Which, if any, of the four do you guys think has the best shot at a medal? Hosszu’s got the history of the 2009 World Championship on her resume, but the rest are definitely making names for themselves.
DR - I see two groups of swimmers in this event. There are the standbys, Rice and Coventry and world champ Hosszu. Rice and Coventry are wildcards that did not swim internationally this year, so it will be interesting to see how they come back. Hosszu did not excel for the year after her world title, but she has come back nicely this college season.
Meanwhile, there are the relative newcomers. Hannah Miley swam very well to win European champs, as did Elizabeth Beisel at Pan Pacs and Yi Shiwen from China at Asian Games. All of them could win. Belmonte I still want to see swim long course before I declare anything, but she could definitely be in the mix. I see Beisel as clearly the top American in the event right now; she’s was impressive all of last year and has looked great in her first year at Florida. The other Americans -Leverenz and Smit are the top contenders right now- will be a factor as well.
This is wide open between 7 or so swimmers. I’ll pick: 1) Miley, 2) Beisel, 3) Rice. Pains me to leave Hosszu out, but I think those four are above the rest. Yi Shiwen (like all her teammates) scares me.
TW - I thought Hannah Miley’s win at European’s last year was one the best swims of 2010. She annihilated the red hot favourite Hosszu in-front of the Hungarian’s home crowd. My only nagging concern is that she doesn’t leave herself too much to do on the Breaststroke leg. She needs to stay within 1.0 to 1.5 seconds back of world class Fly and Back swimmers such as Hosszu, Rice, Beisel, Coventry etc. otherwise I’m not sure she will be able to overhaul the field. On Breaststroke her biggest challenge will come from Leverenz although the American needs to improve her backstroke to really challenge for the title.
British Swimming is far tougher mentally than it was a decade ago. It seemed like we used to turn up at major competitions hoping to do well, rather than believing we would do well. That mentality is starting to change and there is real self-belief, especially amongst the women. Despite the improvement in this field, I think Miley’s performance on Day One will be huge for Britain’s mental state. If Miley makes the final but doesn’t medal I think it will have a big deflating effect on team morale which will be hard to lift. On the flip side, should Miley come away with a medal (dare I say gold) watch out for huge performances from the rest of the team. Adlington will be the pinpoint of the nation’s (and media’s) focus, which unfortunately in this country can reach ridiculous levels of hype. You only need to look at England’s performances in the Football (Soccer) World Cups of the last 45 years to see what a negative effect the media’s pressure in Britain is capable of.
TW Prediction – 1) Ye Shiwen – strong in Fly, Back and Breast, world class on Freestyle. Her finishing speed should play well in major finals 2) Hannah Miley – has a great last 200m, needs to improve her Fly 3) Elizabeth Beisel – Fourth in 2008 aged 15, has the ability to blow the field away on the Backstroke. Mireia Belmonte is my wildcard pick. As she proved in Dubai she can beat the best in the world, but until she proves her LC form she can’t be considered a sure-fire medal contender.
BK – Very valid point about the British media…from what I glean off of it from overseas, it can be beyond ridiculous. If football (soccer) was a 10 on the scale of media attention, where would you put swimming at the moment?
TW - Football is a 10 on the media scale 365 days a year, unfortunately swimming probably rates about a 3 (which is still an improvement on the pre-Adlington & Beijing days). Athletics (Track and Field) is probably around 5 or 6, with a number of competitions televised live.
Women’s 4 x 100m Free Relay
China will surely be there (especially with the young Tang Yi on their roster), but can they catch the USA and the Dutch? Will the Netherlands be healthy long enough to win a relay that they seem to be strong favorites in? And can Libby Trickett added on to the Aussie team dramatically improve their chances at a medal?
BK - The Dutch are scary good when healthy, and are the defending champs. Kromowidjojo gives them the significant edge of having the singular best freestyler in the world. But man, have they had problems keeping that relay together. Veldhuis is aging and is now a mother, Dekker has been in-and-out of competition due to shoulder problems,, and Kromowidjojo had meningitis (though unlike the other two, that hopefully won’t be a recurring issue). My prediction is that the Netherlands will have to replace at least one of those first two for 2012, and their success will depend on that.
The Americans have a lot of young sprinters, as well as Jessica Hardy, who is continuing to develop her freestyle speed. I think they’re much improved from 2008, and are good for silver.
BK Predictions: 1) The Netherlands 2) USA 3) Germany. Germany is my wildcard pick here as well-Don’t have much depth past the top four, but with a healthy Britta Steffen, they probably have a 53-low and three 54-lows on this relay.
TW - I can’t see anyone getting past the Dutch in this event. Ranomi Kromowidjojo was undoubtedly the best sprint Freestyler last year and Femke Heemskerk has started 2011 off on fire. The scary part is how much stronger the supporting cast will become in time for London. Marleen Veldhuis and Inge Dekker now have clear paths ahead of them after their interruptions. Hinkelein Schreuder has pure speed in abundance and offers much needed competition and depth. I’m predicting Gold and a new World Record for the Dutch quartet.
USA has excellent depth and can call upon the likes of Coughlin, Vollmer, Hardy, Weir and Joyce. Missy Franklin could be spectacular when London rolls around and could be the difference between the US winning silver or possibly missing the medals. Trickett’s return is huge for Australia and their chances rest on how strong she is in London.
TW Prediction - 1) Holland 2) USA 3) Australia. Obvious wildcard given their depth but relative unknown nature – China.
DR - Tom, I disagree with your statement that the Dutch are unstoppable. Kromowidjojo and Heemskerk are on a roll, but Veldhuis and Dekker still have a ways to go to return to their 2009 form. The big drawback to the Dutch – compared to the French/Russian men’s 400 free relays and all American relays – is their lack of options. Schreuder seems more and more like a short course sprinter and much better at 50s in long course. If they end up using her, I think they could be in trouble.
The Americans, conversely, have numerous options. Coughlin, Vollmer, Hardy, Joyce, and Weir represent a strong core, Franklin is on fire, and Hoff, Scroggy, and Schmitt are unproven on this stage. Someone like Liv Jensen or Lia Neal could come out of the woodwork to surprise. But regardless, it should take 54-low (or better) flat start to get on this foursome.
We pretty much know who will be on the Dutch team. We think we know who will be on the American team. We have no clue about the Aussies. Trickett did not look outstanding at the Summer Swim Series, but she has time. Kukla, Coutts, and Seebohm all swam great last year, and Campbell will try to make a comeback after a disappointing couple of years. Galvez, Guehrer, Foster, Stubbins, and Barratt all have realistic shots. Unlike the Americans, it is not very clear how fast it will take to make the final team for this relay.
DR Prediction - 1) Netherlands, 2) USA, 3) Australia, but I think USA has a chance to win gold – about time too! – and the Germans and especially the Chinese are looming as darkhorses. Sweden is pretty good, with Sjostrum, Alshammar, and Lillhage. The French could also be a factor – Muffat has looked good as far down as the 100, and if Laure Manaudou’s comeback gets moving, she could be a boost to this one. British have some star power but need to find a bit more depth. The Canadians and New Zealand have teams that could final.
Friday, 25 February 2011
2012 British Championships to be held in the Olympic Aquatic Centre
Swimming fans will get their first chance to see a competition in the new Olympic Aquatics Centre with the 2012 British Championships scheduled to take place there.
This will also mark the first time London has been used for a national championship in over a decade. The last national competition I can remember being held in 'The Big Smoke' was the ASA National Championships at Crystal Palace in 2001.
Definitely one to get a ticket for.
Olympic Medalist Project: Part III
In Part I and Part II, we looked at how the medalists from the last three Olympic Games were ranked in the year prior to swimming's biggest event.
However, are world rankings really the best indicator to predict success? What about swimmer's who have the ability to 'raise their game' in the big competitions and vice versa. When studying the rankings from the year before the Olympics, I noticed a lot of the best times posted did not come from the World Championships, but instead from either Nationals/Trials or smaller meets in the winter. Therefore I decided to look at the medal winners from the last three Olympics and their performance in the World Championships in the previous year (note - the World Championships before the 2000 Olympics were held in 1998).
However, are world rankings really the best indicator to predict success? What about swimmer's who have the ability to 'raise their game' in the big competitions and vice versa. When studying the rankings from the year before the Olympics, I noticed a lot of the best times posted did not come from the World Championships, but instead from either Nationals/Trials or smaller meets in the winter. Therefore I decided to look at the medal winners from the last three Olympics and their performance in the World Championships in the previous year (note - the World Championships before the 2000 Olympics were held in 1998).
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