Sunday 4 March 2012

Taking A Closer Look at Hannah Miley's 4:32.67 400m IM



Day One of the British Olympic trials saw Hannah Miley set a new textile lifetime best in the 400m IM and moved herself to the top of this year's world rankings.

Her time of 4:32.67 was 1.55 seconds faster than her silver medal winning performance at the World Championships and brings her to within a second of Elizabeth Beisel's textile best time from Shanghai.

As one of the comments on this site pointed out, Miley's 300m split was actually faster than Beisel's. So where has Miley made improvements since Shanghai?

Miley Shanghai - Fly - 30.3/1:03.97 - Back - 35.6/1:10.64 - Breast - 38.3/1:16.98 - Free - 32.2/1:02.63
Miley London - Fly - 29.8/1:03.10 - Back - 34.7/1:09.36 - Breast - 37.9/1:16.77 - Free - 32.2/1:03.44

Miley's improved her splits on every stroke up until 300m with the biggest improvements on her Backstroke and Butterfly. A notoriously slow starter, being closer to the field over the first 200m should serve Miley well.

Elizabeth Beisel established herself as the clear world number one in this event, here is how her Shanghai splits match up to those of the Scot (with overall lead in brackets). In a virtual head-to-head the lead changes with every stroke:

Beisel Shanghai - Fly - 29.6/1:03.32 (+0.22 behind Miley) - Back - 34.7/1:08.64 (-0.50 in front) - Breast - 38.5/1:17.84 (+0.57) - Free - 31.2/1:01.98 (-0.89)

Miley's greatest weapon in the Medley continues to be her Breaststroke. Among the world's top IMers only Caitlin Leverenz has a better Breaststroke leg and until now the American hasn't been able to match Miley's Backstroke or Freestyle. The biggest step forward that Miley made yesterday was on her Backstroke, getting within 0.7 seconds of Beisel's world class Backstroke.

The challenge now for Miley (and her coach who happens to be her father) is to make sure that she can drop even more time at the Olympics. It was something she had failed to do in 2008 and 2009, but has dropped time in both of the last two major championships, boding well for London.

The only negative from yesterday's swim was the freestyle leg. It was a full 0.8 seconds slower than Miley's closing 100 at Worlds and nearly 1.5 seconds slower than Beisel's Shanghai closing speed. Given that Miley is a more than competent freestyler, this comes as a slight surprise. Both women's freestyle times are similar, in 2011 Beisel swam 1:59.17 and 4:08.57 in the 200m and 400m Free, compared to Miley's 1:59.34 and 4:09.59.

At the Olympics with the home crowd cheering on Miley and potentially being at the head of the field, it may be enough to get Great Britain off to a golden start.

14 comments:

  1. Your analysis is spot on. Cant wait to see Stephanie Rice's response to Miley's 4.32 in the coming days...

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    Replies
    1. Don't forget also Blair Evans. I think she can still drop more times.

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    2. Yes Blair was impressive -30.8 finish. Depends on what the new suits are actually worth. 4.34.4 with no benefits (a) /4.32.9 with (B)..

      Hamill is steady in heavy training on 4.40 Dec/Feb . Would think on that distance program she could drop 3-4 secs also. Fullerton like the rest of that squad is an unknown. Ellen Jess & Kylie have been invisible since early Nov.

      Steph does have a battle this year.

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  2. This is what Michael Bohl, Rice's coach stated today:

    "I think a 4:29 will be good enough to medal but you've got to be aiming at better than that to win gold."


    WOW.

    Had Rice's shoulder been healthy, I would have had no doubt she can do a 4:29, but now..?

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  3. Bad Anon here. I think Bohl is probably right. Beisel can definitely do a 4.29. However she needs to split a 2.09 or so at 200m (Rice WR split is a 2:09.83 and Coventry was also on 2.09..lol!). Beisel was 2:11.9in shanghai. That would take her 4.31 to a 4.29. Ye Shiwen is also capable of a 4:29. I'm sure Rice will be swimming fast at trials.. We'l first have to see how fast Rice wil be. Perhaps coach Bohl was rattled by Miley's 4.32 and he could be merely posturing? We dont know..

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    1. I don't think Bohl is rattled by a 4:32

      If he were, then well, Rice does not deserve to even hope for a medal

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  4. Rice's best in a textile suit is a 4.34.2. In the polysuit era, thats a time she could get in the heats with great ease... If Rice is 4.33 or better at Aussie trials, coach Bohl is to be taken seriously! Her best this year is a 4.42 from NSW champs i think. A drop of 10seconds in 6weeks(with no boost from the polysuits now)? Lets wait and see...

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  5. I would be absolutely shocked if someone goes under 430 this summer. This event wasn't particularly fast last summer (434 to medal? There were probably 6 swimmers capable of swimming 433 or faster). It may have been because it was at the end of the schedule, but 429 to medal is absurd.

    Heading into Shanghai, Rice's coach claimed she was "almost" Beijing shape. Which, I took to understand that she was probably on form to swim 209flat and sub432. From what I've seen its almost impossible to expect any faster than these times as physical limits for Rice coming off of surgery. My gut feeling is that she's not going to be able to qualify for the 200IM (losing to Seebohm and coutts) and she'll have a battle to make the 400IM. The 200fly seems like the most assured avenue on the team for her.

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  6. I would be absolutely shocked if someone goes under 430 this summer. This event wasn't particularly fast last summer (434 to medal? There were probably 6 swimmers capable of swimming 433 or faster). It may have been because it was at the end of the schedule, but 429 to medal is absurd.

    Heading into Shanghai, Rice's coach claimed she was "almost" Beijing shape. Which, I took to understand that she was probably on form to swim 209flat and sub432. From what I've seen its almost impossible to expect any faster than these times as physical limits for Rice coming off of surgery. My gut feeling is that she's not going to be able to qualify for the 200IM (losing to Seebohm and coutts) and she'll have a battle to make the 400IM. The 200fly seems like the most assured avenue on the team for her.

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    1. Judging by the very poor efforts of the rest of her squad -I think they had a messed up taper. Remember even Park barely made the finals & it was not a plan.

      Ditto Stephanie. . I think she was capable of much more .I don't know about this season for the squad has been in seemingly very heavy workload . Her NSW times are about the usual times she goes in mid season.

      For the first time since 06 she will have a race on her hands. Blair's 4.36 was a model of pacing done all by herself. A bit faster in fly & she has Steph cornered. But Steph might stage a breakout. Bohl always said her turns could improve considerably as she tends to be quite loose.

      Cheers.

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    2. I definitely think Rice has a sub 4:30 in her if she was healthy and had perfect preparation not bugged with shoulder injuries.

      She will have very difficult schedule with both 200 IM and fly on the same night seperated by less than one hour(seriously FINA!)

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  7. Coach Bohl knows something we dont. Can see a 4.33high and a 2.09low for Rice in the IMs at trials. That will cut it. I reckon she'l drop the 200fly even if she qualifies.. I'm confident Rice will make the 800free relay as well!

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  8. If Rice qualifies for 200 IM, for sure she'll drop 200 fly.
    But if she didn't qualify for 200 IM, she'll keep the 200 fly

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  9. Swimming both 200IM and 200fly will greatly diminish chances of medalling in both events. The IM would be a priority 4 her though as defending champion.. If she makes the team, she'l at least medal in both IM's dare i say repeat her beijing double...

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