In
Part I and
Part II , we looked at how the medalists from the last three Olympic Games were ranked in the year prior to swimming's biggest event.
However, are world rankings really the best indicator to predict success? What about swimmer's who have the ability to 'raise their game' in the big competitions and vice versa. When studying the rankings from the year before the Olympics, I noticed a lot of the best times posted did not come from the World Championships, but instead from either Nationals/Trials or smaller meets in the winter. Therefore I decided to look at the medal winners from the last three Olympics and their performance in the World Championships in the previous year (note - the World Championships before the 2000 Olympics were held in 1998).
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2008/2007 Men .
Gold Silver Bronze .
2008 Result 50m Free Cielo Leveaux Bernard .
2007 Result 50m Free 6th DNC 9th .
2008 Result 100m Free Bernard Sullivan Lezak/Cielo .
2007 Result 100m Free 9th 3rd 5th/4th .
2008 Result 200m Free Phelps Park Vanderkaay .
2007 Result 200m Free 1st 3rd DNC .
2008 Result 400m Free Park Zhang Jensen .
2007 Result 400m Free 1st 11th DNC .
2008 Result 1500m Free Mellouli Hackett Cochrane .
2007 Result 1500m Free DNC 7th 15th .
2008 Result 100m Back Peirsol Grevers Vyatchanin/Stoeckel .
2007 Result 100m Back 1st DNC 4th/16th .
2008 Result 200m Back Lochte Peirsol Vyatchanin .
2007 Result 200m Back 1st 2nd 4th .
2008 Result 100m Breast Kitajima Dale Oen Duboscq .
2007 Result 100m Breast 2nd 8th 16th .
2008 Result 200m Breast Kitajima Rickard Duboscq .
2007 Result 200m Breast 1st 2nd DNC
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2008 Result 100m Fly Phelps Cavic Lauterstein .
2007 Result 100m Fly 1st 6th 15th .
2008 Result 200m Fly Phelps Cseh Matsuda .
2007 Result 200m Fly 1st DNC 9th .
2008 Result 200m IM Phelps Cseh Lochte .
2007 Result 200m IM 1st 3rd 2nd .
2008 Result 400m IM Phelps Cseh Lochte .
2007 Result 400m IM 1st 4th 2nd .
2008 Result 4 x 100 Free USA France Australia .
2007 Result 4 x 100 Free 1st 3rd 5th .
2008 Result 4 x 200 Free USA Russia Australia .
2007 Result 4 x 200 Free 1st 6th 2nd .
2008 Result 4 x 100 Medley USA Australia Japan .
2007 Result 4 x 100 Medley DQ 1st 2nd .
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Winners in 2007 and 2008 - 11/16 = 68.75% Medalists in 2007 and 2008 - 23/50 = 46% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 11/50 = 22% Non-finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 9/50 = 18% Did not compete in 2007 to Medalist in 2008 - 7/50 = 14% .
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2008/2007 Women .
Gold Silver Bronze
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2008 Result 50m Free Steffen Torres Campbell .
2007 Result 50m Free 4th DNC DNC .
2008 Result 100m Free Steffen Trickett Coughlin .
2007 Result 100m Free 3rd 1st 4th .
2008 Result 200m Free Pellegrini Isakovic Jiayang .
2007 Result 200m Free 3rd DNC 20th .
2008 Result 400m Free Adlington Hoff Jackson .
2007 Result 400m Free DNC 4th 7th .
2008 Result 800m Free Adlington Filippi Friis .
2007 Result 800m Free 10th DNC 11th .
2008 Result 100m Back Coughlin Coventry Hoelzer .
2007 Result 100m Back 1st 14th DNC .
2008 Result 200m Back Coventry Hoelzer Nakamura .
2007 Result 200m Back 2nd 1st 3rd .
2008 Result 100m Breast Jones Soni Jukic .
2007 Result 100m Breast 1st DNC 17th .
2008 Result 200m Breast Soni Jones Nordenstam .
2007 Result 200m Breast DNC 1st DNC .
2008 Result 100m Fly Trickett Magnuson Schipper .
2007 Result 100m Fly 1st DNC 3rd
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2008 Result 200m Fly Zige Liuyang Schipper .
2007 Result 200m Fly DNC 4th 1st .
2008 Result 200m IM Rice Coventry Coughlin .
2007 Result 200m IM 3rd 2nd DNC .
2008 Result 400m IM Rice Coventry Hoff .
2007 Result 400m IM 3rd DNC 1st .
2008 Result 4 x 100 Free NED USA AUS .
2007 Result 4 x 100 Free 3rd 2nd 1st .
2008 Result 4 x 200 Free AUS CHN USA .
2007 Result 4 x 200 Free 4th 9th 1st .
2008 Result 4 x 100 Medley AUS USA CHN .
2007 Result 4 x 100 Medley 1st 2nd 3rd .
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Winners in 2007 and 2008 - 4/16 = 25% Medalists in 2007 and 2008 - 24/48 = 50% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 5/48 = 10.42% Non-finalists 2007 to Medalists 2008 - 6/48 = 12.5% Did not compete in 2007 to Medalist in 2008 - 13/48 = 27.08% .
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2004/2003 Men .
Gold Silver Bronze .
2004 Result 50m Free Hall Jr Draganja Schoeman .
2003 Result 50m Free DNC 50th 17th
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2004 Result 100m Free Hoogenband Schoeman Thorpe .
2003 Result 100m Free 2nd 28th 3rd .
2004 Result 200m Free Thorpe Hoogenband Phelps .
2003 Result 200m Free 1st 2nd DNC .
2004 Result 400m Free Thorpe Hackett Keller .
2003 Result 400m Free 1st 2nd 5th .
2004 Result 1500m Free Hackett Jensen Davies .
2003 Result 1500m Free 1st 5th 4th .
2004 Result 100m Back Peirsol Rogan Morita .
2003 Result 100m Back 1st 5th 6th .
2004 Result 200m Back Peirsol Rogan Florea .
2003 Result 200m Back 1st 11th 7th .
2004 Result 100m Breast Kitajima Hansen Duboscq .
2003 Result 100m Breast 1st 2nd 8th .
2004 Result 200m Breast Kitajima Gyurta Hansen .
2003 Result 200m Breast 1st 14th 3rd .
2004 Result 100m Fly Phelps Crocker Serdinov .
2003 Result 100m Fly 2nd 1st 3rd .
2004 Result 200m Fly Phelps Yamamoto Parry .
2003 Result 200m Fly 1st 2nd 4th
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2004 Result 200m IM Phelps Lochte Bovell .
2003 Result 200m IM 1st DNC 5th .
2004 Result 400m IM Phelps Vendt Cseh .
2003 Result 400m IM 1st DNC 2nd .
2004 Result 4 x 100 Free RSA NED USA .
2003 Result 4 x 100 Free 8th 10th 2nd .
2004 Result 4 x 200 Free USA AUS ITA .
2003 Result 4 x 200 Free 2nd 1st 4th .
2004 Result 4 x 100 Medley USA GER JAP .
2003 Result 4 x 100 Medley 1st 11th 2nd .
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Winners in 2003 and 2004 - 11/16 = 68.75% Medalists in 2003 and 2004 - 26/48 = 54.2% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 11/48 = 22.9% Non-finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 7/48 = 14.6% Did not compete in 2003 to Medalist in 2004 - 4/48 = 8.3% .
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2004/2003 Women .
Gold Silver Bronze .
2004 Result 50m Free de Bruijn Metella Lenton .
2003 Result 50m Free 1st DNC 3rd .
2004 Result 100m Free Henry de Bruijn Coughlin .
2003 Result 100m Free 2nd DNC 31st
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2004 Result 200m Free Potec Pellegrini Figues .
2003 Result 200m Free DNC DNC 5th .
2004 Result 400m Free Manaudou Jedrzejczak Sandeno .
2003 Result 400m Free 13th DNC DNC .
2004 Result 800m Free Shibata Manaudou Munz .
2003 Result 800m Free 13th 19th 2nd .
2004 Result 100m Back Coughlin Coventry Manaudou .
2003 Result 100m Back 22nd 19th 11th .
2004 Result 200m Back Coventry Komarova Buschschulte/Nakamura .
2003 Result 200m Back 14th 3rd DNC/DNC .
2004 Result 100m Breast Xuejuan Hanson Jones .
2003 Result 100m Breast 1st 6th 3rd .
2004 Result 200m Breast Beard Jones Poleska .
2003 Result 200m Breast 1st 2nd 4th .
2004 Result 100m Fly Thomas Jedrzejczak de Bruijn .
2003 Result 100m Fly DNC 2nd DNC .
2004 Result 200m Fly Jedrzejczak Thomas Nakanishi .
2003 Result 200m Fly 1st DNC 3rd .
2004 Result 200m IM Klochkova Beard Coventry .
2003 Result 200m IM 1st DNC 9th
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2004 Result 400m IM Klochkova Sandeno Bardach .
2003 Result 400m IM 1st DNC 7th .
2004 Result 4 x 100 Free AUS USA NED .
2003 Result 4 x 100 Free 3rd 1st 4th .
2004 Result 4 x 200 Free USA CHN GER .
2003 Result 4 x 200 Free 1st 3rd 9th .
2004 Result 4 x 100 Medley AUS USA GER .
2003 Result 4 x 100 Medley 3rd 2nd 4th .
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Winners in 2003 and 2004 - 7/16 = 43.75% Medalists in 2003 and 2004 - 20/49 = 40.8% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 6/49 = 12.2% Non-finalists 2003 to Medalists 2004 - 10/49 = 20.4% Did not compete in 2003 to Medalist in 2004 - 13/49 = 26.5% .
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2000/1998 Men .
Gold Silver Bronze .
2000 Result 50m Free Ervin/Hall Jr Hoogenband .
1998 Result 50m Free DNC/DNC 7th .
2000 Result 100m Free V.d.Hoogenband Popov Hall Jr .
1998 Result 100m Free 4th 1st DNC .
2000 Result 200m Free V.d.Hoogenband Thorpe Rosolino .
1998 Result 200m Free 3rd DNC 2nd .
2000 Result 400m Free Thorpe Rosolino Keller
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1998 Result 400m Free 1st 5th DNC .
2000 Result 1500m Free Hackett Perkins Thompson .
1998 Result 1500m Free 1st DNC DNC .
2000 Result 100m Back Krayzelburg Welsh Theloke .
1998 Result 100m Back 1st 6th 3rd .
2000 Result 200m Back Krayzelburg Peirsol Welsh .
1998 Result 200m Back 1st DNC DNC .
2000 Result 100m Breast Fiorvanti Moses Sludnov .
1998 Result 100m Breast 5th DNC DNC .
2000 Result 200m Breast Fiorvanti Parkin Rummolo .
1998 Result 200m Breast 16th DNC DNC .
2000 Result 100m Fly Frolander Klim Huegill .
1998 Result 100m Fly 2nd 1st 3rd .
2000 Result 200m Fly Malchow Sylantyev Norris .
1998 Result 200m Fly 3rd 1st DNC .
2000 Result 200m IM Rosolino Dolan Wilkens .
1998 Result 200m IM DNC 8th DNC .
2000 Result 400m IM Dolan Vendt Myden .
1998 Result 400m IM 1st DNC 3rd .
2000 Result 4 x 100 Free AUS USA BRA
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1998 Result 4 x 100 Free 2nd 1st 6th .
2000 Result 4 x 200 Free AUS USA NED .
1998 Result 4 x 200 Free 1st 5th 2nd .
2000 Result 4 x 100 Medley USA AUS GER .
1998 Result 4 x 100 Medley 2nd 1st 4th .
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Winners in 1998 and 2000 - 6/17 = 35.29% Medalists in 1998 and 2000 - 21/48 = 43.75% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 9/48 = 18.75% Non-finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 1/48 = 2.08% Did not compete in 1998 to Medalist in 2000 - 17/48 = 35.41% .
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2000/1998 Women .
Gold Silver Bronze .
2000 Result 50m Free de Bruijn Alshammar Torres .
1998 Result 50m Free DNC 6th DNC .
2000 Result 100m Free de Bruijn Alshammar Torres/Thompson .
1998 Result 100m Free 8th DNC DNC/1st .
2000 Result 200m Free O'Neill Moravcova Poll .
1998 Result 200m Free 6th 2nd 1st .
2000 Result 400m Free Bennett Munz Poll .
1998 Result 400m Free 2nd 6th 8th
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2000 Result 800m Free Bennett Klochkova Sandeno .
1998 Result 800m Free 1st DNC DNC .
2000 Result 100m Back Mocanu Nakamura Zhivanevskaya .
1998 Result 100m Back DNC 2nd DNC .
2000 Result 200m Back Mocanu Maracineanu Nakao .
1998 Result 200m Back DNC 2nd 6th .
2000 Result 100m Breast Quann Jones Heyns .
1998 Result 100m Breast DNC DNC 5th .
2000 Result 200m Breast Kovacs Kowal Beard .
1998 Result 200m Breast 1st 2nd DNC .
2000 Result 100m Fly de Bruijn Moravcova Torres .
1998 Result 100m Fly 7th 6th DNC .
2000 Result 200m Fly Hyman O'Neill Thomas .
1998 Result 200m Fly 3rd 1st 2nd .
2000 Result 200m IM Klochkova Caslaru Teuscher .
1998 Result 200m IM 4th 7th DNC .
2000 Result 400m IM Klochkova Tajima Caslaru .
1998 Result 400m IM 2nd 3rd 9th .
2000 Result 4 x 100 Free USA NED SWE .
1998 Result 4 x 100 Free 1st 5th 4th
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2000 Result 4 x 200 Free USA AUS GER .
1998 Result 4 x 200 Free 2nd 3rd 1st .
2000 Result 4 x 100 Medley USA AUS JAP .
1998 Result 4 x 100 Medley 1st 2nd 3rd .
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Winners in 1998 and 2000 - 4/16 = 25% Medalists in 1998 and 2000 - 21/49 = 42.86% Non-Medal Winning Finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 14/49 = 28.57% Non-finalists 1998 to Medalists 2000 - 1/49 = 2.04% Did not compete in 1998 to Medalist in 2000 - 13/49 = 26.53%
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