With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
Women's 100m Free
Which two Dutch women will earn the individual spots here? Might Coughlin's medal chances be better here than in her signature backstroke?
Braden Keith - I think whoever emerges as the Dutch National Champion will eventually win the Olympic gold, and at this point all signs point towards a battle of the 1990 babies in London: Hometown girl Fran Halsall and Ranomi Kromowidjojo. Kromowidjojo should be out a little bit faster, and I think she's going to carry that lead through the turn and into the final wall. She went a 53.44 last year for the top time in the world, and that was in a March meet after she missed most of the big long course meets following a summer battle with Meningitis. She'll definitely clear the textile WR of 53.30, and could have as low as a 52 in her. Halsall's second, with the UK having to rely on their backstrokers and IM'er to earn gold for the home crowd.
I think Coughlin's chances of winning a medal, if not making the team, are way better here than in the 100 back. The domestic and international backstroke competition has gotten absolutely brutal for her, whereas the freestyle is much more wide open. It should be a diverse final, with a good possibility that 7 or 8 different countries will be represented.
Belarus' Aleksandra Herasimenia is intriguing to me. She had limitless potential prior to a doping suspension back in the mid-2000's, but she's not back at the top of the world rankings. She was the runner-up at Euro's last year, only losing to Halsall. At the Olympics, she'll be able to really focus on two individual races (the 50 and 100 freestyle) without having to worry much about relays or the backstroke (at World Champs, she's a favorite in the 50 back). I think that she sneaks in for the bronze.
Prediction - 1) Kromowidjojo 2) Halsall 3) Herasimenia
Darkhorse: Yi Tang - Last year, the Chinese women had a top-8 swimmer in every Olympic event, except for the two sprint freestyles. I can't believe that's going to last very long, and at only 18, Yi Tang is already the best the country has. In 2010 alone, she won 7 medals at the Asian Games (5 gold), and went 6-for-6 at the Youth Olympic Games. She made her first Olympic appearance in front of her home crowd at 15, and her second could result in some huge fireworks.
Showing posts with label swimming roundtable. Show all posts
Showing posts with label swimming roundtable. Show all posts
Saturday, 18 June 2011
Friday, 22 April 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 4 Roundtable Part I
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
Men's 100m Freestyle
Alain Bernard and Eamon Sullivan dominated this race in 2008, but will either swim this race in London? Can Cesar Cielo add the 100 free gold to his 50 free title from Beijing, or will a younger sprinter steal the crown? If he swims it, will Michael Phelps be a factor, and can an American win?
DR - I feel like Cielo still has something to prove in the 100 free, and it won't be an easy challenge for him with all of the great sprinters out there. For someone who's most natural event is the 50, it will be interesting to see how he deals with the actual 100 freestylers out there. Of course, he is the world champ and world record-holder, so never count him out!
I don't think Phelps will swim the 100 free because of the conflicts with the 200 fly and 800 free relay. (The 100 free semis come just before those two finals.) I think Phelps will put up a time that would win a medal as a relay lead-off, just as he did in Beijing, but the 200 fly is the priority for him still. Similarly, I think Ryan Lochte will skip the 100 free to focus on his many other events, such as the aforementioned relay and 200 back/200 IM, both of which have their semi-finals on the day of the 100 free final.
Men's 100m Freestyle
Alain Bernard and Eamon Sullivan dominated this race in 2008, but will either swim this race in London? Can Cesar Cielo add the 100 free gold to his 50 free title from Beijing, or will a younger sprinter steal the crown? If he swims it, will Michael Phelps be a factor, and can an American win?
DR - I feel like Cielo still has something to prove in the 100 free, and it won't be an easy challenge for him with all of the great sprinters out there. For someone who's most natural event is the 50, it will be interesting to see how he deals with the actual 100 freestylers out there. Of course, he is the world champ and world record-holder, so never count him out!
I don't think Phelps will swim the 100 free because of the conflicts with the 200 fly and 800 free relay. (The 100 free semis come just before those two finals.) I think Phelps will put up a time that would win a medal as a relay lead-off, just as he did in Beijing, but the 200 fly is the priority for him still. Similarly, I think Ryan Lochte will skip the 100 free to focus on his many other events, such as the aforementioned relay and 200 back/200 IM, both of which have their semi-finals on the day of the 100 free final.
Monday, 14 March 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 (Women's Events) Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable – Part II (Women's Events)
Women’s 100m Butterfly
DR - I’ll go with: 1) Sarah Sjostrum, 2) Christine Magnuson, 3) Fran Halsall, but totally wide open. Aussies will have a deep battle to qualify (Coutts, Schipper, Trickett, Galvez, Kukla), Chinese (Zige and Jiao) will be strong, Sweden’s Alshammar, Brits Halsall and Gandy, Americans Magnuson and Vollmer (or whoever)… well, you get the picture. Darkhorse: Jeanette Ottesen
Gandy’s also had some major consistency issues, but she’s starting to get those straightened out.
BK – The women’s events are really going to be hard to pick on day 1, a lot harder than the men’s. I suspect that there will be a lot less parity in our picks than we saw on the men’s side.
Sjostrom has GOTTA be the favorite. 57.3 in the same week that she turns 17? Unreal! Magnuson and Vollmer hung right with her (in a virtual meet sense) last season, but Sjostrom has only the sky as her ceiling in this race. Beyond that, things get a little murkier in my mind. Stephanie Rice has looked as good as ever coming back from her surgery, and if she wants to (though I’m not sure she will) she could take a run at a medal here. The two Americans are very strong, though Vollmer left me wanting just a little after her performances last year.
BK Predictions – 1) Sarah Sjostrom 2) Dana Vollmer 3) Yolane Kukla. Outside smoker pick would be Amit Ivri from Israel. It seems like every time she gets in the water, she’s near a personal best time. She’s really more of a 50 butterflier, but as she ages (she’s only 21) she’ll get stronger in the 100.
Is Kukla still too young to compete for Olympic medals? Unlike someone like Missy Franklin, is she going to hit a plateau because of her smaller stature?
TW - The women’s 100 Fly is brilliantly open. The Olympic final will likely have representatives from all corners of the globe. America’s Top 2 looks set (Vollmer & Magnuson) but Natalie Coughlin can never be counted out. The Australian trials for this event will be hotly contested, Yolane Kukla is rightfully getting a lot of buzz but I think we’ll need to wait for 2011 to pan out before we can really see where she will be in 2012. Is it possible to have a ‘sophomore slump’ in swimming? Schipper, Galvez and Guehrer always seem to get a spot on the team between them, and then you have Coutts and Seebohm who can really fly and have no schedule clash (unlike Steph Rice). Above all of them I like Trickett’s chances of coming back and making a big impact in the event she dominated in 2008.
I agree with all the reasons for Sjostrom doing well and she will be right there, along with Britain’s Fran Halsall. At a home Olympics I think we will see some swimmers rise to the occasion, and others unfortunately suffer from the pressure. Halsall’s certainly one I think will step up another level in front of the home crowd.
TW Prediction - 1) Trickett 2) Sjostrom 3) Halsall (GB’s first medal on Day 1). Wildcard – I like the Amit Ivri pick, but I am going with China’s Liu Zige. She defines wildcard perfectly, highly unpredictable but capable of beating them all.
Women’s 400m IM
Will Britain get their first Gold on Day One through Hannah Miley and how important is a good swim from Miley for the British team’s morale? Can Mireia Belmonte turn her SC form into LC dominance? Will the Chinese turn this event red?
BK - Based on recent comments from the new British Chief, it seems like the hopes and expectations of the British program have been more heavily weighted on Rebecca Adlington’s capable shoulders, than Miley’s, though an outperformance always lifts teams spirits.
Belmonte hasn’t been bad in long course, though not as explosive as she was in Dubai. I think she’s got the goods to swim long course -anyone with that kind of strength and endurance can figure things out long course-and I really hope she medals in this event.
BK Prediction - 1) Hannah Miley 2) Stephanie Rice 3) Katinka Hosszu. Wilcard – Kirsty Coventry. It’s easy to forget about her due to her long layoff, but if she even attempts this event at age 29, she’s got to be in the medal discussion.
What about the collegiate superstars-Julia Smit, Caitlin Leverenz, Elizabeth Beisel, and Katinka Hosszu? Which, if any, of the four do you guys think has the best shot at a medal? Hosszu’s got the history of the 2009 World Championship on her resume, but the rest are definitely making names for themselves.
DR - I see two groups of swimmers in this event. There are the standbys, Rice and Coventry and world champ Hosszu. Rice and Coventry are wildcards that did not swim internationally this year, so it will be interesting to see how they come back. Hosszu did not excel for the year after her world title, but she has come back nicely this college season.
Meanwhile, there are the relative newcomers. Hannah Miley swam very well to win European champs, as did Elizabeth Beisel at Pan Pacs and Yi Shiwen from China at Asian Games. All of them could win. Belmonte I still want to see swim long course before I declare anything, but she could definitely be in the mix. I see Beisel as clearly the top American in the event right now; she’s was impressive all of last year and has looked great in her first year at Florida. The other Americans -Leverenz and Smit are the top contenders right now- will be a factor as well.
This is wide open between 7 or so swimmers. I’ll pick: 1) Miley, 2) Beisel, 3) Rice. Pains me to leave Hosszu out, but I think those four are above the rest. Yi Shiwen (like all her teammates) scares me.
TW - I thought Hannah Miley’s win at European’s last year was one the best swims of 2010. She annihilated the red hot favourite Hosszu in-front of the Hungarian’s home crowd. My only nagging concern is that she doesn’t leave herself too much to do on the Breaststroke leg. She needs to stay within 1.0 to 1.5 seconds back of world class Fly and Back swimmers such as Hosszu, Rice, Beisel, Coventry etc. otherwise I’m not sure she will be able to overhaul the field. On Breaststroke her biggest challenge will come from Leverenz although the American needs to improve her backstroke to really challenge for the title.
British Swimming is far tougher mentally than it was a decade ago. It seemed like we used to turn up at major competitions hoping to do well, rather than believing we would do well. That mentality is starting to change and there is real self-belief, especially amongst the women. Despite the improvement in this field, I think Miley’s performance on Day One will be huge for Britain’s mental state. If Miley makes the final but doesn’t medal I think it will have a big deflating effect on team morale which will be hard to lift. On the flip side, should Miley come away with a medal (dare I say gold) watch out for huge performances from the rest of the team. Adlington will be the pinpoint of the nation’s (and media’s) focus, which unfortunately in this country can reach ridiculous levels of hype. You only need to look at England’s performances in the Football (Soccer) World Cups of the last 45 years to see what a negative effect the media’s pressure in Britain is capable of.
TW Prediction – 1) Ye Shiwen – strong in Fly, Back and Breast, world class on Freestyle. Her finishing speed should play well in major finals 2) Hannah Miley – has a great last 200m, needs to improve her Fly 3) Elizabeth Beisel – Fourth in 2008 aged 15, has the ability to blow the field away on the Backstroke. Mireia Belmonte is my wildcard pick. As she proved in Dubai she can beat the best in the world, but until she proves her LC form she can’t be considered a sure-fire medal contender.
BK – Very valid point about the British media…from what I glean off of it from overseas, it can be beyond ridiculous. If football (soccer) was a 10 on the scale of media attention, where would you put swimming at the moment?
TW - Football is a 10 on the media scale 365 days a year, unfortunately swimming probably rates about a 3 (which is still an improvement on the pre-Adlington & Beijing days). Athletics (Track and Field) is probably around 5 or 6, with a number of competitions televised live.
Women’s 4 x 100m Free Relay
China will surely be there (especially with the young Tang Yi on their roster), but can they catch the USA and the Dutch? Will the Netherlands be healthy long enough to win a relay that they seem to be strong favorites in? And can Libby Trickett added on to the Aussie team dramatically improve their chances at a medal?
BK - The Dutch are scary good when healthy, and are the defending champs. Kromowidjojo gives them the significant edge of having the singular best freestyler in the world. But man, have they had problems keeping that relay together. Veldhuis is aging and is now a mother, Dekker has been in-and-out of competition due to shoulder problems,, and Kromowidjojo had meningitis (though unlike the other two, that hopefully won’t be a recurring issue). My prediction is that the Netherlands will have to replace at least one of those first two for 2012, and their success will depend on that.
The Americans have a lot of young sprinters, as well as Jessica Hardy, who is continuing to develop her freestyle speed. I think they’re much improved from 2008, and are good for silver.
BK Predictions: 1) The Netherlands 2) USA 3) Germany. Germany is my wildcard pick here as well-Don’t have much depth past the top four, but with a healthy Britta Steffen, they probably have a 53-low and three 54-lows on this relay.
TW - I can’t see anyone getting past the Dutch in this event. Ranomi Kromowidjojo was undoubtedly the best sprint Freestyler last year and Femke Heemskerk has started 2011 off on fire. The scary part is how much stronger the supporting cast will become in time for London. Marleen Veldhuis and Inge Dekker now have clear paths ahead of them after their interruptions. Hinkelein Schreuder has pure speed in abundance and offers much needed competition and depth. I’m predicting Gold and a new World Record for the Dutch quartet.
USA has excellent depth and can call upon the likes of Coughlin, Vollmer, Hardy, Weir and Joyce. Missy Franklin could be spectacular when London rolls around and could be the difference between the US winning silver or possibly missing the medals. Trickett’s return is huge for Australia and their chances rest on how strong she is in London.
TW Prediction - 1) Holland 2) USA 3) Australia. Obvious wildcard given their depth but relative unknown nature – China.
DR - Tom, I disagree with your statement that the Dutch are unstoppable. Kromowidjojo and Heemskerk are on a roll, but Veldhuis and Dekker still have a ways to go to return to their 2009 form. The big drawback to the Dutch – compared to the French/Russian men’s 400 free relays and all American relays – is their lack of options. Schreuder seems more and more like a short course sprinter and much better at 50s in long course. If they end up using her, I think they could be in trouble.
The Americans, conversely, have numerous options. Coughlin, Vollmer, Hardy, Joyce, and Weir represent a strong core, Franklin is on fire, and Hoff, Scroggy, and Schmitt are unproven on this stage. Someone like Liv Jensen or Lia Neal could come out of the woodwork to surprise. But regardless, it should take 54-low (or better) flat start to get on this foursome.
We pretty much know who will be on the Dutch team. We think we know who will be on the American team. We have no clue about the Aussies. Trickett did not look outstanding at the Summer Swim Series, but she has time. Kukla, Coutts, and Seebohm all swam great last year, and Campbell will try to make a comeback after a disappointing couple of years. Galvez, Guehrer, Foster, Stubbins, and Barratt all have realistic shots. Unlike the Americans, it is not very clear how fast it will take to make the final team for this relay.
DR Prediction - 1) Netherlands, 2) USA, 3) Australia, but I think USA has a chance to win gold – about time too! – and the Germans and especially the Chinese are looming as darkhorses. Sweden is pretty good, with Sjostrum, Alshammar, and Lillhage. The French could also be a factor – Muffat has looked good as far down as the 100, and if Laure Manaudou’s comeback gets moving, she could be a boost to this one. British have some star power but need to find a bit more depth. The Canadians and New Zealand have teams that could final.
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle (BK) and David Rieder (theswimgeek.com) (DR). We start with the Men's events on Day One.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable
Men's 400m IM - With the same schedule as 2008 released, will Michael Phelps now reconsider his decision to drop the 400m IM from his list of events?
TW - I think the chances of Phelps swimming the 400m IM have increased slightly, although I remain sceptical that he will take the event on. He doesn't need to go for 8 events again and whilst Bob Bowman might have been able to persuade him to keep swimming it in 2008, I don't think he can this time around. If he's training for the 100m Free I just can't see him going for the 400 IM. The 400 Free on the other hand...
TW Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Cseh (If Mellouli didn't have the 400m Free, i'd pick him for Bronze). Wildcard - Chaoseng Huang, silver medalist at the Asian Games, just 16 years old and 1.90m tall. I'm taking him over the 1.69m tall, 20 year old gold medalist Yuya Horihata.
BK - I think you nailed it on the head, Tom. At this point, Phelps no longer has to prove his versatility by competing in the whole kitchen sink at the Olympics. It seems as though his goal now is to pick some very specific "pet" events, and prove to the world that he can beat any swimmer in the world in any specific event, rather than before when he had to prove that he could beat EVERY swimmer in EVERY event. With that sort of paradigm shift, the 400 IM is the natural event to drop.
BK Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Verraszto (the only swimmer near the top of the pile who actually DROPPED time after taking off the wetsuit). Wildcard: Chad le Clos-Like Tom's pick, this is another baby on the international scene. He's already huge, and has a frame that looks like it can handle a lot more muscle still.
DR - I think he made the decision to do it at Pan Pacs mostly because he saw an opening.. Now, there is no such motivation. Lochte and Clary have been 1-2 in the world the past two years. Anyone's pick for 1-2 in Shanghai and London. If this race wasn't the first of the meet, I'd give Clary a slight chance to beat Lochte in 16 months. But Lochte will be fresh and ready to go. I think both will beat Phelps' WR at either Trials, London, or both, and they should re-establish the US 1-2 tradition in the event. Dolan and Namesnik went 1-2 in 1996, Dolan and Vendt in 2000, and Phelps and Vendt in 2004. Cseh catching Lochte in 2008 shook things up obviously.
Now, it gets tricky. Someone else could (unlikely though) sneak into the top two. We saw the coming-out party of Conor Dwyer at SECs, 3:37 400 IM, which is a couple tenths of Lochte's best time. In December - when Dwyer had swam the race once ever - a coach told me he thinks Dwyer will make the team in the 400 IM. And on top of that, Robert Margalis, the perennial bridesmaid, won short course Nationals in a 3:40, pretty solid. Could be more up in the air than last time, where second-place Lochte went nearly 8 seconds faster than third-place Margalis.
DR Prediction - Tom is right that Mellouli would be a huge threat if it did not conflict with the 400 IM. As for Cseh, he struggled at this point in the last Olympic cycle too - lost European Short Course Champs, 5th at Worlds. He might be too good not to medal. Could be a tight race to qualify for Hungary too, with the likes of Verraszto and Gergo Kis. As for darkhorses, I too was thinking of Chad Le Clos, and also Israel's Gal Nevo and Brazil's Thiago Pereira have to be considered threats. To throw a name out: if Italy's Alessio Boggiatto is still swimming, he has finished fourth in the last three Olympics - no joke, it must be fate - and he was World Champ in 2001. Blast from the past!
Men's 400m Free - What role will World record-holder Paul Biedermann have in the race? Can Park Tae Hwan defend? How will the Chinese fit in? Will any Americans be ready to race the 400 and go for medals in London? Will anyone be under 3:40?
DR - To respond to Tom's post, I doubt Phelps steps up here. With such a rushed preparation, he needs to focus on 100s and 200s. Shame he never got the chance to show the world what he can do, and I think he would have gone sub-3:40 in Beijing.
I watched him race Cochrane and Rob Hurley in the 400 in Santa Clara in June 2009 (his second meet post-Beijing). Two bodylength lead at the 200, out in 1:51.0. Bodylength at the 350. Wins by a fingernail, 3:48.0. Hasn't swum it since.
DR Prediction 1) Park in a World Record; 2) Sun Yang, possibly also under 3:40, and 3) Agnel - he scares me.
Other established contenders: Zhang Lin, Peter Vanderkaay/Charlie Houchin/other Americans, Ryan Cochrane, Nikita Lobintsev. Darkhorses: Hurley/Ryan Napoleon - any Australians, Sebastian Rouault, Takeshi Matsuda (yes, he swims 400 free)
BK - If there's an American that can step up in the 400 free, I think that it's Peter Vanderkaay. He was good, though not awesome, in 2010, but he's now training in Gainesville. I can only imagine what working with Lochte day-in and day-out is going to do for his times.
Cochrane is another interesting name. He's going to be more dangerous in the longer distance, but he showed some potential in this race at Pan-Pacs.
Biedermann is still in this race. He proved in the World Cup and Dubai that he is not just a "suit swimmer" as he has been so harshly criticized in recent years. Don't think Agnel is ready yet in 2012, but I'm ready to just about hand him the Rio gold medal already.
BK Prediction: 1) Park; 2) Paul Biedermann; 3) Yang Sun With an upset special of Ryan Cochrane.
DR - A 400 long course is a different animal than short course. I have utmost (well almost) confidence in Biedermann's abilities to be in the hunt in the 200. I feel like that distance background (miles, 800s, etc.) are essential to be a factor against some of these other guys. I've also heard his focus is now on the 200...
TW - I see Biedermann making the final, but missing the medals as it stands right now. I think his heart lies in the 200 and the 'glamour' battles he faces in that event. One thing I will say for Biedermann, he is a great racer, if the final is a cagey affair and he has a chance in the last 100m I wouldn't bet against him.
Interesting fact - Apart from the boycotted 1980 games, there has never been an Olympic Top 3 in the 400m Free that hasn't included either an American or an Australian. I would say at this stage, that its looking more than likely we will see history being made in London. Right now I see it as a battle between Park Tae-Hwan, Sun Yang and Oussama Mellouli and I believe one, if not all three, will be sub-3:40 by 2012. Agnel is a scary prospect, but like Biedermann, I feel his speed makes him more suitable for the 200. What a great advert for the global reach of swimming to have a podium consisting only of athletes from Asia and Africa.
Its not looking like such a strong event for USA (or Australia). Peter Vanderkaay is a tremendous swimmer but he has a lot of ground to make up on the leading guys in the event. One possible source of hope for USA is my wildcard pick Conor Dwyer (assuming Lochte and Clary make the US team on the 400m IM). If he can translate his Short Course Yards swimming into Long Course Meters he could be a classic American Olympic contender who seemingly (to the non-American world) comes from nowhere.
TW Prediction - 1. Sun Yang (scary how good he could be next year), 2. Park Tae-Hwan, 3. Oussama Mellouli. Wildcard - Conor Dwyer.
BK - That's a great factoid Tom. I wonder if that has anything to do with the American paradigm shift where everyone wants to be an IM'er. The swimmers who previously would've had the mentality to do that middle-distance freestyle now instead all want to be IM'ers like Michael Phelps.
Men's 100m Breaststroke - In 2010, there's little doubt that Kitajima was the best breaststroker in the world. But by London 2012, he will be almost 30, and his countrymate Ryo Tateishi will just be hitting his prime. Is there any chance that Tateishi knocks him off? And what about the American situation. How much will Shanteau benefit from battling with Kitajima every day at Trojan, and what sort of potential does Alexandrov have in the long course pool? Does this leave Gangloff as the odd man out? And can Brenton Rickard get back on his form from 2009 after what was an admittedly off-the-wall season for the Aussies?
BK - I want to believe that Kitajima will have a dropoff, but he certainly didn't show it last year. Trojan seems to be the KINGS of breaststroke right now, and so I think Shanteau will have a lot of improvement between now and London. The second spot will be down to Alexandrov and Gangloff...I've gotta take a peaking Alexandrov over a declining Gangloff for the other spot in this race.
I think that Rickard needs to take his focus off of Shanghai, and use the first part of this year to really settle himself down. Between the mess in India, and the 47 or so Championship meets the Australians had, he was never able to hit his training cycles at the right intervals. If he can really take a long-term view of this training year, I think he'll be fine for London.
BK Prediction - 1) Kosuke Kitajima, 2) Ryo Tateishi (the heir apparent), and 3) Eric Shanteau. Darkhorse: Igor Borysik from the Ukraine...that national program is really starting to pull things together.
TW - I made a vow a few years ago to never doubt Kitajima in any race of importance, and you know what, it's worked out pretty well for me so far. He is the greatest breaststroker of all time and I expect him to sweep to victory in the 100m.
I love the Tateishi pick for silver. I'm not sure if the wider world realizes yet, but Japan has more depth in Men's Breaststroke than any other nation. Domestic competition only improves a nation's chances, so I can definitely see a Japan 1-2 in both the 100 and 200 Breast. Whether it is Tateishi or Naoya Tomita/Yuta Suenaga/Takuro Fujii is another story. The one threat I see to the Japanese dominance comes from Alexander Dale Oen. He didn't race with the techsuits in '09 and returned to form with a bang last year.
TW Predictions - 1. Kitajima. 2. Tateishi. 3. Dale Oen. Wildcard - Brendan Hansen. Whilst it hasn't been confirmed, by all accounts Hansen is back in training. Whilst Ed Moses has officially announced his return, in a long course pool Hansen is the one man that can get close to Kitajima's level.
BK - Dale Oen did have a good season last year, and maybe he will be bolstered by the fact that he was never spoiled by the tech suits. He's still capable of going lifetime bests, unlike much of his competition, and maybe this will keep him motivated. Does anyone know what Oen's current training situation is like?
Japan really has developed some incredible depth. Tateishi is young, and already had one of the best times in the world last year. Remembering that this meet is a year out, it seems hard that anyone at the top of the rankings (this is an aging group of breaststrokers, worldwide) will be able to catch him.
So Tom, what DO you see happening with the USA breaststrokers, besides obviously Hansen getting into the top two? Which of the other three do you see joining him, or do you think it will be an all-comeback squad of Moses and Hansen?
TW - USA Men's Breaststroke is seen as a weakness, but at the end of the day you still had the 8th (Gangloff), 9th (Alexandrov) and 11th (Shanteau) fastest guys in the world last year. You also have uber-talents Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen returning so its not all doom and gloom. It certainly should be strong enough to see you through in the 4 x 100 Medley relay.
If I had to pick the two US guys in the 100m at this point I would say Hansen and Alexandrov. Kind of a mix between an old head and a new talent. Hansen was incredible at his best and Alexandrov has a bright future ahead of him. I can see the Ed Moses comeback ending in a national final, but not much more than that. Shanteau I'd pick for the 200 and Gangloff is the odd man out.
DR - Unless you guys want to read novellas every night, let me respond! First of all: you guys need to look at the history of Tateishi. Always performs well in the spring meets, including Nationals, but never when it matters. At Pan Pacs, 1:00.09 in prelims; fourth in finals, with a time that would have won silver. Ninth in Rome, nowhere near his season best. You get the picture. Also a really small guy, and suits/taper do very little for him. Japan does have some stellar depth, but this is going to be an extremely tight race, and I can't imagine one country picking up two medals. And Suenaga announced his retirement yesterday, FYI. Something about not enjoying being obliterated by Kitajima.
Borysik is similar - inconsistent, and he's never had a big performance when it matters. Wildcard/darkhorse a good spot for him, but many others like him.
My prediction: 1) Dale Oen, 2) Kitajima, 3) van der Burgh
I am surprised neither of you has mentioned van der Burgh (1:00.10 at Commonwealth Games - big meet). He has far more explosive power than anyone in the field (perfect contrast with Tatieshi actually). As for Dale Oen, he missed the short course season with some sort of injury, forget what, but he's back at it. I honestly believe that this pick is not just that I don't want Kitajima to be the first to three-peat (Phelps' flys are a few days later).
Rickard (and Spenger) will be in the mix, as will both Americans. If Hansen has enough time, he has the capabilities to get to the level of Kitajima. Moses is unfulfilled potential. Of the three guys on the scene right now, only Alexandrov may be able to keep up with Hansen and Moses if they were to have a full preparation. He is still on the rise too. That said, never count out Shanteau or Gangloff. In late May, I told Chris DeSantis I didn't think Gangloff would be top-two this year. He proceeded to bust out a 1:00.7 at Paris Open and win bronze (ahead of Tatieshi) at Pan Pacs and make me look stupid. Will be tight - others like Marcus Titus also in the mix. I do think it will take under 1:00 to make the U.S. team.
No one talks about Hugues Duboscq either - is he a darkhorse, or do we just think he should be a dinosaur? Real darkhorses include Fabio Scozolli, Felipe Silva, and Daniel Gyurta - two 50 guys and a 200 guy. This is a very wide open event, and I could see times going out the window in the final. If that happens, it comes down to racing and pure guts - which is how someone like Brendan Hansen could win.
BK - But can we really pigeon-hole Tateishi into what he is when he's still only 21? All young swimmers have those consistency issues, but as he matures, I think he'll clear up some of those issues and perform better. I thought about van der Burgh. I thought, and thought, and thought. When I was going through swimmers in my head to pick for the top 3, his name kept popping up in my head, but I couldn't bring myself to pick him long course.
Duboscq is going to be almost 31 by then...and unlike Kitajima, he seems to be going the wrong direction.
DR - Who won bronze in Rome in the 100 breast as the youngest in the field? Right... Yeah I tend to forget about Duboscq - then he does something good.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable
Men's 400m IM - With the same schedule as 2008 released, will Michael Phelps now reconsider his decision to drop the 400m IM from his list of events?
TW - I think the chances of Phelps swimming the 400m IM have increased slightly, although I remain sceptical that he will take the event on. He doesn't need to go for 8 events again and whilst Bob Bowman might have been able to persuade him to keep swimming it in 2008, I don't think he can this time around. If he's training for the 100m Free I just can't see him going for the 400 IM. The 400 Free on the other hand...
TW Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Cseh (If Mellouli didn't have the 400m Free, i'd pick him for Bronze). Wildcard - Chaoseng Huang, silver medalist at the Asian Games, just 16 years old and 1.90m tall. I'm taking him over the 1.69m tall, 20 year old gold medalist Yuya Horihata.
BK - I think you nailed it on the head, Tom. At this point, Phelps no longer has to prove his versatility by competing in the whole kitchen sink at the Olympics. It seems as though his goal now is to pick some very specific "pet" events, and prove to the world that he can beat any swimmer in the world in any specific event, rather than before when he had to prove that he could beat EVERY swimmer in EVERY event. With that sort of paradigm shift, the 400 IM is the natural event to drop.
BK Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Verraszto (the only swimmer near the top of the pile who actually DROPPED time after taking off the wetsuit). Wildcard: Chad le Clos-Like Tom's pick, this is another baby on the international scene. He's already huge, and has a frame that looks like it can handle a lot more muscle still.
DR - I think he made the decision to do it at Pan Pacs mostly because he saw an opening.. Now, there is no such motivation. Lochte and Clary have been 1-2 in the world the past two years. Anyone's pick for 1-2 in Shanghai and London. If this race wasn't the first of the meet, I'd give Clary a slight chance to beat Lochte in 16 months. But Lochte will be fresh and ready to go. I think both will beat Phelps' WR at either Trials, London, or both, and they should re-establish the US 1-2 tradition in the event. Dolan and Namesnik went 1-2 in 1996, Dolan and Vendt in 2000, and Phelps and Vendt in 2004. Cseh catching Lochte in 2008 shook things up obviously.
Now, it gets tricky. Someone else could (unlikely though) sneak into the top two. We saw the coming-out party of Conor Dwyer at SECs, 3:37 400 IM, which is a couple tenths of Lochte's best time. In December - when Dwyer had swam the race once ever - a coach told me he thinks Dwyer will make the team in the 400 IM. And on top of that, Robert Margalis, the perennial bridesmaid, won short course Nationals in a 3:40, pretty solid. Could be more up in the air than last time, where second-place Lochte went nearly 8 seconds faster than third-place Margalis.
DR Prediction - Tom is right that Mellouli would be a huge threat if it did not conflict with the 400 IM. As for Cseh, he struggled at this point in the last Olympic cycle too - lost European Short Course Champs, 5th at Worlds. He might be too good not to medal. Could be a tight race to qualify for Hungary too, with the likes of Verraszto and Gergo Kis. As for darkhorses, I too was thinking of Chad Le Clos, and also Israel's Gal Nevo and Brazil's Thiago Pereira have to be considered threats. To throw a name out: if Italy's Alessio Boggiatto is still swimming, he has finished fourth in the last three Olympics - no joke, it must be fate - and he was World Champ in 2001. Blast from the past!
Men's 400m Free - What role will World record-holder Paul Biedermann have in the race? Can Park Tae Hwan defend? How will the Chinese fit in? Will any Americans be ready to race the 400 and go for medals in London? Will anyone be under 3:40?
DR - To respond to Tom's post, I doubt Phelps steps up here. With such a rushed preparation, he needs to focus on 100s and 200s. Shame he never got the chance to show the world what he can do, and I think he would have gone sub-3:40 in Beijing.
I watched him race Cochrane and Rob Hurley in the 400 in Santa Clara in June 2009 (his second meet post-Beijing). Two bodylength lead at the 200, out in 1:51.0. Bodylength at the 350. Wins by a fingernail, 3:48.0. Hasn't swum it since.
Biedermann is going to have to focus on the 200 for a chance at an Olympic medal. Just can't see him making a mark in the 400 long course anymore with the Asian guys and even Mellouli at full force.
DR Prediction 1) Park in a World Record; 2) Sun Yang, possibly also under 3:40, and 3) Agnel - he scares me.
Other established contenders: Zhang Lin, Peter Vanderkaay/Charlie Houchin/other Americans, Ryan Cochrane, Nikita Lobintsev. Darkhorses: Hurley/Ryan Napoleon - any Australians, Sebastian Rouault, Takeshi Matsuda (yes, he swims 400 free)
BK - If there's an American that can step up in the 400 free, I think that it's Peter Vanderkaay. He was good, though not awesome, in 2010, but he's now training in Gainesville. I can only imagine what working with Lochte day-in and day-out is going to do for his times.
Cochrane is another interesting name. He's going to be more dangerous in the longer distance, but he showed some potential in this race at Pan-Pacs.
Biedermann is still in this race. He proved in the World Cup and Dubai that he is not just a "suit swimmer" as he has been so harshly criticized in recent years. Don't think Agnel is ready yet in 2012, but I'm ready to just about hand him the Rio gold medal already.
BK Prediction: 1) Park; 2) Paul Biedermann; 3) Yang Sun With an upset special of Ryan Cochrane.
DR - A 400 long course is a different animal than short course. I have utmost (well almost) confidence in Biedermann's abilities to be in the hunt in the 200. I feel like that distance background (miles, 800s, etc.) are essential to be a factor against some of these other guys. I've also heard his focus is now on the 200...
TW - I see Biedermann making the final, but missing the medals as it stands right now. I think his heart lies in the 200 and the 'glamour' battles he faces in that event. One thing I will say for Biedermann, he is a great racer, if the final is a cagey affair and he has a chance in the last 100m I wouldn't bet against him.
Interesting fact - Apart from the boycotted 1980 games, there has never been an Olympic Top 3 in the 400m Free that hasn't included either an American or an Australian. I would say at this stage, that its looking more than likely we will see history being made in London. Right now I see it as a battle between Park Tae-Hwan, Sun Yang and Oussama Mellouli and I believe one, if not all three, will be sub-3:40 by 2012. Agnel is a scary prospect, but like Biedermann, I feel his speed makes him more suitable for the 200. What a great advert for the global reach of swimming to have a podium consisting only of athletes from Asia and Africa.
Its not looking like such a strong event for USA (or Australia). Peter Vanderkaay is a tremendous swimmer but he has a lot of ground to make up on the leading guys in the event. One possible source of hope for USA is my wildcard pick Conor Dwyer (assuming Lochte and Clary make the US team on the 400m IM). If he can translate his Short Course Yards swimming into Long Course Meters he could be a classic American Olympic contender who seemingly (to the non-American world) comes from nowhere.
TW Prediction - 1. Sun Yang (scary how good he could be next year), 2. Park Tae-Hwan, 3. Oussama Mellouli. Wildcard - Conor Dwyer.
BK - That's a great factoid Tom. I wonder if that has anything to do with the American paradigm shift where everyone wants to be an IM'er. The swimmers who previously would've had the mentality to do that middle-distance freestyle now instead all want to be IM'ers like Michael Phelps.
Men's 100m Breaststroke - In 2010, there's little doubt that Kitajima was the best breaststroker in the world. But by London 2012, he will be almost 30, and his countrymate Ryo Tateishi will just be hitting his prime. Is there any chance that Tateishi knocks him off? And what about the American situation. How much will Shanteau benefit from battling with Kitajima every day at Trojan, and what sort of potential does Alexandrov have in the long course pool? Does this leave Gangloff as the odd man out? And can Brenton Rickard get back on his form from 2009 after what was an admittedly off-the-wall season for the Aussies?
BK - I want to believe that Kitajima will have a dropoff, but he certainly didn't show it last year. Trojan seems to be the KINGS of breaststroke right now, and so I think Shanteau will have a lot of improvement between now and London. The second spot will be down to Alexandrov and Gangloff...I've gotta take a peaking Alexandrov over a declining Gangloff for the other spot in this race.
I think that Rickard needs to take his focus off of Shanghai, and use the first part of this year to really settle himself down. Between the mess in India, and the 47 or so Championship meets the Australians had, he was never able to hit his training cycles at the right intervals. If he can really take a long-term view of this training year, I think he'll be fine for London.
BK Prediction - 1) Kosuke Kitajima, 2) Ryo Tateishi (the heir apparent), and 3) Eric Shanteau. Darkhorse: Igor Borysik from the Ukraine...that national program is really starting to pull things together.
TW - I made a vow a few years ago to never doubt Kitajima in any race of importance, and you know what, it's worked out pretty well for me so far. He is the greatest breaststroker of all time and I expect him to sweep to victory in the 100m.
I love the Tateishi pick for silver. I'm not sure if the wider world realizes yet, but Japan has more depth in Men's Breaststroke than any other nation. Domestic competition only improves a nation's chances, so I can definitely see a Japan 1-2 in both the 100 and 200 Breast. Whether it is Tateishi or Naoya Tomita/Yuta Suenaga/Takuro Fujii is another story. The one threat I see to the Japanese dominance comes from Alexander Dale Oen. He didn't race with the techsuits in '09 and returned to form with a bang last year.
TW Predictions - 1. Kitajima. 2. Tateishi. 3. Dale Oen. Wildcard - Brendan Hansen. Whilst it hasn't been confirmed, by all accounts Hansen is back in training. Whilst Ed Moses has officially announced his return, in a long course pool Hansen is the one man that can get close to Kitajima's level.
BK - Dale Oen did have a good season last year, and maybe he will be bolstered by the fact that he was never spoiled by the tech suits. He's still capable of going lifetime bests, unlike much of his competition, and maybe this will keep him motivated. Does anyone know what Oen's current training situation is like?
Japan really has developed some incredible depth. Tateishi is young, and already had one of the best times in the world last year. Remembering that this meet is a year out, it seems hard that anyone at the top of the rankings (this is an aging group of breaststrokers, worldwide) will be able to catch him.
So Tom, what DO you see happening with the USA breaststrokers, besides obviously Hansen getting into the top two? Which of the other three do you see joining him, or do you think it will be an all-comeback squad of Moses and Hansen?
TW - USA Men's Breaststroke is seen as a weakness, but at the end of the day you still had the 8th (Gangloff), 9th (Alexandrov) and 11th (Shanteau) fastest guys in the world last year. You also have uber-talents Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen returning so its not all doom and gloom. It certainly should be strong enough to see you through in the 4 x 100 Medley relay.
If I had to pick the two US guys in the 100m at this point I would say Hansen and Alexandrov. Kind of a mix between an old head and a new talent. Hansen was incredible at his best and Alexandrov has a bright future ahead of him. I can see the Ed Moses comeback ending in a national final, but not much more than that. Shanteau I'd pick for the 200 and Gangloff is the odd man out.
DR - Unless you guys want to read novellas every night, let me respond! First of all: you guys need to look at the history of Tateishi. Always performs well in the spring meets, including Nationals, but never when it matters. At Pan Pacs, 1:00.09 in prelims; fourth in finals, with a time that would have won silver. Ninth in Rome, nowhere near his season best. You get the picture. Also a really small guy, and suits/taper do very little for him. Japan does have some stellar depth, but this is going to be an extremely tight race, and I can't imagine one country picking up two medals. And Suenaga announced his retirement yesterday, FYI. Something about not enjoying being obliterated by Kitajima.
Borysik is similar - inconsistent, and he's never had a big performance when it matters. Wildcard/darkhorse a good spot for him, but many others like him.
My prediction: 1) Dale Oen, 2) Kitajima, 3) van der Burgh
I am surprised neither of you has mentioned van der Burgh (1:00.10 at Commonwealth Games - big meet). He has far more explosive power than anyone in the field (perfect contrast with Tatieshi actually). As for Dale Oen, he missed the short course season with some sort of injury, forget what, but he's back at it. I honestly believe that this pick is not just that I don't want Kitajima to be the first to three-peat (Phelps' flys are a few days later).
Rickard (and Spenger) will be in the mix, as will both Americans. If Hansen has enough time, he has the capabilities to get to the level of Kitajima. Moses is unfulfilled potential. Of the three guys on the scene right now, only Alexandrov may be able to keep up with Hansen and Moses if they were to have a full preparation. He is still on the rise too. That said, never count out Shanteau or Gangloff. In late May, I told Chris DeSantis I didn't think Gangloff would be top-two this year. He proceeded to bust out a 1:00.7 at Paris Open and win bronze (ahead of Tatieshi) at Pan Pacs and make me look stupid. Will be tight - others like Marcus Titus also in the mix. I do think it will take under 1:00 to make the U.S. team.
No one talks about Hugues Duboscq either - is he a darkhorse, or do we just think he should be a dinosaur? Real darkhorses include Fabio Scozolli, Felipe Silva, and Daniel Gyurta - two 50 guys and a 200 guy. This is a very wide open event, and I could see times going out the window in the final. If that happens, it comes down to racing and pure guts - which is how someone like Brendan Hansen could win.
BK - But can we really pigeon-hole Tateishi into what he is when he's still only 21? All young swimmers have those consistency issues, but as he matures, I think he'll clear up some of those issues and perform better. I thought about van der Burgh. I thought, and thought, and thought. When I was going through swimmers in my head to pick for the top 3, his name kept popping up in my head, but I couldn't bring myself to pick him long course.
Duboscq is going to be almost 31 by then...and unlike Kitajima, he seems to be going the wrong direction.
DR - Who won bronze in Rome in the 100 breast as the youngest in the field? Right... Yeah I tend to forget about Duboscq - then he does something good.
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