Results - HERE
Sunday, 13 March 2011
2eme Meeting National de Natation - Montpellier
Results - HERE
Friday, 11 March 2011
Amsterdam Swim Cup - 11- 13 March
Highly coveted World Championship spots are up for grabs at the Amsterdam Swim Cup this weekend. Expect some fast swimming from Holland's finest.
Results & Startlists - HERE
UPDATE - Femke Heemskerk has broken the Dutch 100m Back record in this morning's heats with her time of 1:00.03. Inge Dekker has also qualified for Shanghai with a 57.62 100m Fly.
Monday, 7 March 2011
Pellegrini Responds, 3:57.59 - 400 SCM Free
Clearly outraged at the attention Rebecca Adlington garnered from her 4:02.84 400 LCM Free on Saturday night, Federica Pellegrini responded emphatically.
Yesterday she became the first Italian to break a national record since the suit law changes, winning the 400 SCM Free in a time of 3:57.59. Her 100m splits were 58.99, 1:00.61, 59.17 and 58.82. Not bad for someone in heavy training. Back in December Pellegrini won Bronze in Dubai with a time of 3:59.52, behind Katie Hoff's winning time of 3:57.07.
Worryingly for the rest of the world, it looks like working with Philippe Lucas is already paying dividends.
Italian National Team Championship Results - Here (In the two day meet, she also won the 800m Free in 8:21.24 on Day One)
(Hat tip to Paul Dudley (@paulduds) for the info)
Sunday, 6 March 2011
A Closer Look At Rebecca Adlington's 4:02.84 400m Free
Is Adlington the best 400m Freestyler in the world?
This is not a question of looking at the 2011 world rankings, clearly she leads the rest of the world with such a strong time early in the year. More pressing is whether we should now consider her as the strongest 400m Freestyler in the world? Last week the unanimous choice would have been Federica Pellegrini, the reigning world champion and the fastest in the world last year on a 4:03.12. Adlington's time last year of 4:04.55 was a little way back.
Things changed on Saturday night though. Adlington's time of 4:02.84 gives her the fastest time since the suit laws were changed and even improved upon her gold medal winning time from the Beijing final (although she was slightly faster in the Olympic heats, 4:02.24).
The big question will be how Pellegrini responds. It has been a turbulent few years for the Italian with the death of her coach Alberto Castagnetti, leaving his successor Stefano Morini and joining Phillipe Lucas, the former coach of her arch-rival Laure Manaudou. Having a stable training environment is crucial for any swimmer, especially one who has demonstrated a level of mental fragility over the years. Last year saw a number of 'Did Not Finishes' for the Italian in major meets. She now has a new marker to aim for.
There are also a number of other challengers in the event. Over in America Katie Hoff and Kate Ziegler have returned to their best form and Chloe Sutton is putting together a number of eye-catching 400m swims. Sutton importantly is trending upwards in the event and we have yet to see her at her full potential. All three women swam 4:06 untapered at the Indianapolis Grand Prix this weekend, which bodes extremely well for 2011. France has a strong trio of swimmers with Camille Muffat, Coralie Balmy and Ophelie-Cyrille-Etienne. Australia are always strong and have a number of women knocking on the door of the top of the world rankings and China has some super-talented youngsters emerging, led by Yiwen Shao.
Perfect Pacing?
Adlington's swim had almost exactly the same splits as her Olympic final in 2008. Both swims were out in 59 seconds, 2:01 at the halfway point, and a final 100 under 60 seconds. The only difference was a slightly stronger third 100m last night.
So does this represent the perfect pacing for Adlington, or would she benefit from being out faster in the first 200m? When she comes up against her main rival Federica Pellegrini this summer you can guarantee that the Italian will be out fast, likely in the 1:58 to 1:59 range. Pellegrini went out too slowly in Beijing and could never get back on terms. She clearly didn't swim to her strengths, a mistake she won't make again at a major competition.
In Rome, Adlington was out in 2:00 compared to Pellegrini's 1:59, and the Italian controlled the race from there (in a Jaked suit) to finish in 3:59.15 to Adlington's 4:00.79 (in a Speedo LZR) . Without the mental and physical aid of the suit I don't think Pellegrini will have the same confidence if she is challenged on the third or fourth 100m, and that represents Adlington's chance for victory.
In Shanghai I hope Adlington can get out slightly faster, around the 2:00-low mark, and then set about overhauling Pellegrini and the rest of the field, a competence she is highly skilled in.
Just how fast will her 800m Free be on Friday Evening?
Being faster than her 400 winning time, can she possibly get close to her World Record of 8:14.10? And if not, how about Janet Evans' iconic former World Record of 8:16.22?
I think 8:16 is a real possibility. She swam 8:23 last month at the British University Championships, helped slightly by the fact she was racing men and had someone to chase. Fully tapered and in this kind of form, a 7 second drop would be substantial, but not impossible. More realistic though would be something around 8:20.
Saturday, 5 March 2011
British Championships - 5-12 March 2011
Results - HERE
Live Timing - HERE
Video Highlights - HERE
The draft programme/psych sheet has been released for the British Championships. Taking place earlier than most other countries, the week-long British Champs will run from 5-12 March in Manchester.
The Event Schedule can be found - Here
The selection policy for Worlds can be found - Here
Live Timing - HERE
Video Highlights - HERE
The draft programme/psych sheet has been released for the British Championships. Taking place earlier than most other countries, the week-long British Champs will run from 5-12 March in Manchester.
The Event Schedule can be found - Here
The selection policy for Worlds can be found - Here
Thursday, 3 March 2011
11. Schwimmfest des SV Halle
The majority of Germany's top swimmers will be competing in Halle this weekend in the 11. Schwimmfest des SV Halle (LCM).
This competition
Psych Sheet - Here
Results (should appear) - Here
Indianapolis Swimming Grand Prix
The Indy Grand Prix starts today. Its another All-Star affair with leading swimmers from USA (Phelps, Lochte, Clary, Lezak, Shanteau, Vanderkaay, Grevers, Thoman, Hoff, Sutton, Franklin, Vollmer, Hardy, Ziegler, Smit) and Internationally (Kitajima, Mellouli, Rogan, Morningstar, Poon).
Results - HERE
Psych Sheet - HERE
Saturday, March 5
800 Free (W)
200 IM
200 Back
100 Free
1500 Free (M)
400 Medley Relay
LIVE VIDEO
Live video by Ustream
Results - HERE
Psych Sheet - HERE
| Thursday, March 3 200 Free 100 Breast 100 Butterfly 400 IM 400 Free Relay | Friday March 4 200 Fly 50 Free 100 Back 400 Free 200 Breast 800 Free Relay |
Saturday, March 5
800 Free (W)
200 IM
200 Back
100 Free
1500 Free (M)
400 Medley Relay
LIVE VIDEO
Live video by Ustream
Wednesday, 2 March 2011
Swimming at the 2012 Olympic Games - Day 1 Roundtable
With the recent announcement of an unchanged Olympic Schedule for London 2012, what better time to go through some of the talking points with two esteemed swim bloggers, Braden Keith of The Swimmers Circle (BK) and David Rieder (theswimgeek.com) (DR). We start with the Men's events on Day One.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable
Men's 400m IM - With the same schedule as 2008 released, will Michael Phelps now reconsider his decision to drop the 400m IM from his list of events?
TW - I think the chances of Phelps swimming the 400m IM have increased slightly, although I remain sceptical that he will take the event on. He doesn't need to go for 8 events again and whilst Bob Bowman might have been able to persuade him to keep swimming it in 2008, I don't think he can this time around. If he's training for the 100m Free I just can't see him going for the 400 IM. The 400 Free on the other hand...
TW Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Cseh (If Mellouli didn't have the 400m Free, i'd pick him for Bronze). Wildcard - Chaoseng Huang, silver medalist at the Asian Games, just 16 years old and 1.90m tall. I'm taking him over the 1.69m tall, 20 year old gold medalist Yuya Horihata.
BK - I think you nailed it on the head, Tom. At this point, Phelps no longer has to prove his versatility by competing in the whole kitchen sink at the Olympics. It seems as though his goal now is to pick some very specific "pet" events, and prove to the world that he can beat any swimmer in the world in any specific event, rather than before when he had to prove that he could beat EVERY swimmer in EVERY event. With that sort of paradigm shift, the 400 IM is the natural event to drop.
BK Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Verraszto (the only swimmer near the top of the pile who actually DROPPED time after taking off the wetsuit). Wildcard: Chad le Clos-Like Tom's pick, this is another baby on the international scene. He's already huge, and has a frame that looks like it can handle a lot more muscle still.
DR - I think he made the decision to do it at Pan Pacs mostly because he saw an opening.. Now, there is no such motivation. Lochte and Clary have been 1-2 in the world the past two years. Anyone's pick for 1-2 in Shanghai and London. If this race wasn't the first of the meet, I'd give Clary a slight chance to beat Lochte in 16 months. But Lochte will be fresh and ready to go. I think both will beat Phelps' WR at either Trials, London, or both, and they should re-establish the US 1-2 tradition in the event. Dolan and Namesnik went 1-2 in 1996, Dolan and Vendt in 2000, and Phelps and Vendt in 2004. Cseh catching Lochte in 2008 shook things up obviously.
Now, it gets tricky. Someone else could (unlikely though) sneak into the top two. We saw the coming-out party of Conor Dwyer at SECs, 3:37 400 IM, which is a couple tenths of Lochte's best time. In December - when Dwyer had swam the race once ever - a coach told me he thinks Dwyer will make the team in the 400 IM. And on top of that, Robert Margalis, the perennial bridesmaid, won short course Nationals in a 3:40, pretty solid. Could be more up in the air than last time, where second-place Lochte went nearly 8 seconds faster than third-place Margalis.
DR Prediction - Tom is right that Mellouli would be a huge threat if it did not conflict with the 400 IM. As for Cseh, he struggled at this point in the last Olympic cycle too - lost European Short Course Champs, 5th at Worlds. He might be too good not to medal. Could be a tight race to qualify for Hungary too, with the likes of Verraszto and Gergo Kis. As for darkhorses, I too was thinking of Chad Le Clos, and also Israel's Gal Nevo and Brazil's Thiago Pereira have to be considered threats. To throw a name out: if Italy's Alessio Boggiatto is still swimming, he has finished fourth in the last three Olympics - no joke, it must be fate - and he was World Champ in 2001. Blast from the past!
Men's 400m Free - What role will World record-holder Paul Biedermann have in the race? Can Park Tae Hwan defend? How will the Chinese fit in? Will any Americans be ready to race the 400 and go for medals in London? Will anyone be under 3:40?
DR - To respond to Tom's post, I doubt Phelps steps up here. With such a rushed preparation, he needs to focus on 100s and 200s. Shame he never got the chance to show the world what he can do, and I think he would have gone sub-3:40 in Beijing.
I watched him race Cochrane and Rob Hurley in the 400 in Santa Clara in June 2009 (his second meet post-Beijing). Two bodylength lead at the 200, out in 1:51.0. Bodylength at the 350. Wins by a fingernail, 3:48.0. Hasn't swum it since.
DR Prediction 1) Park in a World Record; 2) Sun Yang, possibly also under 3:40, and 3) Agnel - he scares me.
Other established contenders: Zhang Lin, Peter Vanderkaay/Charlie Houchin/other Americans, Ryan Cochrane, Nikita Lobintsev. Darkhorses: Hurley/Ryan Napoleon - any Australians, Sebastian Rouault, Takeshi Matsuda (yes, he swims 400 free)
BK - If there's an American that can step up in the 400 free, I think that it's Peter Vanderkaay. He was good, though not awesome, in 2010, but he's now training in Gainesville. I can only imagine what working with Lochte day-in and day-out is going to do for his times.
Cochrane is another interesting name. He's going to be more dangerous in the longer distance, but he showed some potential in this race at Pan-Pacs.
Biedermann is still in this race. He proved in the World Cup and Dubai that he is not just a "suit swimmer" as he has been so harshly criticized in recent years. Don't think Agnel is ready yet in 2012, but I'm ready to just about hand him the Rio gold medal already.
BK Prediction: 1) Park; 2) Paul Biedermann; 3) Yang Sun With an upset special of Ryan Cochrane.
DR - A 400 long course is a different animal than short course. I have utmost (well almost) confidence in Biedermann's abilities to be in the hunt in the 200. I feel like that distance background (miles, 800s, etc.) are essential to be a factor against some of these other guys. I've also heard his focus is now on the 200...
TW - I see Biedermann making the final, but missing the medals as it stands right now. I think his heart lies in the 200 and the 'glamour' battles he faces in that event. One thing I will say for Biedermann, he is a great racer, if the final is a cagey affair and he has a chance in the last 100m I wouldn't bet against him.
Interesting fact - Apart from the boycotted 1980 games, there has never been an Olympic Top 3 in the 400m Free that hasn't included either an American or an Australian. I would say at this stage, that its looking more than likely we will see history being made in London. Right now I see it as a battle between Park Tae-Hwan, Sun Yang and Oussama Mellouli and I believe one, if not all three, will be sub-3:40 by 2012. Agnel is a scary prospect, but like Biedermann, I feel his speed makes him more suitable for the 200. What a great advert for the global reach of swimming to have a podium consisting only of athletes from Asia and Africa.
Its not looking like such a strong event for USA (or Australia). Peter Vanderkaay is a tremendous swimmer but he has a lot of ground to make up on the leading guys in the event. One possible source of hope for USA is my wildcard pick Conor Dwyer (assuming Lochte and Clary make the US team on the 400m IM). If he can translate his Short Course Yards swimming into Long Course Meters he could be a classic American Olympic contender who seemingly (to the non-American world) comes from nowhere.
TW Prediction - 1. Sun Yang (scary how good he could be next year), 2. Park Tae-Hwan, 3. Oussama Mellouli. Wildcard - Conor Dwyer.
BK - That's a great factoid Tom. I wonder if that has anything to do with the American paradigm shift where everyone wants to be an IM'er. The swimmers who previously would've had the mentality to do that middle-distance freestyle now instead all want to be IM'ers like Michael Phelps.
Men's 100m Breaststroke - In 2010, there's little doubt that Kitajima was the best breaststroker in the world. But by London 2012, he will be almost 30, and his countrymate Ryo Tateishi will just be hitting his prime. Is there any chance that Tateishi knocks him off? And what about the American situation. How much will Shanteau benefit from battling with Kitajima every day at Trojan, and what sort of potential does Alexandrov have in the long course pool? Does this leave Gangloff as the odd man out? And can Brenton Rickard get back on his form from 2009 after what was an admittedly off-the-wall season for the Aussies?
BK - I want to believe that Kitajima will have a dropoff, but he certainly didn't show it last year. Trojan seems to be the KINGS of breaststroke right now, and so I think Shanteau will have a lot of improvement between now and London. The second spot will be down to Alexandrov and Gangloff...I've gotta take a peaking Alexandrov over a declining Gangloff for the other spot in this race.
I think that Rickard needs to take his focus off of Shanghai, and use the first part of this year to really settle himself down. Between the mess in India, and the 47 or so Championship meets the Australians had, he was never able to hit his training cycles at the right intervals. If he can really take a long-term view of this training year, I think he'll be fine for London.
BK Prediction - 1) Kosuke Kitajima, 2) Ryo Tateishi (the heir apparent), and 3) Eric Shanteau. Darkhorse: Igor Borysik from the Ukraine...that national program is really starting to pull things together.
TW - I made a vow a few years ago to never doubt Kitajima in any race of importance, and you know what, it's worked out pretty well for me so far. He is the greatest breaststroker of all time and I expect him to sweep to victory in the 100m.
I love the Tateishi pick for silver. I'm not sure if the wider world realizes yet, but Japan has more depth in Men's Breaststroke than any other nation. Domestic competition only improves a nation's chances, so I can definitely see a Japan 1-2 in both the 100 and 200 Breast. Whether it is Tateishi or Naoya Tomita/Yuta Suenaga/Takuro Fujii is another story. The one threat I see to the Japanese dominance comes from Alexander Dale Oen. He didn't race with the techsuits in '09 and returned to form with a bang last year.
TW Predictions - 1. Kitajima. 2. Tateishi. 3. Dale Oen. Wildcard - Brendan Hansen. Whilst it hasn't been confirmed, by all accounts Hansen is back in training. Whilst Ed Moses has officially announced his return, in a long course pool Hansen is the one man that can get close to Kitajima's level.
BK - Dale Oen did have a good season last year, and maybe he will be bolstered by the fact that he was never spoiled by the tech suits. He's still capable of going lifetime bests, unlike much of his competition, and maybe this will keep him motivated. Does anyone know what Oen's current training situation is like?
Japan really has developed some incredible depth. Tateishi is young, and already had one of the best times in the world last year. Remembering that this meet is a year out, it seems hard that anyone at the top of the rankings (this is an aging group of breaststrokers, worldwide) will be able to catch him.
So Tom, what DO you see happening with the USA breaststrokers, besides obviously Hansen getting into the top two? Which of the other three do you see joining him, or do you think it will be an all-comeback squad of Moses and Hansen?
TW - USA Men's Breaststroke is seen as a weakness, but at the end of the day you still had the 8th (Gangloff), 9th (Alexandrov) and 11th (Shanteau) fastest guys in the world last year. You also have uber-talents Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen returning so its not all doom and gloom. It certainly should be strong enough to see you through in the 4 x 100 Medley relay.
If I had to pick the two US guys in the 100m at this point I would say Hansen and Alexandrov. Kind of a mix between an old head and a new talent. Hansen was incredible at his best and Alexandrov has a bright future ahead of him. I can see the Ed Moses comeback ending in a national final, but not much more than that. Shanteau I'd pick for the 200 and Gangloff is the odd man out.
DR - Unless you guys want to read novellas every night, let me respond! First of all: you guys need to look at the history of Tateishi. Always performs well in the spring meets, including Nationals, but never when it matters. At Pan Pacs, 1:00.09 in prelims; fourth in finals, with a time that would have won silver. Ninth in Rome, nowhere near his season best. You get the picture. Also a really small guy, and suits/taper do very little for him. Japan does have some stellar depth, but this is going to be an extremely tight race, and I can't imagine one country picking up two medals. And Suenaga announced his retirement yesterday, FYI. Something about not enjoying being obliterated by Kitajima.
Borysik is similar - inconsistent, and he's never had a big performance when it matters. Wildcard/darkhorse a good spot for him, but many others like him.
My prediction: 1) Dale Oen, 2) Kitajima, 3) van der Burgh
I am surprised neither of you has mentioned van der Burgh (1:00.10 at Commonwealth Games - big meet). He has far more explosive power than anyone in the field (perfect contrast with Tatieshi actually). As for Dale Oen, he missed the short course season with some sort of injury, forget what, but he's back at it. I honestly believe that this pick is not just that I don't want Kitajima to be the first to three-peat (Phelps' flys are a few days later).
Rickard (and Spenger) will be in the mix, as will both Americans. If Hansen has enough time, he has the capabilities to get to the level of Kitajima. Moses is unfulfilled potential. Of the three guys on the scene right now, only Alexandrov may be able to keep up with Hansen and Moses if they were to have a full preparation. He is still on the rise too. That said, never count out Shanteau or Gangloff. In late May, I told Chris DeSantis I didn't think Gangloff would be top-two this year. He proceeded to bust out a 1:00.7 at Paris Open and win bronze (ahead of Tatieshi) at Pan Pacs and make me look stupid. Will be tight - others like Marcus Titus also in the mix. I do think it will take under 1:00 to make the U.S. team.
No one talks about Hugues Duboscq either - is he a darkhorse, or do we just think he should be a dinosaur? Real darkhorses include Fabio Scozolli, Felipe Silva, and Daniel Gyurta - two 50 guys and a 200 guy. This is a very wide open event, and I could see times going out the window in the final. If that happens, it comes down to racing and pure guts - which is how someone like Brendan Hansen could win.
BK - But can we really pigeon-hole Tateishi into what he is when he's still only 21? All young swimmers have those consistency issues, but as he matures, I think he'll clear up some of those issues and perform better. I thought about van der Burgh. I thought, and thought, and thought. When I was going through swimmers in my head to pick for the top 3, his name kept popping up in my head, but I couldn't bring myself to pick him long course.
Duboscq is going to be almost 31 by then...and unlike Kitajima, he seems to be going the wrong direction.
DR - Who won bronze in Rome in the 100 breast as the youngest in the field? Right... Yeah I tend to forget about Duboscq - then he does something good.
2012 Olympics Day One Roundtable
Men's 400m IM - With the same schedule as 2008 released, will Michael Phelps now reconsider his decision to drop the 400m IM from his list of events?
TW - I think the chances of Phelps swimming the 400m IM have increased slightly, although I remain sceptical that he will take the event on. He doesn't need to go for 8 events again and whilst Bob Bowman might have been able to persuade him to keep swimming it in 2008, I don't think he can this time around. If he's training for the 100m Free I just can't see him going for the 400 IM. The 400 Free on the other hand...
TW Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Cseh (If Mellouli didn't have the 400m Free, i'd pick him for Bronze). Wildcard - Chaoseng Huang, silver medalist at the Asian Games, just 16 years old and 1.90m tall. I'm taking him over the 1.69m tall, 20 year old gold medalist Yuya Horihata.
BK - I think you nailed it on the head, Tom. At this point, Phelps no longer has to prove his versatility by competing in the whole kitchen sink at the Olympics. It seems as though his goal now is to pick some very specific "pet" events, and prove to the world that he can beat any swimmer in the world in any specific event, rather than before when he had to prove that he could beat EVERY swimmer in EVERY event. With that sort of paradigm shift, the 400 IM is the natural event to drop.
BK Prediction - Lochte, Clary, Verraszto (the only swimmer near the top of the pile who actually DROPPED time after taking off the wetsuit). Wildcard: Chad le Clos-Like Tom's pick, this is another baby on the international scene. He's already huge, and has a frame that looks like it can handle a lot more muscle still.
DR - I think he made the decision to do it at Pan Pacs mostly because he saw an opening.. Now, there is no such motivation. Lochte and Clary have been 1-2 in the world the past two years. Anyone's pick for 1-2 in Shanghai and London. If this race wasn't the first of the meet, I'd give Clary a slight chance to beat Lochte in 16 months. But Lochte will be fresh and ready to go. I think both will beat Phelps' WR at either Trials, London, or both, and they should re-establish the US 1-2 tradition in the event. Dolan and Namesnik went 1-2 in 1996, Dolan and Vendt in 2000, and Phelps and Vendt in 2004. Cseh catching Lochte in 2008 shook things up obviously.
Now, it gets tricky. Someone else could (unlikely though) sneak into the top two. We saw the coming-out party of Conor Dwyer at SECs, 3:37 400 IM, which is a couple tenths of Lochte's best time. In December - when Dwyer had swam the race once ever - a coach told me he thinks Dwyer will make the team in the 400 IM. And on top of that, Robert Margalis, the perennial bridesmaid, won short course Nationals in a 3:40, pretty solid. Could be more up in the air than last time, where second-place Lochte went nearly 8 seconds faster than third-place Margalis.
DR Prediction - Tom is right that Mellouli would be a huge threat if it did not conflict with the 400 IM. As for Cseh, he struggled at this point in the last Olympic cycle too - lost European Short Course Champs, 5th at Worlds. He might be too good not to medal. Could be a tight race to qualify for Hungary too, with the likes of Verraszto and Gergo Kis. As for darkhorses, I too was thinking of Chad Le Clos, and also Israel's Gal Nevo and Brazil's Thiago Pereira have to be considered threats. To throw a name out: if Italy's Alessio Boggiatto is still swimming, he has finished fourth in the last three Olympics - no joke, it must be fate - and he was World Champ in 2001. Blast from the past!
Men's 400m Free - What role will World record-holder Paul Biedermann have in the race? Can Park Tae Hwan defend? How will the Chinese fit in? Will any Americans be ready to race the 400 and go for medals in London? Will anyone be under 3:40?
DR - To respond to Tom's post, I doubt Phelps steps up here. With such a rushed preparation, he needs to focus on 100s and 200s. Shame he never got the chance to show the world what he can do, and I think he would have gone sub-3:40 in Beijing.
I watched him race Cochrane and Rob Hurley in the 400 in Santa Clara in June 2009 (his second meet post-Beijing). Two bodylength lead at the 200, out in 1:51.0. Bodylength at the 350. Wins by a fingernail, 3:48.0. Hasn't swum it since.
Biedermann is going to have to focus on the 200 for a chance at an Olympic medal. Just can't see him making a mark in the 400 long course anymore with the Asian guys and even Mellouli at full force.
DR Prediction 1) Park in a World Record; 2) Sun Yang, possibly also under 3:40, and 3) Agnel - he scares me.
Other established contenders: Zhang Lin, Peter Vanderkaay/Charlie Houchin/other Americans, Ryan Cochrane, Nikita Lobintsev. Darkhorses: Hurley/Ryan Napoleon - any Australians, Sebastian Rouault, Takeshi Matsuda (yes, he swims 400 free)
BK - If there's an American that can step up in the 400 free, I think that it's Peter Vanderkaay. He was good, though not awesome, in 2010, but he's now training in Gainesville. I can only imagine what working with Lochte day-in and day-out is going to do for his times.
Cochrane is another interesting name. He's going to be more dangerous in the longer distance, but he showed some potential in this race at Pan-Pacs.
Biedermann is still in this race. He proved in the World Cup and Dubai that he is not just a "suit swimmer" as he has been so harshly criticized in recent years. Don't think Agnel is ready yet in 2012, but I'm ready to just about hand him the Rio gold medal already.
BK Prediction: 1) Park; 2) Paul Biedermann; 3) Yang Sun With an upset special of Ryan Cochrane.
DR - A 400 long course is a different animal than short course. I have utmost (well almost) confidence in Biedermann's abilities to be in the hunt in the 200. I feel like that distance background (miles, 800s, etc.) are essential to be a factor against some of these other guys. I've also heard his focus is now on the 200...
TW - I see Biedermann making the final, but missing the medals as it stands right now. I think his heart lies in the 200 and the 'glamour' battles he faces in that event. One thing I will say for Biedermann, he is a great racer, if the final is a cagey affair and he has a chance in the last 100m I wouldn't bet against him.
Interesting fact - Apart from the boycotted 1980 games, there has never been an Olympic Top 3 in the 400m Free that hasn't included either an American or an Australian. I would say at this stage, that its looking more than likely we will see history being made in London. Right now I see it as a battle between Park Tae-Hwan, Sun Yang and Oussama Mellouli and I believe one, if not all three, will be sub-3:40 by 2012. Agnel is a scary prospect, but like Biedermann, I feel his speed makes him more suitable for the 200. What a great advert for the global reach of swimming to have a podium consisting only of athletes from Asia and Africa.
Its not looking like such a strong event for USA (or Australia). Peter Vanderkaay is a tremendous swimmer but he has a lot of ground to make up on the leading guys in the event. One possible source of hope for USA is my wildcard pick Conor Dwyer (assuming Lochte and Clary make the US team on the 400m IM). If he can translate his Short Course Yards swimming into Long Course Meters he could be a classic American Olympic contender who seemingly (to the non-American world) comes from nowhere.
TW Prediction - 1. Sun Yang (scary how good he could be next year), 2. Park Tae-Hwan, 3. Oussama Mellouli. Wildcard - Conor Dwyer.
BK - That's a great factoid Tom. I wonder if that has anything to do with the American paradigm shift where everyone wants to be an IM'er. The swimmers who previously would've had the mentality to do that middle-distance freestyle now instead all want to be IM'ers like Michael Phelps.
Men's 100m Breaststroke - In 2010, there's little doubt that Kitajima was the best breaststroker in the world. But by London 2012, he will be almost 30, and his countrymate Ryo Tateishi will just be hitting his prime. Is there any chance that Tateishi knocks him off? And what about the American situation. How much will Shanteau benefit from battling with Kitajima every day at Trojan, and what sort of potential does Alexandrov have in the long course pool? Does this leave Gangloff as the odd man out? And can Brenton Rickard get back on his form from 2009 after what was an admittedly off-the-wall season for the Aussies?
BK - I want to believe that Kitajima will have a dropoff, but he certainly didn't show it last year. Trojan seems to be the KINGS of breaststroke right now, and so I think Shanteau will have a lot of improvement between now and London. The second spot will be down to Alexandrov and Gangloff...I've gotta take a peaking Alexandrov over a declining Gangloff for the other spot in this race.
I think that Rickard needs to take his focus off of Shanghai, and use the first part of this year to really settle himself down. Between the mess in India, and the 47 or so Championship meets the Australians had, he was never able to hit his training cycles at the right intervals. If he can really take a long-term view of this training year, I think he'll be fine for London.
BK Prediction - 1) Kosuke Kitajima, 2) Ryo Tateishi (the heir apparent), and 3) Eric Shanteau. Darkhorse: Igor Borysik from the Ukraine...that national program is really starting to pull things together.
TW - I made a vow a few years ago to never doubt Kitajima in any race of importance, and you know what, it's worked out pretty well for me so far. He is the greatest breaststroker of all time and I expect him to sweep to victory in the 100m.
I love the Tateishi pick for silver. I'm not sure if the wider world realizes yet, but Japan has more depth in Men's Breaststroke than any other nation. Domestic competition only improves a nation's chances, so I can definitely see a Japan 1-2 in both the 100 and 200 Breast. Whether it is Tateishi or Naoya Tomita/Yuta Suenaga/Takuro Fujii is another story. The one threat I see to the Japanese dominance comes from Alexander Dale Oen. He didn't race with the techsuits in '09 and returned to form with a bang last year.
TW Predictions - 1. Kitajima. 2. Tateishi. 3. Dale Oen. Wildcard - Brendan Hansen. Whilst it hasn't been confirmed, by all accounts Hansen is back in training. Whilst Ed Moses has officially announced his return, in a long course pool Hansen is the one man that can get close to Kitajima's level.
BK - Dale Oen did have a good season last year, and maybe he will be bolstered by the fact that he was never spoiled by the tech suits. He's still capable of going lifetime bests, unlike much of his competition, and maybe this will keep him motivated. Does anyone know what Oen's current training situation is like?
Japan really has developed some incredible depth. Tateishi is young, and already had one of the best times in the world last year. Remembering that this meet is a year out, it seems hard that anyone at the top of the rankings (this is an aging group of breaststrokers, worldwide) will be able to catch him.
So Tom, what DO you see happening with the USA breaststrokers, besides obviously Hansen getting into the top two? Which of the other three do you see joining him, or do you think it will be an all-comeback squad of Moses and Hansen?
TW - USA Men's Breaststroke is seen as a weakness, but at the end of the day you still had the 8th (Gangloff), 9th (Alexandrov) and 11th (Shanteau) fastest guys in the world last year. You also have uber-talents Ed Moses and Brendan Hansen returning so its not all doom and gloom. It certainly should be strong enough to see you through in the 4 x 100 Medley relay.
If I had to pick the two US guys in the 100m at this point I would say Hansen and Alexandrov. Kind of a mix between an old head and a new talent. Hansen was incredible at his best and Alexandrov has a bright future ahead of him. I can see the Ed Moses comeback ending in a national final, but not much more than that. Shanteau I'd pick for the 200 and Gangloff is the odd man out.
DR - Unless you guys want to read novellas every night, let me respond! First of all: you guys need to look at the history of Tateishi. Always performs well in the spring meets, including Nationals, but never when it matters. At Pan Pacs, 1:00.09 in prelims; fourth in finals, with a time that would have won silver. Ninth in Rome, nowhere near his season best. You get the picture. Also a really small guy, and suits/taper do very little for him. Japan does have some stellar depth, but this is going to be an extremely tight race, and I can't imagine one country picking up two medals. And Suenaga announced his retirement yesterday, FYI. Something about not enjoying being obliterated by Kitajima.
Borysik is similar - inconsistent, and he's never had a big performance when it matters. Wildcard/darkhorse a good spot for him, but many others like him.
My prediction: 1) Dale Oen, 2) Kitajima, 3) van der Burgh
I am surprised neither of you has mentioned van der Burgh (1:00.10 at Commonwealth Games - big meet). He has far more explosive power than anyone in the field (perfect contrast with Tatieshi actually). As for Dale Oen, he missed the short course season with some sort of injury, forget what, but he's back at it. I honestly believe that this pick is not just that I don't want Kitajima to be the first to three-peat (Phelps' flys are a few days later).
Rickard (and Spenger) will be in the mix, as will both Americans. If Hansen has enough time, he has the capabilities to get to the level of Kitajima. Moses is unfulfilled potential. Of the three guys on the scene right now, only Alexandrov may be able to keep up with Hansen and Moses if they were to have a full preparation. He is still on the rise too. That said, never count out Shanteau or Gangloff. In late May, I told Chris DeSantis I didn't think Gangloff would be top-two this year. He proceeded to bust out a 1:00.7 at Paris Open and win bronze (ahead of Tatieshi) at Pan Pacs and make me look stupid. Will be tight - others like Marcus Titus also in the mix. I do think it will take under 1:00 to make the U.S. team.
No one talks about Hugues Duboscq either - is he a darkhorse, or do we just think he should be a dinosaur? Real darkhorses include Fabio Scozolli, Felipe Silva, and Daniel Gyurta - two 50 guys and a 200 guy. This is a very wide open event, and I could see times going out the window in the final. If that happens, it comes down to racing and pure guts - which is how someone like Brendan Hansen could win.
BK - But can we really pigeon-hole Tateishi into what he is when he's still only 21? All young swimmers have those consistency issues, but as he matures, I think he'll clear up some of those issues and perform better. I thought about van der Burgh. I thought, and thought, and thought. When I was going through swimmers in my head to pick for the top 3, his name kept popping up in my head, but I couldn't bring myself to pick him long course.
Duboscq is going to be almost 31 by then...and unlike Kitajima, he seems to be going the wrong direction.
DR - Who won bronze in Rome in the 100 breast as the youngest in the field? Right... Yeah I tend to forget about Duboscq - then he does something good.
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