Taking A Closer Look at Hannah Miley's 4:32.67 400m IM

Day One of the British Olympic trials saw Hannah Miley set a new textile lifetime best in the 400m IM and moved herself to the top of this year's world rankings.

Her time of 4:32.67 was 1.55 seconds faster than her silver medal winning performance at the World Championships and brings her to within a second of Elizabeth Beisel's textile best time from Shanghai.

As one of the comments on this site pointed out, Miley's 300m split was actually faster than Beisel's. So where has Miley made improvements since Shanghai?

Miley Shanghai - Fly - 30.3/1:03.97 - Back - 35.6/1:10.64 - Breast - 38.3/1:16.98 - Free - 32.2/1:02.63
Miley London - Fly - 29.8/1:03.10 - Back - 34.7/1:09.36 - Breast - 37.9/1:16.77 - Free - 32.2/1:03.44

Miley's improved her splits on every stroke up until 300m with the biggest improvements on her Backstroke and Butterfly. A notoriously slow starter, being closer to the field over the first 200m should serve Miley well.

Elizabeth Beisel established herself as the clear world number one in this event, here is how her Shanghai splits match up to those of the Scot (with overall lead in brackets). In a virtual head-to-head the lead changes with every stroke:

Beisel Shanghai - Fly - 29.6/1:03.32 (+0.22 behind Miley) - Back - 34.7/1:08.64 (-0.50 in front) - Breast - 38.5/1:17.84 (+0.57) - Free - 31.2/1:01.98 (-0.89)

Miley's greatest weapon in the Medley continues to be her Breaststroke. Among the world's top IMers only Caitlin Leverenz has a better Breaststroke leg and until now the American hasn't been able to match Miley's Backstroke or Freestyle. The biggest step forward that Miley made yesterday was on her Backstroke, getting within 0.7 seconds of Beisel's world class Backstroke.

The challenge now for Miley (and her coach who happens to be her father) is to make sure that she can drop even more time at the Olympics. It was something she had failed to do in 2008 and 2009, but has dropped time in both of the last two major championships, boding well for London.

The only negative from yesterday's swim was the freestyle leg. It was a full 0.8 seconds slower than Miley's closing 100 at Worlds and nearly 1.5 seconds slower than Beisel's Shanghai closing speed. Given that Miley is a more than competent freestyler, this comes as a slight surprise. Both women's freestyle times are similar, in 2011 Beisel swam 1:59.17 and 4:08.57 in the 200m and 400m Free, compared to Miley's 1:59.34 and 4:09.59.

At the Olympics with the home crowd cheering on Miley and potentially being at the head of the field, it may be enough to get Great Britain off to a golden start.

Cesar Cielo 47.84 100m Freestyle, 47.07 Relay Split (With Video)

Apparently 2011 still has more fast long course swimming to offer. At the Pan American Games in Guadalajara, Cesar Cielo posted a smoking 47.84 in the 100m Freestyle. If the time looks familiar it is because Cielo equalled Pieter Van den Hoogenband's previous long standing world record (and former textile best time).

Cielo remains 0.35 seconds shy of James Magnussen's 47.49 relay lead-off leg from Shanghai, but his swim serves as a reminder that he will be a major force in London after a disappointing 4th place at the World Championships.

It seems like Magnussen's way of the racing the event (conserving energy on the first 50 and blowing past the competition on the 2nd 50m) has changed the way Cielo is swimming the race. In Shanghai Cielo went out in 22.63 and came back in 25.38. In Guadalajara he turned in 22.84 and came back in 25.00. It's a smart move from the Brazilian. Magnussen currently enjoys a mental edge over the competition, knowing that he can catch and pass the field. When you can see that you are catching and passing other swimmers it gives you a huge lift, a "second wind" if you like. Think of how many races you see seemingly unsurmountable leads overcome with a stunning last 50m split. If Cielo is able to limit the rate at which the Australian catches him, we're yet to see how it will affect Magnussen's sprint to the wall.

Cielo's relay split of 47.07 further highlights this new race pace. He turned in 22.54 (with the aid of a relay start this probably converts to a 23.0/23.1 from a flat start), before turning on the jets on the second 50m with a split of 24.53. If you watch the video below (starting at 7:25) you can clearly see Cielo increase his stroke rate and leg kick at 45m going into the wall, before going all-out on the second 50m. Reports coming out of Brazil are that Cielo is doing a lot more metres in his training than he did at Auburn. This seems to be paying off with his new found endurance on the second 50m of races.

Upcoming Dates in the 2011 Swimming Calendar

It's been a relatively quiet time since the World Championships finished back in late July, but the year still has a lot of offer. Here is a rundown of what swimming fans have to look forward to for the rest of the year.

October

Oct 7 - Nov 13 - World Cup Series (Dubai, Stockholm, Moscow, Berlin, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo) (SCM)
Oct 15 - Oct 22 - Pan American Games (LCM)
Oct 18 - Oct 19 - Michael Phelps swimming at the Moscow World Cup meet (SCM)
Oct 31 - Nov 1 - Trofeo Internazionale di Nuoto "Nico Sapio", Genoa, Italy. Feat: Laure Manaudou & Natalie Coughlin (SCM)

November

Nov 4 - Nov 5 - Ian Thorpe's return to competitive swimming at the Singapore World Cup meet (SCM)
Nov 11- Nov 13 - Minneapolis Grand Prix (LCM)

December

Dec 1 - Dec 3 - US Winter Nationals (LCM)
Dec 8 - Dec 12 - European Short Course Championships (SCM)
Dec 8 - Dec 10 - US Short Course Junior Nationals (SCY)
Dec 16 - Dec 17 - Duel in the Pool (SCM)

London 2012 Marathon Swimming Test Event - Eyewitness Report (Pulitzer Edition)

The things I do for this blog. Last Saturday I should have been chilling out, recovering creatively ahead of another hard week of swim blogging... instead I braved London transport on a weekend and headed down to Hyde Park for the London 2012 Marathon Swimming Test Event. Here is what I learnt, heard and saw (in picture form)


What I learnt

- Melissa Gorman (AUS) is kind of tall...

- Eva Fabian (USA) is kind of short...

- If a swimmer was ever to replace Chuck Norris as the world's toughest guy, Thomas Lurz (GER) is probably your guy on looks alone...

- The setting for this race is incredible. It doesn't get much better than Hyde Park on a normal summer's day, but with the added Olympic buzz thrown in it will be electric...

- You can walk alongside the swimmers for most of the course... or there is seating/standing with commentary and a big video screen. I kind of preferred walking...

- You can't rent a pedalo while the race is happening...

What I heard

I didn't make it into the post-race press conference, so I went in gonzo-style. This was overheard on the walk to the drug testing room with men's winner Richard Weinberger, his coach, two drug testers and a swim blogger walking just a little too close to them to be considered normal:

- Water temperature was great...
- He tries to swim 80k every week...
- The best way to put on weight is to drink McDonald's milkshakes, which are full of protein and calcium...

What I saw

The Setting

Pulitzer Prize Entry 1

Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 5 Roundtable (Women's)

With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.
 

Women's 100m Free
Which two Dutch women will earn the individual spots here? Might Coughlin's medal chances be better here than in her signature backstroke?

Braden Keith - I think whoever emerges as the Dutch National Champion will eventually win the Olympic gold, and at this point all signs point towards a battle of the 1990 babies in London: Hometown girl Fran Halsall and Ranomi Kromowidjojo. Kromowidjojo should be out a little bit faster, and I think she's going to carry that lead through the turn and into the final wall. She went a 53.44 last year for the top time in the world, and that was in a March meet after she missed most of the big long course meets following a summer battle with Meningitis. She'll definitely clear the textile WR of 53.30, and could have as low as a 52 in her. Halsall's second, with the UK having to rely on their backstrokers and IM'er to earn gold for the home crowd.

I think Coughlin's chances of winning a medal, if not making the team, are way better here than in the 100 back. The domestic and international backstroke competition has gotten absolutely brutal for her, whereas the freestyle is much more wide open. It should be a diverse final, with a good possibility that 7 or 8 different countries will be represented.

Belarus' Aleksandra Herasimenia is intriguing to me. She had limitless potential prior to a doping suspension back in the mid-2000's, but she's not back at the top of the world rankings. She was the runner-up at Euro's last year, only losing to Halsall. At the Olympics, she'll be able to really focus on two individual races (the 50 and 100 freestyle) without having to worry much about relays or the backstroke (at World Champs, she's a favorite in the 50 back). I think that she sneaks in for the bronze.

Prediction - 1) Kromowidjojo 2) Halsall 3) Herasimenia

Darkhorse: Yi Tang - Last year, the Chinese women had a top-8 swimmer in every Olympic event, except for the two sprint freestyles. I can't believe that's going to last very long, and at only 18, Yi Tang is already the best the country has. In 2010 alone, she won 7 medals at the Asian Games (5 gold), and went 6-for-6 at the Youth Olympic Games. She made her first Olympic appearance in front of her home crowd at 15, and her second could result in some huge fireworks.

Latest Score: Ian Thorpe 1 - Michael Phelps 0

Ian Thorpe has struck first in his renewed rivalry with Michael Phelps. The score as it stands now:-

Royal Wedding Attendances: Ian Thorpe 1 - Michael Phelps 0

PS. He looks in much better shape than when he announced his comeback in early February (below). This appearance seems to back up recent reports coming out of Switzerland that the comeback is going well.

UPDATE with video of Thorpe arriving.

Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 3 Roundtable

With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.


Men’s 200m Butterfly

BK - Phelps is back, and seems to be serious again. With London in sight, I expect that he'll carry that momentum through the duration. He went a 1:54.1 in this event in debatable shape, and in good shape, he's going to put up a 1:53-low or better, and that will be that.

The top 3 in the world last year, Phelps, Matsuda, and D'Arcy, all lined up next to each other last summer at Pan Pacs. It's a great demonstration of the differences in technique betwen the 3 swimmers, and after seeing that, it's hard to buy D'Arcy finishing any higher than 3rd. D'Arcy is strong and has great walls, but he has to be that way to match the efficiency of the other 2 swimmers. I actually think he'll get nipped by Wu Peng of China for a medal too.

Picks: 1) Phelps, 2) Matsuda, 3) Peng. Darkhorse: Bence Biczo from Hungary. He set the European Juniors record last year in Helsinki, and pulled off the 200 fly double at both European Juniors and the Youth Olympic Games. Chad Le Clos gets all of the youth hype in this event, but Biczo might be better than him at this point.

DR- Only 1:53-low on phelps? I'd say probably a WR or at least very close. Good chance of 1:50 or even... 1:49?

Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 2 (Men's Events) Roundtable

With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points. I sat down with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle(BK) and David Rieder of TheSwimGeek.com (DR) to hack, dig, crawl, and otherwise muddle our way through the Olympic Schedule.

To catch up on the previous discussions:
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 (Men's Events) Roundtable
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 (Women's Events) Roundtable

2012 Olympics Day Two Roundtable – Part I (Men's Events)

200m Freestyle

On paper, defending champion Michael Phelps and WR Holder/World Champ Paul Biedermann are the favorites, but can they win? How will this event fit into Lochte's program?

BK - If Lochte chases 8 golds, then he's going to have his two biggest challenges, unfortunately, on the same day with the 200 free and later the 100 back. Personally, I think he's going to focus on 7, and drops the 100 back, which makes the 200 free much more feasible.

We see that Phelps is serious about his training again. Bob Bowman is happy with how he's been training (and he wouldn’t have said that if he didn't mean it), so I feel much more comfortable picking him for a medal than I would have done a few week ago. I think that the top 3 are fairly safe picks in Lochte, Park, and Phelps (in any particular order), but I'm still convinced that Biedermann has shown enough sparks to be in there. This is a touch pick, because there's about 5 guys I want to give medals to.

Agnel and Sun are getting much, much better, but those top 3 just aren't going anywhere yet. The youngsters will have to wait their turn in this race.

Prediction - 1) Lochte 2) Park 3) Phelps - Wildcard: Robbie Renwick (GB). He was the Commonwealth champ, and the coaches in the UK have really hit something special with their female mid-distance swimmers, it's only a matter of time until that trickles over to the men's side.

TW- Renwick? With all the stars in this event I was not expecting that. I think making the final is the best he can hope for. A Semi final is more likely. I also think the top 3 are far from safe picks!

Without doubt this is swimming's Hollywood event. There are so many story lines; Lochte v Phelps. Phelps v Biedermann. Biedermann v Agnel. East v West etc. Now we can add some Ian Thorpe hype to that list.

Thorpe will only swim this event if he knows for sure he has a shot at a medal, otherwise it makes no sense for his legacy to be 'just' a finalist.

As hard as I try to make the argument for the other guys, at 100% I don't see Phelps losing. I also think the entire field will be split by fractions, making predictions extremely hard. The talent this event has is mind blowing: Biedermann, Agnel, Izotov, Lobintsev, Mellouli, all of these guys have a great shot at finishing in the top three.

Prediction (ask me in a few weeks and it will have changed again) - 1) Phelps 2) Lochte 3) Park - Wildcard - Sun Yang. Yes he is a 1500m specialist, but so was Grant Hackett who had no problems dropping down to 200. Agnel could just as easily take this spot.

DR - Ok you guys covered most of the bases. I'll start with the predictions: 1) Phelps 2) Lochte 3) Park. All the guys you mentioned will be in the mix - so basically the entire final will probably be 1:45 or better. Darkhorses: Sebaastian Verschuren - been steadily improving since surprisingly making the final in Rome. Thomas Fraser-Holmes - I picked this guy for Commonwealths where he bombed the final but ended up posting a 1:47.0 leading off the relay. Not as young as Agnel or Izotov but he's coming up as well. (Put him, Thorpe, and Monk on a relay and you have a solid bronze medal!)

BK - I know Renwick is a bit out of left field, but hey, that's the beauty of a wildcard pick! I think that it would be a wildly successful outing for him if he can place top 6...which is what I'm pegging him for.

Fraser-Holmes is still a great upset pick for a medal, David, especially if the Australian team can settle in. There were a million things that could've affected his performance at the Commonwealth Games, and here's to hoping that Thorpe, at the very least, reinvigorates that program.

TW - I still can't see either Renwick or Fraser-Holmes having a serious impact on this event. Verschuren I rate highly and was close to listing him as a potential medalist, although he still needs to drop a chunk of time to contend.

Who's your Russian? Danila '1:43.9 wearing only legs' Izotov, or Nikita 'Mr. Consistenski' Lobintsev.

BK - Both are going to be awesome. At the moment, I've gotta say Lobintsev, but Izotov is still just a baby.

Men’s 100m Back

DR – I want to make a point about Lochte's potential 200 free/100 back double. At a meet like Worlds, where the two events are about an hour or more apart, he could handle it. At the Olympics, the two finals are separated by just the women's 100 back final. No medal ceremony, no semis, etc. Would pretty much require him to run from the pool (200 free) back to the ready room for the 100 back. No warm-down, no media, no nothing. In this situation, he would not be able to make the U.S. team; Grevers, Plummer, and Thoman are too good to lose to someone coming straight from a 200 free final.

TW- That would be brutal, but perhaps that is going to be Lochte's super human feat in London. Not winning 8 Golds, which has been done before, but to do an insane double like this one.

Grevers is the pick of the US backstrokers, but Lochte can beat the other guys. I've been impressed with Plummer's consistency since he broke through last year but can he get down to 52 low? I've heard a lot about how great Nick Thoman is/is going to be, but he hasn't convinced me long course (in jammers) yet. Let’s see what he does in Shanghai.

Clearly right now there isn't even a debate about who the favourite is for this event. Camille Lacourt is well clear. It’s because of Lacourt that I don't see Lochte going for this race. I hope Tancock can come through in front of a home crowd, but he will face some seriously tough opposition from the likes of Ryosuke Irie and Junya Koga. Aaron Peirsol's retirement definitely helps his chances though.

Prediction - 1) Camille Lacourt 2) Matt Grevers 3) Liam Tancock. Wildcard - Helge Meeuw. This was between Meeuw and Stanislav Donets, but I'm going with the German record holder. He's been away from the international scene for a little while and became a dad. It’s never been a question of talent with Meeuw, it was always consistency. Rome 2009 showed what he can do when he's on top form.

BK - Camille Lacourt looks really good in this race. He's at the head of a very impressive French backstroking group, and I can't see who touches him.

Grevers had a temporary lapse last summer, but he'll be back. If anyone can get close to LaCourt, it's going to be Grevers, but he needs to improve that consistency. The fact that Busch is leaving the Arizona program adds a wrench into finding that consistency, so we'll have to wait and see how he gets on with the new coaching staff. The good news is that he won't be swimming in Shanghai, so he'll have that extra time to settle in to the new training routines before having to face the world.

Tancock seems to be still maturing as a "swimmer" versus just an "athlete" relying on pure talent and fast-twitch muscle. This is very encouraging for him.

I'll pick the same top 3 as Tom: 1)Lacourt 2) Grevers 3) Tancock. My upset is Jeremy Stravius. As I said, the french are deep on the backstrokes, and them earning two medals would not surprise me one bit.

DR - I've marvelled many times the last few years at France's meteoric rise in backstroke since Beijing. Their best backstroker at that point was 55-low, and only that kept them out of the medley relay final.

Grevers trains mostly with Rick DeMont (same as Magnuson and for the most part Alexandrov), so he shouldn't be too much affected by the change. I think DeMont will stay at Arizona through 2012 or else Grevers will follow him. Agree with Braden's points on Tancock, though he is still looking for more consistency.

Tom mentioned Koga and Irie as possibilities, and the Russians Vyatchanin and Donets could be in the mix. Australia has Delaney and Stoeckel or possibly some young gun who can break into the mix, as well as Meeuw of Germany. Here's my wildcard: Aschwin Wildeboer. Former WR-holder, but he was fairly mediocre on the long course scene last year before he turned up with a real nice showing in Dubai. Not sure where he'll be in London, but he could be in the mix.

I'll be real original and pick the same top three: 1) Lacourt 2) Grevers 3) Tancock.

Men's 4 x 100m Relay

Does France's victory in Dubai prove that they are finally done with underperforming in the 4 x 100m Free relay? What impact will Ian Thorpe have on the Australian team?

TW - Winning a world title should help the confidence of the French team, but make no mistake, they were a fortunate to win in Dubai. The Russian's should have won the race, and had Danila Izotov got anywhere close to what he is capable of, they would have. The US team was missing Phelps and had an underperforming Nathan Adrian leading off. That won't happen in London.

For France or Russia to win the following needs to happen:

France - Alain Bernard to swim at full potential (probably leading off), continued improvement from Yannick Agnel as well as Fred Bousquet/William Meynard/Amaury Leveaux to make a step forward.

Russia - Their hopes could rest on an 18-year-old Siberian/Californian, Vlad Morozov. The Russian's have excellent depth in the 100m Free but by 2012, Morozov could be the star of the team. If he is in the Top 3 in the world when London rolls around they could go in as favourites.

As hard as I try to make a case for Russia and France to win this race, I just can't see them beating the US in London. Nathan Adrian is emerging as one of the best sprinters in the world, Phelps is getting faster and Jason Lezak isn't getting slower. It's not a bad position to be in when Ryan Lochte is your weakest link. The supporting cast of Garrett Weber-Gale, Josh Schneider, David Walters, Matt Grevers, Jimmy Feigen etc. doesn't hurt.

Prediction. 1) USA 2) Russia 3) France.

Wildcard - Australia. Ian Thorpe will strengthen the Australian team. I think he can get down to 48-low and his return should spur the other guys on. Sullivan has the talent to be the best in the world but if he continues to be injury plagued, their chances will be slim. James Magnussen and Kyle Richardson are both improving nicely.

BK - That's the beauty of the American relay. While Russia and France have to depend on this teenager and that teenager to continue development at a meteoric pace, the US is stacked. The Americans' big question mark is how long Lezak can hang on to this level, but the beauty there is that if he doesn't, they still have any number of guys to back him up that can be strong parts of a Championship relay.

Prediction  1) USA 2) Russia 3) France

Wildcard: Brazil. We all know about Cielo. If they keep sending their young sprinters to work with Brett Hawke at Auburn, good things will happen for this relay. That is, if their national federation will pull their you-know-whats out of their you-know-wheres.

DR - same prediction 1) USA, 2) Russia, 3) France

Brazil and Australia seem like the fourth and fifth best teams going in, so I'll have to go with real darkhorses - South Africa - 3/4 guys from the 2004 gold medal team coming back (Schoeman, Ferns, Townsend), and Graeme Moore and Gideon Louw are both on the rise. Don't think they'll medal but they aren't nobodies. Germany - Paul Biedermann and Steffen and Markus Deibler is a good place to start. Benjamin Starke will be a factor again this year. Also might have some young talent who can really make a mark on relays.

Big-time Darkhorse:  Belgium! I did a virtual top-three for the 400 free relay back in January, and the Belgians (Timmers, Aerents, Surgeloose, deKoninck) were second to the French (ahead of the USA). Definite potential to see some 48s this year, and from there, anything's possible. By "anything," I mean they could make the final with a great swim.

USA will definitely have Phelps, Lochte, and Adrian in London, and we'll see if Lezak can hold onto that last spot. Matt Grevers should be back on the team for London, and he could drop a nasty split. Garrett Weber-Gale has a chance to get on that team, as does American record-holder Dave Walters. Outside chances include: Berens, Robison, Jones, Schneider, McGill, Feigen, Hill, Brunelli, Savulich (probably someone else big I'm leaving off!)

For France, Bernard, Gilot, and Agnel seem like probabilities, and Bousquet or Meynard could get the last spot. Leveaux you never know. For Russia, Morozov will be the star. (I'd put them third without him.) Grechin, Lagunov, Izotov, Lobintsev, Sukhorukov, Fesikov all with chances.

2012 British Championships to be held in the Olympic Aquatic Centre

Swimming fans will get their first chance to see a competition in the new Olympic Aquatics Centre with the 2012 British Championships scheduled to take place there.

This will also mark the first time London has been used for a national championship in over a decade. The last national competition I can remember being held in 'The Big Smoke' was the ASA National Championships at Crystal Palace in 2001.

Definitely one to get a ticket for.

Olympic Medalist Project: Part II

Hopefully you've seen the previous post showing the medalists from the previous three Olympic Games and their ranking in the year preceding the Olympics.

Just from looking at the medalists and ranking you should be able to see that Gillingham's statement doesn't hold up, but how close was he to the truth?

. MEN . World Ranks/Olympics Men - Top 3 to Gold Men - Top 10 Rank to Medalist . 2007/2008 14/16 - 87.5% 43/50 - 86% . 2003/2004 14/16 - 87.5% 40/48 - 83.33% . 1999/2000 13/17 - 76.47% 36/48 - 75% . AVERAGE 41/49 - 83.67% 119/146 - 81.51% . . WOMEN . World Ranks/Olympics Women - Top 3 to Gold Women - Top 10 Rank to Medalist . 2007/2008 9/16 - 56.25% 38/48 - 79.17% . 2003/2004 11/16 - 68.75% 36/49 - 73.47% . 1999/2000 12/16 - 75% 38/49 - 77.55% . AVERAGE 32/48 - 66.67% 112/146 - 76.71%

The answer, where the men are concerned, is, well... pretty close. In both Beijing and Athens just two gold medalists were ranked outside of the Top 3 in the year before (Beijing - Cesar Cielo - 4th, Ous Mellouli - Not Ranked (serving an 18 month competition ban), Athens - Gary Hall Jr - 14th and the South African 4 x 100m Free team - 9th), whilst in Sydney that number was four. Overall, in the last three Olympics, male gold medalists have come from the Top 3 in the previous year's rankings 83.67% of the time. A similar pattern emerged for the swimmers ranked in the Top 10 in the world who went on to get a medal, a larger percentage in the two previous games than in Sydney and an overall rate for the three Olympics of 81.51%. That's a high percentage, but it by no means supports Gillingham's claim that 'statistically medals always come from those within the Top 10 and gold within the Top 3.'

On the women's side the difference is even starker. Over the last three Olympic Games the average of gold medal winners who ranked in the Top 3 in the year before was just 66.67%. In Beijing alone just 9 of the 16 gold medalists were ranked in the Top 3 the previous year. When it comes to medalists who ranked in the Top 10 the year before, the three Olympics average is 76.71%. Certainly a high proportion, but its worth bearing in mind that nearly a quarter of all medalists ranked outside of the Worlds Top 10 a year before the games. Food for thought for any swimmers on the verge of breaking through internationally.

The great thing about doing a study like this is that for every answer you find, several new directions open up. Tomorrow, I'll look further into what the history books tell us about those who have won Olympic medals in the last 11 years.