This year's Paris Open has turned into one of the most anticipated meets of 2010. The lack of a major global competition this year means that this meet represents one of the few chances to see some of the world's best compete head-to-head in LC metres. This is no more apparent than in the men's sprint events.
The event organisers deserve a Toulouse-Lautrec sized 'chapeau' for their ability to draw the world's top male sprinters. Competing this weekend are the French contingent of Fred Bousquet, Alain Bernard, Yannick Agnel and Fabien Gilot, Brazil's sprint sensation Cesar Cielo, South Africa's Roland Schoeman, Trinidad's George Bovell, Italy's Filippo Magnini, Poland's up and coming sprinter Konrad Czerniak and most impressively the American duo of Nathan Adrian and.... wait for it..... Michael Phelps.
Phelps is set to compete in the 100m Free, 200m Free, 200m Butterfly and 200m IM. Whilst it is exciting to see swimming's biggest star race each and every time, especially on foreign soil, it's his decision to go up against the world's best in the 100m Freestyle that is perhaps the biggest talking point. Phelps will have to produce something very special to get the better of the swimmers listed above, especially given his relatively (by Phelps' high standards) slow start to 2010.
The women's events see the French going up a small but strong Dutch, British and American contingent. Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Femke Heemskerk and Hinkelien Schreuder head up Holland's challenge with Elizabeth Simmonds and Francesca Halsall representing Britain's interest. The US women include Allison Schmitt, Felicia Lee and Elizabeth Pelton with more international star power being added by Sweden's Therese Alshammar, Romania's Camelia Potec and Serbia's Nadia Higl.
The French will be looking to Camille Muffat, Coralie Balmy, Alexianne Castel and Aurore Mongel to fend off their international challengers.
Start List here (speed_endurance exclusive)
Results will appear here
Predictions
Women
Women
50m Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo
2. Hinkelien Schreuder
3. Femke Heemskerk
100m Free
1. Ranomi Kromowidjojo
2. Francesca Hansall
3. Femke Heemskerk
200m Free
1. Camille Muffat
2. Femke Heemskerk
3. Allison Schmitt
400m Free
1. Camille Muffat
2. Coralie Balmy
3. Allison Schmitt
800m Free
1. Camelia Potec
2. Grainne Murphy
3. Nuala Murphy
50m Back
1. Elizabeth Simmonds
2. Theodora Drakou
3. Alexianne Castel
100m Back
1. Elizabeth Simmonds
2. Alexianne Castel
3. Elizabeth Pelton
200m Back
1. Elizabeth Simmonds
2. Elizabeth Pelton
3. Alexianne Castel
50m Breast
1. Moniek Nijhuis
2. Maria Michalaka
3. Kate Haywood
100m Breast
1. Nadja Higl
2. Moniek Nijhuis
3. Maria Michalaka
200m Breast
1. Nadja Higl
2. Alena Alexeeva
3. Fanny Babou
50m Fly
1. Therese Alshammar
2. Francesca Halsall
3. Melanie Henique
100m Fly
1. Francesca Halsall
2. Aurore Mongel
3. Kim Vanderberg
200m Fly
1. Aurore Mongel
2. Lara Grangeon
3. Francesca Segat
200m IM
1. Camille Muffat
2. Lara Grangeon
3. Francesca Segat
400m IM
1. Grainne Murphy
2. Lara Grangeon
3. Francesca Segat
Predictions
Men
50m Free
1. Fred Bousquet
2. Cesar Cielo
3. Alain Bernard
100m Free
1. Alain Bernard
2. Cesar Cielo
3. Michael Phelps
200m Free
1. Michael Phelps
2. Yannick Agnel (Phelps v Agnel is the race I want to see above all others)
3. Sebastaian Verschuren
400m Free
1. Sebastien Rouault
2. Federico Colbertaldo
3. Massimiliano Rosolino
1500m Free
1. Sebastien Rouault
2. Federico Colbertaldo
3. Anthony Pannier
50m Back
1. Liam Tancock
2. Camille Lacourt
3. Randall Bal
100m Back
1. Liam Tancock
2. Camille Lacourt
3. Jeremy Stravius
200m Back
1. Eric Ress
2. Nick Driebergen
3. Aristeidis Grigoriadis
50m Breast
1. Lennart Stekelenburg
2. Fabio Scozzoli
3. Alessandro Terrin
100m Breast
1. Hugues Duboscq
2. Alexander Dale Oen
3. Fabio Scozzoli
200m Breast
1. Hugues Duboscq
2. Scott Spann
3. Alexander Dale Oen
50m Fly
1. Fred Bousquet
2. Roland Schoeman
3. Konrad Czerniak
100m Fly
1. Konrad Czerniak
2. Joeri Verlinden
3. Albert Subirats
200m Fly
1. Michael Phelps
2. Dinko Jukic
3. Stefanos Dimitriadis
200m IM
1. Michael Phelps
2. Dinko Jukic
3. Todd Patrick
400m IM
1. Dinko Jukic
2. Sebastien Rouault
3. Anthony Pannier
Predictions look good, but I see the 100 free going a different way. My picks are 1. Adrian, 2. Cielo, 3. Bernard. Adrian had a blazing 48.83 last weekend, and it was at a cold, outdoor pool, with almost no competition. I could also see him slipping into third in the 50 behind Bousquet and Cielo. Phelps will be very tough to beat in the 200s, but the 100 free, as always, will be tough for him, especially a short time after the 200 fly.
ReplyDeleteThe men's breaststroke events could be very interesting. Scott Spann (similar to Allison Schmitt) is a big taper guy. He's not the best in-season - he was ranked 38th going into NCAA's in the 200 breast and ended up second (prelims time would have won). Will be interesting to see how he swims against guys like Duboscq and Dale Oen, who is a big wildcard right now. Also, Mark Gangloff will be in Paris as well.
Todd Patrick of the U.S. has been looking good, and I think he is developing into a major National contender in both IMs and maybe the 200 fly/200 free. Similarly, Felicia Lee has had an awesome season on the domestic level, so maybe she can translate that into international success. 100/200 fly and 200 IM are her best chances.
Very interested to see how Liz Pelton matches up to Lizzie Simmonds in the 200 back. I could definitely see these two ending up with the top two times in the world this year, but this will be their only head-to-head race.
Pleasant surprise to see Massi Rosolino still swimming; I haven't heard from him since Rome.
Adrian will definitely be in contention and you're right about the 200m Fly effect for Phelps, perhaps I should have chosen Adrian for the top 3. I still think that Bernard and Cielo are better 100m Freestylers and that the head-to-head between the two will bring something special out of both of them. Bernard is the face of this meet, he's on the official poster and crucially he's swimming on home soil. This is why I still pick him to win. Tough to not pick Cielo as I think mentally he is stronger than all of his competitors. Worth looking out for Gilot too, he often is the most consistent of the French sprinters.
ReplyDeleteI've been impressed with Patrick in the Grand Prix series and it will be good to see him up against strong international competition.
Pelton/Simmonds should be great to watch. I think Simmonds will win as right now she is the No.1 200m Backstroker in the world by some distance. Definitely a swimmer that the new suit laws have helped.
This is a quote about Bernard from SwimNews.com: "don't get your hopes up - it's a training race and the Olympic champ will not be resting." Adrian was 48.83 in Santa Clara, compared to 49.01 in Canet. Cielo is kinda a wildcard since I don't think he's raced since Brazilian Nationals in May. I agree about Gilot, he could certainly slip into the top three.
ReplyDeleteI could see both Pelton and Simmonds being 2:08-low or better in Paris. Both have had some nasty in-season times so far this year, but only Simmonds has already shown some of her cards in a rested-meet. I have a hunch Pelton will be at least 2:06-mid this summer. (She was 2:08.6 in April at a Grand Prix, and she hasn't swam it since).
Pelton and Simmonds both have the potential for 2:06's but I think it'll be very much taper-dependent. The brits seem to be making a point of talking down the taper and the prospects for Budapest - some have been competing for 2 or 3 weeks already which looks a bit dodgy for any sort of quality training or tapering.
ReplyDelete2:06.62 is Kristina Egerszegi's textile best time and that is ready to go, maybe not in Paris but certainly over the next few months. Simmonds has been 2:06.79 tapered in March and also 2:06.90 in early February.
ReplyDeleteSwimNews has been reporting what poor shape Bernard has been in all year. It didn't stop him going 48.3 at French Nationals. I think its a message he and his coach have been trying to get across to the media.
Apparently Bernard didn't train much from Rome until January. It showed in the finals at French nationals, when he couldn't even break 48 (I think). He's got a bit to go to get back to his textile best times from 2007 (21.76/48.12) or under 48 (which he certainly would have done in Beijing, but maybe not Rome, in any suit).
ReplyDeleteSimmonds will probably have her best chance this year at Commonwealth Games. I would expect another 2:06-high in Budapest and then maybe 2:06-low in Delhi. Pelton will taper very well for Nationals and Pan Pacs (she's been going at it since Rome with not much rest), and I think an American record (Hoelzer, 2:06.09) is well within the realm of possibility. In Paris, I think both should be 2:08-mid, with the slight chance of a 2:07-high (which would be awesome!).
My French is rather dodgy, but looks like the following qualified for the 100m Free finals set for 7:30 tonight:
ReplyDelete1 Fabien Gilot - 48.59
2 Yannick Agnel - 49.02
3 Nathan Adrian - 49.17
3 Grégory Mallet - 49.17
5 Cesar Cielo - 49.31
6 Sebastiaan Verschuren - 49.36
7 Michael Phelps - 49.44
8 William Meynard - 49.73
9 Luca Dotto - 49.80
10 Jérémy Stravius - 49.91
Notably, the following didn't make it out of Prelims:
Alain Bernard - 50.44
Frédérick Bousquet - 50.53
And in the 200m Fly, not too surprising that Phelps had the fastest prelims time of 1:57.88