Thoughts from US Nationals - Day Four and Five

Lets get straight to the bullets to finish off the US Nationals round-up...

- Is Ryan Lochte currently the best male swimmer on the planet? Yes.

Some facts:- Mark Spitz was the greatest swimmer of all-time. Michael Phelps is the greatest swimmer of all time. Kosuke Kitajima is the greatest Breaststroker of all-time. Aaron Peirsol is the greatest Backstroker of all-time. In 2010, Ryan Lochte is the best swimmer in the world.

On Friday night I witnessed one of the greatest 200m IM swims of all-time. It had everything. A great race, personal significance for both Lochte and Phelps and a potential dawning of a new era. It also happened to be the fastest swim ever in a textile suit. (Lochte's 1:54.84 eclipses Michael Phelps' 1:54.98 from the World Championships in 2007).

One other thing the race had was Phelps getting blown away on a turn. Lochte's Fly-Back turn was unbelievable. If there was any debate on who is the best underwater swimmer in the world, I think it was answered during US Nationals this year.

Is it a surprise that Lochte has shone in 2010? One of the biggest benefits the suits offered was on the underwater section after starts and turns, now that we're back to a level playing field those who excel on underwaters will rise to the top once again.

(If you're interested in the statement 'one of the greatest 200m IM swims of all-time', the greatest 200m IM performance for me was Phelps winning the World Championships in 2003)


- Did Speed Endurance get a subtle shout-out from Mel Stewart on Swimnetwork's coverage of the 800m Free?



At 3"24 on the video above... "A lot of people were saying this after her 400m Free, you know what she had the fastest 400 Freestyle of any swimmer in the pool...swimming. But her turns, not there."

I'm not so sure about 'a lot of people', but I certainly said it and I stick by the statement.

Swimming is a sport of evolution and no-one can accurately predict what will happen in 2 months let alone 2 years but as it stands right now, Federica Pellegrini is the best 400m Free swimmer in the world. She has 100m speed that the other women can't match and enough stamina to last a 400m. She might even have enough for the 800m which we will find out over the next year or two.

The list of those capable of beating Pellegrini over 400m is pretty small. Britain's Rebecca Adlington and Jo Jackson look like the front-runners. France's Coralie Balmy and Camille Muffat could have a chance if they continue to improve, one of the Australian women might make the step-up. Katie Hoff is certainly well on her way back to top form and could get back on terms. I think Sutton needs to be on the list of potential 400m Free world beaters. She certainly has the swimming speed to compete already and it now becomes a question of technical improvement. An admirable quality Sutton possesses is how she reacts to this. Quoting Mel Stewart once again,

"I talked to Sutton about this and she said 'I know my turns aren't there but you know it gives me something to work on. I can feel positive about that."

Feeling positive when somebody points out something you're not doing as well as you could is the stuff of champions.


- Very pleased for Jessica Hardy making the Pan Pac team on the 100m Freestyle. Competing at her first Nationals for 2 years the meet had not been going well for her. Despite leading both the 50m Free and 100m Breast she fell off the pace in both races and her participation at Pan Pacs (and Worlds in 2011) was looking a little shaky. Against such a mentally tough backdrop, the second place finish in the 100m Freestyle becomes all the more impressive.

- The future looks bright for the US men's 1500m. Chad LaTourette should have plenty of years left but potentially even more exciting are the emergences of Sean Ryan, 17, and Arthur Frayler, 16. Ryan (15:04.84) and Frayler's (15:07.37) world top 10 times are extremely impressive for an event that tends to be dominated by more senior swimmers.

(Sceptical? Last year's World Champs finalists and birth years -
David Davies 1985, Zhang Lin 1987, Ryan Cochrane 1988, Sun Yang 1991, Oussama Mellouli 1984, Marco Rivera 1983, Federico Colbertaldo 1988, Samuel Pizzetti 1986)

- The women's 200m Breaststroke WR looks like its on borrowed time. It survived US Nationals, not sure it will make it through Pan Pacs.

Thoughts from US Nationals Day Two

Day Two at US Nationals can be summed up in one word... 'odd'.

The two oddest moments from last night

1. Victory in the Men's 100m Backstroke goes to.... David Plummer?

This was billed as THE race of this competition. It had been the subject of more hype than any other. Natalie Coughlin's return to competition, Phelps coming back from defeat in the 200m Free last year, Ryan Lochte's new shoes .... nothing could compete with the prospect of the 100m Back final at US Nationals possibly being stronger than any other 100m Back race in the world this year.

The stage was set. One of the greatest backstrokers of all-time, Aaron Peirsol, had struggled all year, but in typical fashion returned to form just before the meet started. Nick Thoman broke the Short Course World Record at Duel in the Pool and was considered the heir apparent to Peirsol's throne. Uber-talented Matt Grevers swam 53.05 back in March at the Austin Grand Prix off a short taper. Peirsol, Thoman and Grevers were clear favourites but with Ryan Lochte possibly competing and Randall Bal, David Russell, Ben Hesen and NCAA Champ Eugene Godsoe threatening the race had some interesting possible connotations.

The one guy who seemingly didn't get a mention, David Plummer from Minnetonka Swim Club, upset them all. It was a fantastic job by Plummer. 53.60 is a world class time and he took his opportunity superbly.

Two questions. Why was Grevers nearly a second down on his time from the Austin Grand Prix? Will Liam Tancock's 52.85 time from British Nationals still be top of the world rankings following Europeans & Pan Pacs?


2. What happened to Michael Phelps on the 200m Fly?

Phelps was visibly 'off' during his 200m Fly. His start was poor (anytime you see him come up alongside his competitors you know its gone badly wrong). His first turn was average. His second turn was shocking and the third turn wasn't much better. For Phelps a time of 1:56.00 is pedestrian at best.

Mel Stewart summed it up best during commentary - 'I bet he's done that in practice before'. One question a lot of people want to know is how many practices has Phelps been to this year?

It was a strange night for Phelps. He turned it on in the 200m Free. 1:45.61 is a quality swim and notably is the fastest in the world this year so far, but for Ryan Lochte to get so close to Phelps was interesting. One of Phelps' biggest strengths is his ability to recover during a session. That 200m Free really took a toll on Phelps and he admitted as much during the post race interview after the 200m Fly.



Fortunately Natalie Coughlin was there to offer some normality to the evening's proceedings with victory in the 100m Back. She just doesn't lose this event at US Nationals. Elizabeth Pelton finished fourth and really needs to find her best form on the 200m Back if she's going to qualify for Pan Pacs.


For anyone interested in the prediction contest, I'm sitting in second right now. My plan is to do an Allison Schmitt, hang with the early pace before edging ahead on the final run in....

1. Reed 107
2. Tom (SpeedEndurance) 100
3. David "THE Swim Geek" Rieder 98
4. G. John 88
4. Matt 88
6. Rob 83
7. John 81
8. Andy 80
9. Chris "TAKE THAT!" DeSantis 73
9. Braden 73
11. Jerry 70

Thoughts from US Nationals

Not only are the US Nationals the fastest nationals in the world, they are also the best covered. I could do a standard play-by-play recap of all events but that has already been done here, here, and here. As usual you also have the pleasure of reading all about the effects the evil suits had on swimming here.

Its Bullet-Time

Chloe Sutton won that 400m Free. Fact. I know if you watch the race and look at the results it will show her coming third behind Katie Hoff and Allison Schmitt, but in my eyes she's the new US Champion.

In terms of the 'swimming' done during the race Sutton was clearly faster than both Hoff and Schmitt. If that race was held in a 400m pool or even a 100m pool she would have won by a distance. Sutton gave Hoff half a meter at every single turn. Despite this Sutton finished in 4:06.33, 0.83 down on Hoff and good for 8th in the world this year.

This is what makes Sutton such an exciting swimmer. There is so much improvement that can be made on her races technically. Turns are amongst the easiest improvements that can be made. Even if she never gets them to the level of Hoff, if she can lessen the damage done on each turn she could dominate the women's freestyle from 400m-10k for many years.

The most exciting part of the men's 400m Freestyle was the B final. Sure, the A final saw Peter VDK do his thing as well as Michael Klueh and Charles Houchin make the step up to world class level...

...but the A final didn't showcase a 15 year old boy racing to a 3:53.04. Evan Pinion, who last year broke two of Michael Phelps' 13-14 yr old age group records, is now ranked 54th in the world this year. Just incase you were skim reading, Pinion is 15! He wouldn't have been eligible (too young and too non-European) for the recent European Junior Championships 400m Final and still would have finished second.

The women's 200m IM was an interesting race. Ariana Kukors winning it came as no surprise. If anything I expected her to be faster (sub 2:10). Her time from the final (2:10.54) was slower than her time from Austin back in March (2:10.34). When she faces Steph Rice at Pan Pacs we should see that sub 2:10 swim and a serious crack at Yanyan Wu's tainted textile best mark of 2:09.72.

Caitlin Leverenz (6th in the world) and Morgan Scroggy (8th in the world) really stepped up taking second and third respectively. For the rest of the field we were able to get some clues about where they are at:-

Watch out for Missy Franklin. Franklin had the fastest freestyle split of the entire race and looks on top form in Irvine.

Elizabeth Beizel and Pelton had solid if not spectacular swims. Worringly for Pelton her backstroke split of 33.32 ranked only sixth in the final last night, a strange fact given her strong showings on 100m and 200m Back so far this year.

What happened to Julia Smit? She went from setting NCAA and American records back in February over 200yd and 400yd IM to finishing eigth in the final with 2:14.01. Last year she missed the final at LC World's but broke the SC World Record. Until she proves otherwise, I'm seeing Smit as a short course specialist.

Ryan Lochte is pretty tidy swimmer over 400m IM. He also designs shoes.

I wonder whether Lochte will get close to Phelps' textile mark of 4:06.22 at Pan Pacs. He was 3.76 secs off that in the final, with the majority of that time lost on the freestyle leg.

Phelps - 25.56/55.05/1:26.70/1:58.18/2:33.30/3:09.33/3:38.43/4:06.22
Lochte - 26.02/55.95/1:27.02/1:58.06/2:34.54/3:10.75/3:41.35/4:09.98

Finally... Didn't we get rid of the suits so that we can now talk about the racing and the swimmers. Looks like they didn't receive the memo over at SwimNews. Its August now and the first 8 paragraphs of their preview for US Nationals are about suits... Yawn.

US Nationals - Predictions Contest

Recap of all the participants taking part in the US Nationals Predictions Challenge.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0AmKNofXojGLrdDE3bTRZRWM2Y3VlRjFsVjh1RDRDZkE&hl=en&single=true&gid=0&output=html

Feeling pretty good about my picks.

Surprised I was the only one picking NCAA champ Ann Chandler to medal on the 100m Breast. She was dominant at NCAA's and should be primed to step up over LC meters. I was also the only one to pick Chloe Sutton to win the 400m Free. I know Katie Hoff is having a resurgent year and is the fastest ranked American this year, but Sutton has already beaten her on the Grand Prix circuit. I think Sutton has more to offer in this event and (provided her turns have improved) could post a 4:04-4:05 time. I also expect good things from Justine Mueller on the 200m IM, but couldn't bring myself to put her ahead of Kukors, Smit or Hoff. The women's 200m IM is stacked.

I salute Braden Keith for choosing Matt Grevers to win the 100m Back. I have him a close second behind Peirsol... Not too sure about picking Eugene Godsoe to finish third though.

Live Results - Here

US Nationals - Predictions - Final Version

US Nationals has for a long time been one of my favourite competitions of the year. The level of domestic competition is in a different league to every other swimming nation on the planet. Coming from Britain my chances in the prediction contest may be written off before the competition gets under way. I hope they are. Whilst I wouldn't dream of damaging the 'special relationship' between Britain and America... it would be awesome to win this thing.

The one advantage I am counting on is my objectivity. I am not clouded by favouritism for swimmers, clubs, universities, states or former glories (try and spot Jason Lezak in my 100m Free picks). Most importantly, I don't have a nickname riding on the result...


Women

50m Free

1. Kara Lynn Joyce
2. Amanda Weir
3. Jessica Hardy

100m Free

1. Dana Vollmer
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Amanda Weir
4. Kara Lynn Joyce
5. Jessica Hardy
6. Missy Franklin

200m Free

1. Allison Schmitt
2. Dana Vollmer
3. Katie Hoff
4. Dagny Knutson
5. Missy Franklin
6. Ariana Kukors

400m Free

1. Chloe Sutton
2. Allison Schmitt
3. Katie Hoff

800m Free

1. Chloe Sutton
2. Kate Ziegler
3. Emily Brunemann

100m Back

1. Elizabeth Pelton
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Missy Franklin

200m Back

1. Elizabeth Pelton
2. Elizabeth Beisel
3. Margaret Hoelzer

100m Breast

1. Rebecca Soni
2. Jessica Hardy
3. Ann Chandler

200m Breast

1. Rebecca Soni
2. Keri Hehn
3. Megan Jendrick

100m Fly

1. Dana Vollmer
2. Natalie Coughlin
3. Christine Magnuson

200m Fly

1. Mary Mohler
2. Elaine Breeden
3. Kim Vandenberg

200m IM

1. Ariana Kukors
2. Julia Smit
3. Katie Hoff

400m IM

1. Katie Hoff
2. Julia Smit
3. Elizabeth Beisel

Men

50m Free

1. Nathan Adrian
2. Josh Schneider
3. Garrett Weber Gale

100m Free

1. Nathan Adrian
2. David Walters
3. Garrett Weber Gale
4. Jimmy Feigen
5. Matt Grevers
6. Ricky Berens

200m Free

1. Michael Phelps
2. Peter Vanderkaay
3. Ryan Lochte
4. Ricky Berens
5. Conor Dwyer
6. David Walters

400m Free

1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Michael Klueh
3. Chad La Tourette

1500m Free

1. Peter Vanderkaay
2. Chad La Tourette
3. Michael Klueh

100m Back

1. Aaron Peirsol
2. Matt Grevers
3. Nick Thoman

200m Back

1. Ryan Lochte
2. Michael Phelps
3. Aaron Peirsol

100m Breast

1. Eric Shanteau
2. Mark Gangloff
3. Mike Alexandrov

200m Breast

1. Eric Shanteau
2. Mike Alexandrov
3. Scott Spann

100m Fly

1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler McGill
3. Thomas Shields

200m Fly

1. Michael Phelps
2. Tyler Clary
3. Robert Bollier

200m IM

1. Michael Phelps
2. Ryan Lochte
3. Eric Shanteau

400m IM

1. Ryan Lochte
2. Tyler Clary
3. Alex Vanderkaay

2010 ConocoPhillips National Championships - 8/3/2010 to 8/7/2010

US Nationals - Pan Pac Trials - August 3rd - 8th

The psych sheet has been released for US Nationals - Psych Sheet Here

Prediction contest hosted by David 'The Swim Geek' Rieder - Here (controverial nickname up for grabs in a challenge with Chris De Santis)