Friday, 27 July 2012

Speed Endurance Olympic Swimming Predictions - Freestyle

The time has finally arrived, it is Olympic prediction time! Odds to win also included. It is well worth checking out the odds to finish in the top 3 too, some good value there (eg. Fran Halsall 9/5 to finish top 3 in the 100 Free). Make it rain!


50 free
1. Cesar Cielo (8/13)
2. James Magnussen (17/2)
3. Bruno Fratus (14/1)

After Cielo the 50 free becomes a lottery. Anthony Ervin and Cullen Jones posted great times in Omaha, but I'm basing this on a red hot Magnussen and an improving Fratus.

100 free
1. James Magnussen (4/9)
2. James Roberts (15/2)
3. Cesar Cielo (8/1)

Tough to overlook the consistency of Brent Hayden and the talent of Fabien Gilot or Yannick Agnel. For anyone doubting James Roberts' chances, if Magnussen wasn't around I would suggest he'd be seen as the red hot favourite.

200 free
1. Ryan Lochte (13/10)
2. Yannick Agnel (5/2)
3. Sun Yang (10/1)

I was briefly tempted to pick Agnel in this one, and I could definitely see him upsetting Lochte, however, Lochte's track record over the last few years just gives him the edge. Sun Yang, Park Tae Hwan and Paul Biedermann should all be tightly bunched for the bronze. 

400 free
1. Sun Yang (evens)
2. Park Tae Hwan (13/8)
3. Paul Biedermann (16/1)

This prediction assumes Sun Yang has learnt from Shanghai where he got his race plan all kinds of wrong. If it is a straight shoot-out then Sun Yang and Park Tae Hwan should be well clear, however if it is a cagey affair watch out for a fast finishing Biedermann.

1500 free
1. Sun Yang (1/4)
2. Park Tae Hwan (12/1)
3. Gregorio Paltrinieri (33/1)

Park is down to swim so I assume he will race this, and if he has trained for it I think he has too much talent for the rest of the field. I've taken a flier on Paltrinieri for bronze who has youth on his side over the more proven commodities of Ryan Cochrane and Ous Mellouli.


50 free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo (11/5)
2. Fran Halsall (7/2)
3. Britta Steffen (10/1)

Had Therese Alshammar been at 100% going into London she would have been in the top 3, but her pinched nerve plays against her. This will likely be Halsall's best chance for gold, but I'll go with the consistency of Kromowidjojo. Marleen Veldhuis should be close and for a major outsider take a look at Arianna Vanderpool Wallace.

100 free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo (7/5)
2. Sarah Sjoestroem (11/2)
3. Fran Halsall (12/1)

Britta Steffen could certainly challenge for a medal here, but I see Kromowidjojo and Sjoestroem as Tier 1 and Halsall as Tier 1a. As Shanghai proved, this event has the potential to throw up some big shocks. I wonder how Alicia Coutts will be received in the call room after her allegations of foul play. A great bet would be Femke Heemskerk to medal at 16/1, don't sleep on the fact that she had the fastest split of anyone in the 4x100 free relay in Shanghai.

200 free
1. Camille Muffat (4/1)
2. Allison Schmitt (9/2)
3. Sarah Sjoestroem (12/1)

This has the potential to be the race of the games. Allison Schmitt's textile best time was an eye opener, but Muffat has been ultra consistent this year and has posted stunning times without being fully tapered. I give Muffat the slight edge. Sjoestroem for bronze will come as a surprise, and it feels wrong to bet against Federica Pellegrini, but I have a sneaky feeling Sjoestroem will have some special swims in London. Missy Franklin shouldn't be overlooked either despite being a long way back at US Trials.

400 free
1. Camille Muffat (8/11)
2. Federica Pellegrini (9/2)
3. Rebecca Adlington (4/1)

Muffat this year has shown that she has several race plans up her sleeve. If the first 200m is slow, she came back in 1:58.5 at the Canet leg of the Mare Nostrum and she has the speed in the 100m/200m free to go with early speed. Pellegrini, Adlington, Schmitt and Kylie Palmer are all in contention for silver and bronze but I will go with the reigning World and Olympic champions.

800 free
1. Rebecca Adlington (8/15)
2. Lotte Friis (10/3)
3. Katie Ledecky (10/1)

Friis has had a quiet year so far and sits 3.5 seconds back of Adlington in the world rankings, but she should be much closer when the final gets here. Ledecky is the ultimate wild card, at her age she could drop another chunk of time from her 8:19 at US Trials. Despite a couple of stern challengers, I still believe Rebecca Adlington has enough quality to take this.


  1. Blimey I'd completely forgotten about elbow-gate! I've got Coutts down to win the 200IM...

    1. My predictions

      50 - (no Alshammar, dammit) Kromowidjojo, Halsall, Hardy
      100 - Kromowidjojo, Halsall, Steffen
      200 - Muffat, Pellegrini, Schmitt
      400 - Pellegrini, Muffat, Schmitt (who knows really, you could swap the 200/400 orders!)
      800 - Adlington, Friis, Belmonte (think Maria has a much better shot here than in the tough 200/400 medley fields)

      50 - Manaudou (just bcs this would be hilarious), Cielo, Ervin
      100 - Magnussen, Roberts, Adrian
      200 - Lochte, Agnel, Biedermann
      400 - Sun, Park, Biedermann
      1500 - Sun, Joensen, Paltrinieri

  2. I have to put Camille Muffat winning both the 400 and 800 free. She is just looking way too good in the water right now. With her recent 4:18-4:04 split at a race in France, I really think she will be unstoppable.

  3. Sorry Jonas, Muffat's not entered the 800 free (thankfully from a British perspective). Start list is here -

    1. Thank you Tom, I take everything back :) Such a shame she won't be swimming in it. Would have been one amazing race, that's for sure! Then I think it will either be Ledecky or your own Adlington.