Thursday, 7 July 2011

World Swimming Championships Predictions - Women

Women's World Championships Predictions - Version 1.1

    50 Free
1    Kromowidjojo
2    Alshammar
3    Hardy

I'm banking on a return to form for the world's best sprinter last year, Kromowidjojo. Her performances in Dubai last year was so head and shoulders ahead of the world, I'm looking at a repeat in the long pool. Hardy has a scheduling conflict with the 50 Breast, but I think she can step up twice in the same session.  
   
    100 Free
1    Kromowidjojo
2    Halsall
3    Heemskerk

This was a real head over heart decision. For Worlds, I've gone for Kromowidjojo for the same reasons highlighted above. I believe Halsall will take silver in Shanghai before turning it into gold in London next year. Coughlin, Steffen, Coutts and Yi Tang have all entered my intrapersonal conversation for the bronze spot.   
   
    200 Free
1    Pellegrini
2    Muffat
3    Palmer

Without trying to spoil the surprise, I see a repeat of Beijing happening for Pellegrini - a disappointing 400 Free followed by a stunning 200 Free. At the Paris Open, Camille Muffat looked like she is poised for a huge breakthrough meet. Kylie Palmer seems to be more consistent than compatriot Bronte Barratt. The obvious name missing here is Allison Schmitt. She has been in my Top 3 all year, but I just couldn't find a place for her. Toughest event to predict on the schedule.  
   
    400 Free
1    Adlington
2    Muffat
3    Pellegrini

Pellegrini has been in every spot of this Top 3 in the lead up to Worlds. Adlington has been in supreme form in this event for the last two years and has had a big training cycle since her 4:02.8 in March. Muffat's 400 in Paris was spectacular and I think she can drop down to 4:02. Should Pellegrini have a poor swim in the 400 (not out of the question going by the previous few years) and drop out of the medals, my money is on Chloe Sutton for the bronze spot.   

   
    800 Free
1    Adlington
2    Friis
3    Sutton
   
In terms of rankings, this race appears to be a lock for Adlington. A few mental issues surfaced in 2009 and 2010 but they seem to have been put well and truly to rest. She currently sits a full 3 seconds ahead of the rest of the world in 2011. Sutton, Ziegler and the Chinese are my choices for bronze. I'll go with Sutton but its close.
   
    1500 Free
1    Ziegler
2    Friis
3    Sutton

Ziegler is the world record holder in the event, her 2007 effort of 15:42.54 surviving the tech suit era. I expect the field to be close with Ziegler's strong second half taking her away from the field. Friis, Sutton, Grainne Murphy, Kristel Kobrich and Melissa Gorman will have a fierce battle for the medals. This will be the most exciting non-Olympic event at Worlds.
   
    50 Back
1    Gao Chang
2    Zueva
3    Herasimenia

50's are notoriously hard to predict but at her very best Gao Chang has shown that she is a cut above the rest of the world. She did struggle in Dubai however (as did Zueva). 
   
    100 Back
1    Zhao Jing
2    Terakawa
3    Coughlin

Terakawa was my pick before the home-crowd influence swung me towards Zhao Jing. The Chinese woman is also the only woman under 59 seconds in a textile suit. Coughlin, Terakawa (and Zueva) have a great chance to win this race. After her recent poor results (by her high standards) I can't include Gemma Spofforth here, then again she is a part of the Florida training group who seem to get their tapers spot on.
   
    200 Back
1    Zhao Jing
2    Franklin
3    Hocking
   
The pick of Zhao Jing is based solely on her performance at last year's Asian Games. Missy Franklin gets her only individual swim of the meet in this race and I'm expecting fireworks. Australia's Hocking and Nay are serious contenders to take it all. Lizzie Simmonds having to taper for British Nationals in June is cause for concern. Her time will come in London next year.
   
    50 Breast
1    Hardy
2    Efimova
3    Soni

Hardy and Efimova are a cut above the rest. Leiston Pickett has a strong chance for a medal, as does Leisel Jones. I'll go with Soni, who has the chance of rewriting the history books in Shanghai.   
   
    100 Breast
1    Soni
2    Efimova
3    Jones

The Soni pick isn't surprising, but the Efimova choice might raise eyebrows, especially given Jones' strong form at the recent Aussie SC Nationals. I'm going with the Dave Salo effect here and picking Efimova who has been training with the Trojan swim team in California.  
   
    200 Breast
1    Soni
2    Pierse
3    Efimova

This looks on paper to be Soni vs. the clock. The world record is certainly under threat. WR-holder Annamay Pierse is over her injury/illness-ridden 2010. Efimova posted an incredible 2:23.66 at the recent Meet of Champions in America.
   
    50 Fly
1    Alshammar
2    Guehrer
3    Dekker

This is Alshammar's pet event, I can't see her being beaten. (Assuming they both swim) Marieke Guehrer and Inge Dekker are elite in this event.
   
    100 Fly
1    Sjostrom
2    Liu Zige
3    Vollmer

Sjostrom's talent level is off the charts. A sub-57 swim is highly likely. Liu Zige is one of world swimming's more inconsistent swimmers, but swimming in-front of an expectant home crowd worked well for her in Beijing. My original pick for bronze, Alicia Coutts, has changed to Dana Vollmer. A certian Mr. Rieder helpfully pointed out that her 57.5 untapered this year is out of this world. Point taken.
   
    200 Fly
1    Liu Zige
2    Jiao Liuyang
3    Lowe

Before Kathleen Hersey's 2:06 at Santa Clara, it looked like the US might not have a representative in the final for this race. The Chinese pair are in a different class right now. Britain could well end up 3rd and 4th, my pick for bronze is Jemma Lowe who has dealt better with competing on the major stage in the past than Ellen Gandy. Hersey, Jessicah Schipper, Katinka Hosszu, Mireia Belmonte, Natsumi Hoshi and Zsuzsanna Jakabos will be fighting it out for a hotly contested final spot.
   
    200 IM
1    Kukors
2    Ye Shiwen
3    Coutts

Officially the most anticipated women's event of the World Championship (actually, tied with the 100 Free). This one is absolutely stacked. Ye Shiwen could blow the entire field apart on home soil, however my money is on Ariana Kukors. Of all the suited world records broken in Rome, her 2:06.15 seems to have come under the most scrutiny. If her 2:09.53 from Santa Clara was untapered, we could be in store for a stunner in Shanghai. I feel bad for not picking Coutts to win any events, but she does seem to have a knack of racing in the most competitive events going. Incredible to think that the likes of Steph Rice, Katinka Hosszu, Kirsty Coventry and Mireia Belmonte have been left out of the medals. Just tells you how deep this one is.
   
    400 IM
1    Ye Shiwen
2    Miley
3    Rice

As I've discussed in the comments section, the pick of Ye Shiwen in the 400 IM, arguably a weaker event for her than the 200 IM, is down more to Kukors' strength. Hannah Miley was spectacular at Europeans last year and will look to use her Breaststroke leg to win this for her, however, I do worry about her having to go up against the fast starting Steph Rice. Elizabeth Beisel is a wildcard here, how will she respond to the Florida programme? Somebody that's under the radar that could have a breakthrough meet... Japan's 17-year-old Miyu Otsuka.
   
    4 x 100 Free
1    Netherlands
2    USA
3    Australia

Barring any sub-par performances, this should be a win for the Dutch. The emergence of Missy Franklin should make the US the closest challengers with Australia, China and Germany battling it out for Bronze. Darkhorses for an upset... Sweden.
   
    4 x 200 Free
1    Australia
2    China
3    USA

Fascinating relay. Australia have shown an incredible depth in 2011 (4 swimmers ranked in the Top 13!).  China broke the short course world record in Dubai, while USA can call upon a team full of talent. Relatively easy top 3 to pick.
   
    4 x 100 Medley
1    USA
2    Australia
3    China

As is often the case, this could come down to a battle of the breaststrokers. On every other leg there isn't much to choose between the US and Australia, but if Rebecca Soni can taken 0.5 seconds from Leisel Jones on the breaststroke, this race is over. If Ji Liping or Sun Ye step up to a new level on the Chinese breaststroke leg, this relay suddenly becomes very interesting.

41 comments:

  1. Can't wait to watch it.. I should do one of those as well and see how I did :)

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  2. Go for it. I'd encourage everyone to have a go and post your picks in the comments section. Good luck picking the men's 200 Free!

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  3. Chinese swimming fan7 July 2011 19:04

    I am curious to know why you put Ye Shiwen on top in 400 IM but not in 200 IM. I would assume the opposite be true since she is stronger in the shorter distance. If she wins 400 IM, she would sure win 200 IM. No?

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  4. Great question. The answer is less to do with which is Ye Shiwen's stronger event, as it is to do with Kukors. I've convinced myself that she will do something special in the 200 IM to keep out the young Chinese girl.

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  5. Normally i would agree with Chinese swimming fan but you need to take into account that it is not a one horse race and the likes of Kukors and i think Coutts have superior sprint medley ability than Ye, on the 400IM she will need to swim well to beat Miley,Rice & Beisel.

    I will have a go myself..

    50Free
    1.Kromowidjojo
    2.Alshammar
    3.Herasimenia (Or Veldhuis, soo split)

    100Free
    1.Halsall
    2.Kromowidjojo
    3.Heemskerk

    200Free
    1.Muffat
    2.Pelegrini
    3.Schmitt

    400Free
    1.Adlington
    2.Pellegrini
    3.Muffat

    800Free
    1.Adlington
    2.Ziegler
    3.Sutton

    1500Free
    1.Friise
    2.Ziegler
    3.Kobrich

    50Back
    1.Herasimenia
    2.Terakawa
    3.Gao

    100Back
    1.Zhao
    2.Spofforth
    3.Terakawa

    200Back
    1.Zhao
    2.Simmonds
    3.Franklin

    50Breast
    1.Hardy
    2.Efimova
    3.Pickett

    100Breast
    1.Soni
    2.Efimova
    3.Jones

    200Breast
    1.Soni
    2.Efimova
    3.Pierse

    50Fly
    1.Alshammar
    2.Dekker
    3.Ottensen (If Halsall swims she could challenge)

    100Fly
    1.Sjostrom
    2.Zige
    3.Coutts

    200Fly
    1.Liuyang
    2.Zige
    3.Gandy

    200IM
    1.Kukors
    2.Ye
    3.Coutts

    400IM
    1.Rice
    2.Miley
    3.Ye

    400Free Relay
    1.Netherlands
    2.United States
    3.Australia
    *USA could win if Dekker & Veldhuis dont step up by quite a chunk on current time.

    800Free Relay
    1.Australia
    2.United States
    3.China
    *France & Hungary will be close, as will GB if Jackson & McClatchey are back to best.

    400Medley Relay
    1.United States
    2.Australia
    3.China

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  6. Chinese swimming fan7 July 2011 21:16

    The Chinese media has reported that Tang Yi and Zhu Qianwei will swim individual 200 free. Given that their times are not that great early in the year (placing 4th and 6th in the spring championship), I assume that they are now in form. I am therefore guarded optimistic about China's prospect in 4x200 since Pang Jiaying, Liu Jing and Chen Qian are all included on the team.

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  7. Interesting, although were they not the Chinese representatives in the Asian games last year? Whatever form they were in the selection is not at all strange.

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  8. From s/c hitout last week Liesel Jones is looking leaner & keener , Kylie has done the distance work & Kukla has added racing skills to her formidable power..

    My prediction is that a few big names will be unprepared for the much improved standards forcing 2008 LZR standard heat /semi speed & more back up powers in the final unaided by the suits.

    I don't know if this will benefit the older wiser swimmers who can judge speed or those whohave less pain memories & just o for it.

    A bit of his & a bit of that = some surprises.

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  9. For me the hardest to pick is the IM events, there are just so many great swimmers having swum similar times. Making predictions will only be getting a lot harder because of the parity in swimming among so many countries these days, but since it is so much fun,here's my predictions for Shangha:

    50 Freestyle
    Gold: Ranomi Kromowidjojo
    Silver: Therese Alshammar
    Bronze: Marleen Veldhuis

    100 Freestyle
    Gold: Ranomi Kromowidjojo
    Silver: Fran Halsall
    Bronze: Femke Heemskerk

    200 Freestyle
    Gold: Federica Pellegrini
    Silver: Camille Muffat
    Bronze: Kylie Palmer

    400 Freestyle
    Gold: Rebecca Adlington
    Silver: Federica Pellegrini
    Bronze: Bronte Barratt

    800 Freestyle
    Gold: Rebecca Adlington
    Silver: Li Xiuanxu
    Bronze: Chloe Sutton

    1500 Freestyle
    Gold: Li Xuanxu
    Silver: Lotte Friis
    Bronze: Chloe Sutton

    50 Backstroke
    Gold: Gao Chang
    Silver: Anastasia Zueva
    Bronze: Aya Terakawa

    100 Backstroke
    Gold: Anastasia Zueva
    Silver: Aya Terakawa
    Bronze: Emily Seebohm
    (yeah, I know Seebohm is sick and all but she's a fighter and I expect her to fight this one. She literally passed out after her only swim in the 100 in Australian trials, and she won Santa Clara in sub 1:00 from Missy Franklin even when she was already sick)

    200 Backstroke
    Gold: Megan Nay
    Silver: Elizabeth Simmonds
    Bronze: Belinda Hocking

    50 Breaststroke
    Gold: Leiston Pickett
    Silver: Yulia Efimova
    Bronze: Leisel Jones

    100 Breaststroke
    Gold: Rebecca Soni
    Silver: Leisel Jones
    Bronze: Yulia Efimova

    200 Breaststroke
    Gold: Rebecca Soni
    Silver: Yulia Efimova
    Bronze: Ji Liping

    50 Butterfly
    Gold: Therese Alshammar
    Silver: Inge Dekker
    Bronze: Yolane Kukla

    100 Butterfly
    Gold: Sarah Sjoestrom
    Silver: Alicia Coutts
    Bronze: Liu Zige

    200 Butterfly
    Gold: Liu Zige
    Silver: Jiao Liuyang
    Bronze: Jemma Lowe

    200 Individual Medley
    Gold: Alicia Coutts
    Silver: Ye Shiwen
    Bronze: Ariana Kukors

    400 Individual Medley
    Gold: Hannah Miley
    Silver: Stephanie Rice
    Bronze: Mireia Belmonte

    400 Freestyle Relay
    Gold: Netherlands
    Silver: United States
    Bronze: Australia

    800 Freestyle Relay
    Gold: Australia
    Silver: United States
    Bronze: China

    400 Medley Relay
    Gold: United States
    Silver: Australia
    Bronze: China

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  10. Gosh, so many foreign names I don't even know how to pronounce!
    Thank you all for your picks, I am learning a lot about who's who and what discipline they swim by reading these picks. :D
    (haven't kept up with the women that well since Beijing)

    So please keep them coming!

    One question I have for anyone though is this.
    What chances do you guys give Coughlin and Franklin?
    I'm a little bit surprised to see their names generally missing from these picks.
    (they certainly appear to be no one's gold medal favorites, that's for sure.)

    Much appreciation for anyone's input.
    Thank you!

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  11. I've changed a few since posting predictions on swimmingworld

    50free
    1 kromowidjojo 24.2
    2 alshammar 24.3
    3 steffen 24.4
    (This I think is the most open event on the planet. If you swim it 3 times you cold get completely different podium finishers. These are based on the last 2 seasons but the other Dutchwoman and Hardy are definitely possibilities)

    100free
    1 halsall 53.1
    2 kromowidjojo 53.2
    3 coutts 53.4
    (to tell the truth krowo is probably the safer bet to bag the win. Im going largely on gut feeling but I think this is an event where someone who no one has predicted like Coughlin or Hersemenia could take a medal rarer than Bronze.)

    200free
    1 muffat 154.8
    2pellegrini 155.1
    3 zhu (or the top chinese) 155.4
    (probably my most controversial pick because really I can see this going anywhere where schmitt heemskerk palmar barratt and the other chinese girl-- i do expect the chinese to have a monster showing on home turf though. The aussies have already posted times that'll contend for medals, but I dont expect them to drop much. The first two I think are interchangeable but I think the top 2 times might be a tad conservative now that I think about it.)

    400free
    1 adlington 401.2
    2 pellegrini 402.0
    3 Muffat 402.4
    (Probably the womans event Im most excited for… really… I think its possible to some unexpected fireworks (Hoff getting on the podium again) or surprises (Shao or whoever the other Chinese is popping a 401).)

    800free
    1 adlington 815
    2 sutton 817
    3 li 819

    1500free
    1 sutton
    2ziegler
    3 li


    50back
    1 zhao
    2 gao
    3 (take your pick between herasemenia terakawa and zueva)

    100back
    1 zhao 58.9
    2 terakawa 59.2
    3 coughlin 59.3
    (if Seebohm had been clearly w illness after aussie trials, I would've picked her for gold. 100.3 in that condition? I think this event has been underswam so far this season with many major players yet to swim their best. This is why I think Terakawa and Zueva are on everyone’s lists. Really, Simmonds, Spofforth, Zhao, Gao, Coventry have yet to swim this seriously and if they were on the burners they were on last year, and I expect them to be in the same shape by now, it would be impossible to call. Definitely one I’ll revise again and again)

    200back
    1 zhao 206.0
    2 beisel 206.6
    3 hocking 207.0
    (After seeing Franklin swim “less” rested I’m less confident about having her drop 2 seconds from her times from Indy. But I think Hocking is going to be battling that bronze with Franklin, Coventry, Nay and, a great wildcard now… , Castel too)

    50breast
    1 hardy 29.8
    2 efimova30.0
    3 soni 30.3

    100breast
    1 soni 104.5
    2 jones 104.9
    3 ji liping 105.8
    (Ji just over efimova. The Chinese’s “missing” link on the medley relay. Although they’re so strong, the American and Aussies have out of this world backstrokers (and they are the chinese’s main competition in the medley)

    200breast
    1soni 219.8
    2sun ye 221.9
    3efimova 222.6
    (Im surprisingly very confident with this prediction. I also expect Pierse, Ji Liping and Beard to push for podium. Beards time from last season were actually very fast (though some people don’t really realize), another year and I expect me. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her with bronze)

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  12. 50fly
    1 alshammar 25.4
    2 sjostrom 25.5 (only if dekker, krowo...etc dont swim)
    3 Ottesen (whos actually swimming this event? )

    100fly
    1sjostrom 56.8 (her stroke reminds me too me of phelps underwater....)
    2coutts 56.9
    3liu 57.1
    (I’m fairly confident with this prediction. Although the next 5, not so much because they’ve will probably be separated by less than .5 seconds)

    200fly
    1liu 203.9
    2jiao204.2
    3belmonte 205.3
    (i think this event is going to be FAST, I think its possible for 5th place to go 205, and maybe 207low just to final. Its very possible that America doesnt final)

    200im
    1coutts 208.8
    2ye 209.1
    3rice 209.3
    (Coutts has looked like an animal 209.6 off altitude? I'm finding it hard to place Kukors, i think its possible for her to have another significant time drop and be in the 208s too, but its a risky pick based on last year. Will be the most stacked (namewise) event on the womens side: Coutts, Ye, Rice, Coventry, Kukors, Hosszu, Verrazto, Belmonte—possibly Miley. All having silver or gold from a medley event in the last 3 years)

    400im
    1 ye 431.5
    2 miley 432.2
    3 rice 432.4
    (beisel will be close to the medals, Ye is one of the Chinese media's most hyped up swimmers based on recent training, age, and etc... my predictions kind of rely on the fact that they come to fruition. This event will be up to who arrives on form because several girls COULD take this one).

    4x1free
    1dutch
    2US
    3germany
    (I would not be surprised to see the US make the upset)

    4x2free
    1china 743.9
    2aus 744.3
    3US 744.9
    (I wasnt very happy choosing china over aus, but I remember the shock I was in when China won every single championship in this event since Beijing. I cant see medals going anywhere else. I expect Hungary for 4rth though)

    4x1medley
    1US 353.0
    2china353.5
    3aus 353.9
    (another event where the WR is not entirely out of reach, this pick is based on if the US goes franklin-soni-vollmer-coughlin. If they go coughlin-soni-magnusson-vollmer, I suspect they may lose around half a second, which I feel would give China the advantage. I may be overshooting the times here though and I cant imagine medals going anywhere else.)

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  13. Robin,
    the only event Franklin was selected to compete in last summer was the 200back and her relay participation is still unknown. Coughlin's individual selections were the 100m back and 100m free. She's a medal contender in both events by not favored in either at this point-- although 100.03 in season is extremely fast for her in the 100m back and I expect her to medal.

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  14. Robin,

    Franklin will only swim 200 back individually, and so far she seems much better in 100 back than in 200.

    Also, in general, the US swimmers are under rated in recent predictions, that's because while other countries had their world trials this year (and hence fully tapered swims by their top swimmers), the US never had peak events. Hence, with the exception of few events/swimmers such as Soni, not many US swimmers are in the current top 10 rankings.

    So the rankings of which many have based their world champs predictions is quite deceiving, and I'm sure the US will generally do better than most predcitions say.

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  15. Thanks, john26!

    The reason I asked is that Coughlin is someone I've been wrong to count out in the past.
    Very curious to see how she does in Shanghai.

    Franklin is still couple of years away, I guess.
    By the way, your predictions rock.
    The times and explanations and everything!

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  16. Also, it's hard to place Coughlin since many (and younger) swimmers have popped sub 54 free and sub 1:00 back recently. You can't look past her for sure, but there's only 3 medals to predict.

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  17. I'm very excited for Shanghai because there's just not one single weak event, while in the past world champs we always got one or two "weak" events.

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  18. Thank you, too, aswimfan!

    I agree with you.
    However, if that is the case, then I guess I don't understand why Lochte is favored to win any event right now in many of these predictions.

    He's looked horrible, and plus the knee injury and whatnot.
    Or are the competitions generally lighter in the men's so that a below-his-standard Ryan Lochte can still win 200 IM at world championships?

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  19. I think that's because most people now knows the style of training at Greg troy's (lochte's coach) club in florida. In the past they always swam real terrible and slow in season but popped amazing times during worlds or olympics (especially in Lochte's case), so people are willing to give him some discount.
    And the second reason is what you already mentioned: the gap between the potential medallists and the one below is much larger in men's events than in women's.

    Honestly, in 200 IM the duo of Phelps and Lochte is as certain as they come, but you ask two different people who they think as the three medallists in women 200 IM, they will most likely give you two totally different sets of names (Coutts, Ye, Rice, Kukors, Hosszu can win the 200 IM on any given day).
    Thats what makes predicting for womens events much more difficult this year. And this why you don't get to see Coughlin and Franklin on many lists.

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  20. Comments are an iteresting addition, a few points to bring in though:

    Could Halsall medal in the fly in London, Vollmer's 57.5 untapered is special but dont forget Halsall has swum 57.4s untapered twice in 2 years (Once slightly taperer), what is her potential in this event that she has only recently taken seriously?

    Also on the 200BK, i dont think Lizzie Simmonds tapered that much for nationals, remember last year her 2.07 flat and 2.06.9 swims were during training cycles, the 2.06 quite a sizeable training cycle as were her 59.9s (At euro's and the Duel), very similar to her times in June, what i picked up on twitter was she has a few days to a week, not a real taper.

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  21. 100 fly will be tough for Halsall, she may make final though.
    let's see the candidates for London

    1. Sjoestrom. She will be 18 or 19 in London and will be at the peak of her swimming career. I predict she will be scary fast. 56.4 will be well within reach by London
    2. Liu Zige. She is improving leaps and bounds in 100. When she swam 2:04 in Beijing, her 100 Pb was only 59!
    3. Coutts. Her improvement rate has been constantly great, especially so in 100 fly/free. I think she will be at least 56.7 by London
    4. Kukla. She is only 15 and already 58 flat. She may get faster, although her small size does not give much for greater improvement
    5. Vollmer. Now that she's focusing on 100 free/fly only, she will likely be sub 57

    There are also a host of sub 57 candidates swimmers such jiao liuyang, the other two brits, christine magnusson.

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  22. Aswim

    Yolane is not that small. She is now around 168 cms or 5'6' .

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  23. A little bird told me that she can already replicate Inge's extreme strength /weight exploits. Plus .

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  24. Oh, I didn't realize that she's not that small, she looks small on TV :)
    So she's actually 1 cm taller than Libby Trickett.

    But she's much smaller than her contemporaries though. Seebohm is 180 cm, Coutts is 176 cm, Mikkayla Sheridan is 178, Missy Franklin is 6'2", and Elizabeth Pelton is 5'9". And I think Cate Campbell is pretty tall too.

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  25. I've also just realized, in Santa Clara, Stephanie Rice actually swam her fastest ever in season pbs, and with the 200 fly being her outright PB.

    Kukors swam great santa clara in 200 IM, but Kukors is training with FAST team (with others such as Soni) and they are known as always swam very fast in season, so I don't expect much drop from her in Shanghai.

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  26. http://www.theage.com.au/sport/swimming/china-tipped-to-be-major-player-in-the-pool-20110708-1h6sw.html

    I'm holding my breath here. Cotterell trains Sun, Zhao, Shao (400m), Ye all of whom have unreal homecoming speed.

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  27. Aswim . Rice did a 2.7.5 but her potential in that event is more for she did 2.09 in 06. It is more part of her prep & confidence booster .

    John -I haven't read the article. Don't have any info on these 4 but the programme has its share of shoulder injuries & training induced sicknesses. Sure to happen (already has with Zhang ) at some time.

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  28. ye shiwen trains with dennis cotterel?
    I never knew this.

    Park Tae Hwan trains with Michael Bohl, right?

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  29. If all goes well, I think Rice will do very exciting times in 200/400 IM. In 2009 even in jaked, she actually swam slower in Santa Clara. granted, she was not well prepared in 2009 and was a bit sick coming off teh attitude in mexico.

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  30. i know lotche doesn't swim well in season but i can't put him on the podium in the 200 free . 2 weeks before worlds he isn't in the top 25 .

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  31. Rice,Ye,Beisel & Miley are going to have a hell of a fight on the 400IM! Rice is throwing down swims all over the place setting SBs as is Beisel and Miley has a 4.35 during heavy training as well as a 4.38 in a week in which she had i think 20 races (Nats)! Cant wait.

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  32. Addressing the comment that the US women are being underestimated because the US did not have their trials and America usually picks up their game for the championships.

    Although I believe this to be true. I also do not believe the American women are anywhere as dominant as the men, or as they have been in the past. I like to think of the American women as one of the dominant teams, not THE team to beat. I actually think team China will come out of this meet as the ones to beat from this meet.

    With that said, the American women only racked up 2 gold medals in Rome by Kukors and Soni. I think part of the issue is that since 07 when they were extremely dominant, the rest of the world has responded to the challenge while the American women have largely remained stagnant. Hoff's 07 times would still be outstanding times for an American right now, but those podium times are unlikely to make make the same podium in Shanghai. Also Coughlin, the most reliable female American medalist has yet to return to her former form. In my opinion we will need to see what Missy Franklin can really do next year as I think it would lift American performances in general.

    As it stands right now, I dont see the American women making more of a podium impression than they did in Rome.

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  33. Actually, The american women were not THAT dominant in 2007. They were roughly the same as the australians (US=9 golds, AUS=8 golds, however, 3 of those US golds came from non-olympic events, so you can say that Australian women were more dominant).

    I see the US team winning at least 4 golds: Soni (100,200), Hardy (50 breast), 400 MR
    with great chance: Kukors (200 IM).
    So my conservative estimate is 4-5 golds for US women.

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  34. I would put Belmonte in that 400im also. Hard to swim by anyone with a 2.6.3 fly stamina a lovely breastroke & a 8.27 free.

    Add Coventry. 2nd Chinese person. Hosszu

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  35. For Jack again,

    If Sun yang wins golds and breaks WRs in 400, 800, and 1,500 in Shanghai, then let's put his name in the same sentence along with Thorpe and Hackett, otherwise, please stop saying Thorpe and Hackett did not have the same range as Sun.

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  36. oops wrong thread

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  37. Yeah, Belmonte could be very dangerous, if only she edits her events.
    Is she really going to swim full program like what she did in Dubai (200 fly, 200/400 IM, 800 free)?
    I think she needs to drop the 800, and maybe the 200 IM too.

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  38. Just an FYI.

    I have the medal table on the women's side looking like this:

    USA - 6 Gold - 2 Silver - 7 Bronze - 15 Total
    CHN - 5 Gold - 4 Silver - 1 Bronze - 10 Total
    NED - 3 Gold - 1 Silver - 2 Bronze - 6 Total
    GBR - 2 Gold - 2 Silver - 2 Bronze - 6 Total
    SWE - 2 Gold - 0 Silver - 0 Bronze - 2 Total
    AUS - 1 Gold - 2 Silver - 5 Bronze - 8 Total
    ITA - 1 Gold - 0 Silver - 1 Bronze - 2 Total
    RUS - 0 Gold - 3 Silver - 1 Bronze - 4 Total
    FRA - 0 Gold - 2 Silver - 0 Bronze - 2 Total
    DEN - 0 Gold - 2 Silver - 0 Bronze - 2 Total
    JAP - 0 Gold - 1 Silver - 0 Bronze - 1 Total
    CAN - 0 Gold - 1 Silver - 0 Bronze - 1 Total
    BLR - 0 Gold - 0 Silver - 1 Bronze - 1 Total

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  39. So, Australia has a total of 1 gold, 2 silver, and 8 bronzes from both men and women? That is a low record for the aussies since 1991.
    I think that is very low estimate for them.

    and imo, your total for USA (14 golds, 6 silvers, 11 bronze) is on the high side of estimate.

    But we'll see in 3 weeks time.

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  40. My newer prediction, taking into account latest announcement from the chinese team:

    50 Freestyle
    Gold: Ranomi Kromowidjojo
    Silver: Therese Alshammar
    Bronze: Marleen Veldhuis

    100 Freestyle
    Gold: Ranomi Kromowidjojo
    Silver: Fran Halsall
    Bronze: Femke Heemskerk

    200 Freestyle
    Gold: Federica Pellegrini
    Silver: Camille Muffat
    Bronze: Bronte Barratt

    400 Freestyle
    Gold: Rebecca Adlington
    Silver: Federica Pellegrini
    Bronze: Kylie Palmer

    800 Freestyle
    Gold: Rebecca Adlington
    Silver: Chloe Sutton
    Bronze: Erika Villaecija

    1500 Freestyle
    Gold: Chloe Sutton
    Silver: Lotte Friis
    Bronze: Kristel Kobrich

    50 Backstroke
    Gold: Gao Chang
    Silver: Aya Terakawa
    Bronze: Sophie Edington

    100 Backstroke
    Gold: Anastasia Zueva
    Silver: Aya Terakawa
    Bronze: Emily Seebohm
    (yeah, I know Seebohm is sick and all but she's a fighter and I expect her to fight this one. She literally passed out after her only swim in the 100 in Australian trials, and she won Santa Clara in sub 1:00 from Missy Franklin even when she was already sick)

    200 Backstroke
    Gold: Megan Nay
    Silver: Elizabeth Simmonds
    Bronze: Belinda Hocking

    50 Breaststroke
    Gold: Jessica Hardy
    Silver: Leiston Pickett
    Bronze: Leisel Jones

    100 Breaststroke
    Gold: Rebecca Soni
    Silver: Leisel Jones
    Bronze: Yulia Efimova

    200 Breaststroke
    Gold: Rebecca Soni
    Silver: Yulia Efimova
    Bronze: Ji Liping

    50 Butterfly
    Gold: Therese Alshammar
    Silver: Inge Dekker
    Bronze: Sarah Sjoestrom

    100 Butterfly
    Gold: Sarah Sjoestrom
    Silver: Alicia Coutts
    Bronze: Liu Zige

    200 Butterfly
    Gold: Liu Zige
    Silver: Jiao Liuyang
    Bronze: Jemma Lowe

    200 Individual Medley
    Gold: Alicia Coutts
    Silver: Ye Shiwen
    Bronze: Ariana Kukors

    400 Individual Medley
    Gold: Hannah Miley
    Silver: Stephanie Rice
    Bronze: Mireia Belmonte

    400 Freestyle Relay
    Gold: Netherlands
    Silver: United States
    Bronze: Australia

    800 Freestyle Relay
    Gold: Australia
    Silver: United States
    Bronze: China

    400 Medley Relay
    Gold: United States
    Silver: Australia
    Bronze: China

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