Swimming fans will get their first chance to see a competition in the new Olympic Aquatics Centre with the 2012 British Championships scheduled to take place there.
This will also mark the first time London has been used for a national championship in over a decade. The last national competition I can remember being held in 'The Big Smoke' was the ASA National Championships at Crystal Palace in 2001.
In Part I and Part II, we looked at how the medalists from the last three Olympic Games were ranked in the year prior to swimming's biggest event.
However, are world rankings really the best indicator to predict success? What about swimmer's who have the ability to 'raise their game' in the big competitions and vice versa. When studying the rankings from the year before the Olympics, I noticed a lot of the best times posted did not come from the World Championships, but instead from either Nationals/Trials or smaller meets in the winter. Therefore I decided to look at the medal winners from the last three Olympics and their performance in the World Championships in the previous year (note - the World Championships before the 2000 Olympics were held in 1998).
Just from looking at the medalists and ranking you should be able to see that Gillingham's statement doesn't hold up, but how close was he to the truth?
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MEN
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World Ranks/Olympics
Men - Top 3 to Gold
Men - Top 10 Rank to Medalist
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2007/2008
14/16 - 87.5%
43/50 - 86%
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2003/2004
14/16 - 87.5%
40/48 - 83.33%
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1999/2000
13/17 - 76.47%
36/48 - 75%
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AVERAGE
41/49 - 83.67%
119/146 - 81.51%
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WOMEN
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World Ranks/Olympics
Women - Top 3 to Gold
Women - Top 10 Rank to Medalist
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2007/2008
9/16 - 56.25%
38/48 - 79.17%
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2003/2004
11/16 - 68.75%
36/49 - 73.47%
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1999/2000
12/16 - 75%
38/49 - 77.55%
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AVERAGE
32/48 - 66.67%
112/146 - 76.71%
The answer, where the men are concerned, is, well... pretty close. In both Beijing and Athens just two gold medalists were ranked outside of the Top 3 in the year before (Beijing - Cesar Cielo - 4th, Ous Mellouli - Not Ranked (serving an 18 month competition ban), Athens - Gary Hall Jr - 14th and the South African 4 x 100m Free team - 9th), whilst in Sydney that number was four. Overall, in the last three Olympics, male gold medalists have come from the Top 3 in the previous year's rankings 83.67% of the time. A similar pattern emerged for the swimmers ranked in the Top 10 in the world who went on to get a medal, a larger percentage in the two previous games than in Sydney and an overall rate for the three Olympics of 81.51%. That's a high percentage, but it by no means supports Gillingham's claim that 'statistically medals always come from those within the Top 10 and gold within the Top 3.'
On the women's side the difference is even starker. Over the last three Olympic Games the average of gold medal winners who ranked in the Top 3 in the year before was just 66.67%. In Beijing alone just 9 of the 16 gold medalists were ranked in the Top 3 the previous year. When it comes to medalists who ranked in the Top 10 the year before, the three Olympics average is 76.71%. Certainly a high proportion, but its worth bearing in mind that nearly a quarter of all medalists ranked outside of the Worlds Top 10 a year before the games. Food for thought for any swimmers on the verge of breaking through internationally.
The great thing about doing a study like this is that for every answer you find, several new directions open up. Tomorrow, I'll look further into what the history books tell us about those who have won Olympic medals in the last 11 years.
Seems like a reasonable enough statement, right? I mean both of those points seem pretty logical. I had a problem with it though, he used the word 'statistically'... well, that was like a red rag to a bull. I had to know whether 'statistically' this was true or not. Turns out it's not.
I started by looking at the Beijing winners and medalists and their world ranking in that event in 2007. Knowing this wouldn't satisfy my thirst for stats I did the same for Athens... and then for Sydney too.
