Where does Team USA stand heading into London 2012? Freestyle Edition

We have now seen Olympic Trials in the majority of leading swimming nations, with Germany's  trials still to come May 9 - 14. There will be some noteworthy swimming events coming up over the next couple of months, but in terms of Olympic selection the attention will soon shift firmly to the US trials in Omaha in late June.

As hard as it is to say as a non-American, I can't help but feel like the Olympic trials so far in the other nations have been a support act for the main headliner... and in true rock star style, they are making us wait.

Here is a breakdown of where I see the US standing in each event, and how their stock has risen /taken a fall  or stayed the same = since Shanghai. First off, we take a look at the Freestyle events.

50m Free

Men  Nathan Adrian remains USA's best bet for a medal in this event and outside of Cesar Cielo's 21.38 from the Maria Lenk Trophy, won't have seen anything too concerning so far this year. Fred Bousquet won't be there which is also a plus, but Bruno Fratus' emergence just about cancels that out. Behind Adrian they have comeback kid Anthony Ervin, established guys such as Garrett Weber Gale, Jason Lezak and Cullen Jones, as well as a group of young sprinters who they will look to make a step forward (particularly Josh Schneider and Jimmy Feigen).
Women = No real change. Jessica Hardy,who finished 8th in Shanghai, was the top ranked American in 2011. A spot in the final with an extremely slim medal chance still appears to be on the cards at this point. The challenge to break into the upper echelons of the event has become harder with Fran Halsall and Ranomi Kromowidjojo joining Therese Alshammer in the 24.1s this year. The reason for the = sign and not the dreaded downward arrow is simple... Dara Torres. Until we see what shape Torres is in, the jury remains tantalisingly out.

100m Free

Men  The US men have been well and truly 'Magnussened'. Before Shanghai, Nathan Adrian was one of the favourites for gold, but is currently barely clinging to his place in the medal discussion. Australian's Magnussen and Roberts as well as Cesar Cielo, Brent Hayden and even Yannick Agnel all have the edge at this point in time. Realistically, Adrian needs to show up with a sub-48 second swim in Omaha to get back into the frame.

Women  Missy Franklin is the unknown quantity in the 100m Free right now for the US. She swam an impressive 53.63 last summer, but has since seen Ranomi Kromowidjojo (52.75) and Sarah Sjostrom (53.05) move well clear in the rankings. It remains to be seen what Franklin and/or Natalie Coughlin et al can do, but the rest of the world, particularly Europe, has taken big strides forward during and since Shanghai.

200m Free

Men = Tough event to grade. On the plus side for the US, we haven't seen any further progression from either Sun Yang or Park Tae-Hwan so far in 2012. However, Yannick Agnel's 1:44.42 from French Trials represents the biggest threat to US dominance since 2009. Agnel's time was 0.02 seconds quicker than Ryan Lochte's winning time from Shanghai, and while Lochte and Phelps are still favourites in the event, Agnel has a great shot at playing spoiler. We're also waiting to see what sort of form Paul Biedermann is in at German trials next week.
Women = Another tough grade to give. On the one hand, Camille Muffat's textile best time of 1:54.87, closely followed by Sarah Sjostrom's 1:55.23 have moved the event forward this year. However, neither time seems out of reach of Missy Franklin (1:55.06 last year) or even Allison Schmitt (1:55.83 untapered in January). Federica Pellegrini is still to show her strongest hand in 2012 and can't be discounted.

400m Free

Men  This may raise some eyebrows given that the US have been relatively weak in this event in recent years, but the door has been left ajar by Yannick Agnel's decision not to compete the 400m Free. Only Sun Yang has been quicker than Peter Vanderkaay's time from the Shanghai final this year, and if Vanderkaay improves in his second year in Florida he could pose an even greater challenge to Sun Yang, Park Tae-Hwan and Paul Biedermann for a medal. The US will also look to Matt McLean, Charlie Houchin or Michael Klueh to get into the reckoning for a top 8 spot in London.

Women  The 400m Free has really kicked into gear so far this year. Camille Muffat set a new textile best time of 4:01.13, Rebecca Adlington continues to improve her textile best and is now down to 4:02.35 and Kylie Palmer has also lowered her best to 4:03.40. Added to that group, we are still yet to see a 100% Federica Pellegrini or Lotte Friis this year. The American women have depth, but they need to improve considerably to challenge for a medal. Allison Schmitt's 4:05.90 and Katie Hoff's 4:07.00 untapered swims  are good signs, but still not in the same league as the women listed above. It may take a swim of 4:04 or 4:05 to have a chance of making the final in London.


800m Free

Women  There is better news for the US women in the 800m Free. Although Rebecca Adlington is faster than she was last year and Lotte Friis is still expected to be her main competition, the 800 Free hasn't seen the level of improvement that the 400m Free has. Chloe Sutton has been 8:26 already this year and Kate Ziegler's bronze medal time(8:23.36) from Shanghai has only been bettered by Adlington (8:18.54) and China's Xin Xin (8:22.76) this year. At to the mix some young Americans (Gillian Ryan, Katie Ledecky) who could take big strides this year and the Americans medal prospects still seem strong in this event.


1500m Free

Men = The US qualified two men for the 1500m final in Shanghai, but neither Chad La Tourette (5th, 14:52.36) or Peter Vanderkaay (6th, 15:00.47) could get close to the medal podium. This year has seen Park Tae Hwan swim 14:47, the emergence of Britain's Daniel Fogg (14:55) and China's Hao Yun (14:58), and the return to form of David Davies (15:00). On the plus side for the US, they have good depth in this event with several men knocking on the 15 minute barrier last year (Andrew Gemmell, Sean Ryan, Arthur Frayler, Evan Pinion, Michael Klueh, Mike McBroom, Ryan Feeley) who could be primed for a breakthrough this year.

Top 51 Swimmers of 2011 - 41 to 32

As another year of great swimming comes to a close, here is a rundown of the Top 50 Swimmers of 2011. There is no set criteria, but clearly the World Championships in Shanghai carried a big weight in the decision making process. That being said, outstanding achievements away from Shanghai were still acknowledged.

Here is the rundown from 40 to 31.

41. Brendan Hansen – 2011 Highlight – Beating world champion Daniel Gyurta at the Duel in the Pool.

Hansen makes the list not so much for his performances, which still put him in the world top 10, but for the fact that of all the comebacks during the last two years, his has been by far the most successful. To be under 2:10 in the 200m Breast at this stage of Hansen’s return is scary. Hansen v Kitajima v Gyurta should be a classic, Tomita, von Lehm and Shanteau will all try to crash the party.

40. Camille Muffat – 2011 Highlight – Missing out on two silver medals in Shanghai by a combined 0.10 seconds.

This selection may raise a few eyebrows, especially considering that Kylie Palmer who finished ahead of Muffat in the 200 Free in Shanghai missed out on the Top 50. Muffat’s inclusion was based on her impressive last 12 months. The Nice trained swimmer is a model of consistency in middle distance Freestyle. In the last year she has registered 7 of the top 25 performances in the 200m Free and 6 in the 400 Free (including 3 of the top 7). Her 4:03.23 400 Free effort at French nationals puts her in elite company with Federica Pellegrini and Rebecca Adlington.

39. Paul Biedermann – 2011 Highlight – Silencing some of his critics by taking two bronze medals in Shanghai in two of the deepest events on the men’s side.

Biedermann, like Muffat, came back from Shanghai with two bronze medals, but when you consider the swimmers he beat on his way to those medals, his place in the Top 50 should become clearer: Park Tae-Hwan, Yannick Agnel, Nikita Lobintsev, Ous Mellouli, Peter Vanderkaay, Ryan Cochrane. It is also worth remembering that Michael Phelps beat Biedermann by just 0.09 in the 200m Free. His time of 1:44.88 moved him ahead of Pieter van den Hoogenband to 4th 5th on the all-time textile ranking list.

Jessica Hardy Makes The 100m Breaststroke Interesting Again

At the Brazilian Championships today, Rebecca Soni had her closest race since the switch to textile suits. The challenge came from a rejuvenated Jessica Hardy.  Soni was still able to win the race by 0.34 seconds (1:05.79 to 1:06.13), which isn’t exactly ‘close’… but the fact that Hardy has regained her form in this event makes things a lot more interesting looking ahead to London. Although Soni is currently in a class of her own, Hardy’s pure speed poses a legitimate threat.

This result should also shift Hardy’s focus back onto Breaststroke. For a while it looked as though she was morphing exclusively into a sprint Freestyler.

During the recent Olympic roundtable discussion I took Yulia Efimova ahead of Hardy, but after being cleared to compete in 2012 and today’s swim I’m moving Hardy up to 3^rd, behind Soni and Jones. For anyone playing along at home, I suggest moving Hardy up a few spots on your cheat sheet. Unfortunately the American didn’t qualify in this event for Shanghai so we won’t get a chance to see all the contenders rumble until we reach the big show next year.

Best to let Hardy have the last word:

FINA/ARENA Swimming World Cup - Singapore 16-17 October

 

The third leg of the FINA/ARENA Swimming World Cup takes place in Singapore (16-17 October) with arguably the best field so far this year.

All eyes will be on Natalie Coughlin (USA) who makes her return to short course metre competition. Coughlin has been in good form so far in 2010 and with her world class starts and turns, expect some fast swimming from the American ace. Also representing a strong USA squad will be Jessica Hardy, Randall Bal, Peter Marshall, Julia Smit, Elaine Breeden and Madison Kennedy.

A host of medal winners from the recent Commonwealth Games will also be on show. Australia's team includes medalists Leisel Jones, Marieke Guehrer, Hayden Stoeckel and James Richardson. South Africa are also sending a strong team led by Roland Schoeman, Cameron Van Der Burgh, Lyndon Ferns, Darian Townsend, Graemme Moore and Kathryn Meaklim. Canada's team includes Victoria Poon, Genevieve Saumur and Audrey Lacroix as well as seasoned IM swimmer Brian Johns.

Europe has a number of medal contenders competing with strong challenges likely to come from Therese Alshammer, Stefan Nystrand, Lars Frolander (SWE),Dominik Meichtry (CHE), Steffen Deibler, Dorothea Brandt, Jenny Mensing, Kerstin Vogel (GER), Hanna Maria Seppala (FIN), Hinkelein Schreuder (NED), Arkady Vyatchanin, Grigory Falko and Sergey Fesikov (RUS).

Results & Start Lists - Here
Official Site - Here
For anyone in Singapore - Tickets can be found here

US Themed Swimming Fix

- Over at Swimnetwork, Mike Gustafson has written an impressive premise for a new swimming movie. Not gritty enough for my taste, but should be a box office hit.

Here's my idea for a swimming movie...



All Done. Actually... make the US team be a bunch of dangerous, yet sensitive, vampires/werewolves and we have ourselves a hit.

- Josh Schneider has won his appeal to overturn his DQ at US Nationals. To refresh the memory, Schneider was unknowingly entered into the 100m Fly event which he didn't swim. As he failed to inform the meet organisers of his withdrawal they DQ'd him from his next event, the 50m Free. Schneider swam the event under protest and tied Cullen Jones for second in the final with a blazing 21.97, but subsequently had his DQ confirmed.  As a result of this appeal, Schneider will be able to join up with the US National team and will have a swim-off against Jones to decide who takes the second 50m Free spot at next year's World Champs.

Common sense seems to have prevailed. Why we continue to have these pedantic rules in swimming baffles me. If you've taken illegal drugs, false start or attach a jet engine to your back, then you should be DQ'd. If you do nothing wrong in an event apart from no-showing for the heats of another, that to me is not valid grounds.

- I'm not even going to attempt to explain the situation regarding the Athlete Partnership Plan in the US as Garrett McCaffrey and Tyler Clary do a great job in the video below:-



- Saving the best news until last... Swimming at the Commonwealth Games start in just 15 days.

Thoughts from US Nationals Day Three

Normality returned to US Nationals on Day Three. Michael Phelps swam a rapid 100m Fly (second fastest time in a textile suit), Rebecca Soni blasted her 100m Breast and Nathan Adrian confirmed his status as one of the very best sprinters in world swimming. There were also a number of other stories of note from last night.

Let's get through this together...

- Josh Schneider's DQ was ridiculous. Simply ridiculous. I hope he gets off on his equally ridiculous technicality and gets to swim at Pan Pacs. He deserves to as he did nothing wrong during the 50m Freestyle. After all the controversies of suits and the new rules being introduced, why does the sport need to employ such drastic and unnecessary measures for simply skipping an event without informing the meet organisers? To DQ someone in swimming it needs to be for a valid reason... false start, more than 15m under water, illegal suit, doped up to the eyeballs etc. Schneider did none of these (hopefully).

Make Schneider pay $20 for missing the race, make him run round the pool in a Borat Mankini, but don't disqualify the guy when he did nothing wrong during the event.

- Hat tip to Nathan Adrian for becoming the fourth fastest man ever in a textile suit behind Cesar Cielo (21.55 this year), Alexander Popov (21.64 in 2000) and Roland Schoeman (21.69 in 2005). I would say its safe to now say that he is firmly established in the top tier of world sprinting alongside Mr. Cielo, Mr. Bernard and Mr. Bousquet. His 100m Freestyle today could be something special.

- Some swimmers who win nationals benefit from being in the right place at the right time. They may have had an incredible taper which allows them to be in the perfect condition to race. The competition may have had an off day, bad taper or let pressure get to them. Caitlin Leverenz winning the 400m IM was the exact opposite of that.

Watching that 400m IM it was clear to me that Leverenz must be considered USA's new No.1 in the event (and yes there is a difference between winning nationals and being the No.1 swimmer in an event in my eyes). The lead she gained after the Breaststroke leg was enormous. Leverenz split 1:15.56, the next fastest Breaststroke leg was Katie Hoff's 1:18.74. Whilst Leverenz' freestyle leg leaves a lot to be desired (she will need to shave some time off her 1:05.12 split at Pan Pacs), her breaststroke is a weapon that the rest of the world should be fearful of.

Breastroke splits of the women ranked ahead of Leverenz on the 400m IM this year
Katinka Hosszu - 1:19.80
Steph Rice - 1:19.83
Hannah Miley - 1:17.39
Xuanxu Li - No idea (no access to the results/splits from Chinese Nationals)

(Socaladvracer, who commented on David Rieder's blog, has been spot on with his singling out of not only Leverenz but also Morgan Scroggy to do well.)

- Rebecca Soni has a lot more to come on the 100m Breaststroke. Soni's time of 1:05.73 moves her to No. 1 in the world this year but it masked the fact that she had a poor start and poor finish. The second 50m of her race though was one of the most impressive 50 meters I have seen all year. She completely destroyed the rest of the field.

Spare a thought for Jessica Hardy. It has been a rough few years for Hardy and she is making her first appearance at Nationals for 2 years. She led both the 100m Breaststroke and 50m Freestyle finals last night before slipping away towards the end of both races.

(Weird fact from the 100m Breaststroke final last night. Rebecca Soni was the only swimmer to improve upon her heat time. Everyone else was slower in the evening's final.)

- Finally... You think Ryan Lochte is the only swimmer to have his own personalised shoes? Think again. This is the final proof that Britain is catching up with America in swimming.

NOVAQUATICS - SPEEDO Grand Challenge

The NOVAQUATICS - SPEEDO Grand Challenge takes place from May 28th to May 30th. The field is stacked with quality swimmers and we should see a number of top times as world swimming starts to enter its summer season.

Swimmers to Watch

Vladimir Morozov

Morozov is coming off his recent National High School records in the 50y and 100y Freestyle. This meet will give the swimming world a chance to see what he can do over LC metres. One thing is for sure, Morozov is in top form. He has the added incentive of being able to show some of his future USC teammates what they can expect next year. Morozov has a tough 6-event schedule (200 Free, 200 IM, 50 Free, 100 Fly, 100 Back, 100 Free). The good news for US Swimming... Although born and raised in Russia, he wants to represent the USA in international competition.

(Check out highlights of his recent swims in the video below - Hat tip to OC Varsity for the video)



Cindy Tran

Morozov isn't the only recent National High School record breaker. Cindy Tran also set a new mark in the 100y Back. Like Morozov, Tran has a busy schedule and is down to compete in the 50m Free, 100m Fly, 200m Back, 100m Back and 100m Free. Tran, who will head to California-Berkeley next year, looks to have a real chance in the 100m Back at this meet.

Rebecca Soni & Jessica Hardy

Training partners Rebecca Soni and Jessica Hardy will continue their friendly rivalry. Soni has been one of world swimming's top performers in 2010 with stunning (untapered) times in the 100m (1:05.90) and 200m Breast (2:22.21).

Hardy on the other hand has just been given the excellent news that she successfully fended off the appeal from WADA to increase her anti-doping ban to 2 years. Whilst her participation in the 2012 Olympics is still in the balance this news should give Hardy a huge psychological lift going into this weekend. For those wanting a much better insight into what Hardy has been going through, I suggest reading Dominik Meichtry's blog.

Kosuke Kitajima

For as long as Kitajima continues to swim he will appear as a 'swimmer to watch' in every meet he competes in. The Japanese Breaststroke star has a few questions to answer after some mixed results at the Japanese Nationals. After setting a new Japanese record in the 50m Breast semis (27.30) and a strong showing in the 100m Breast (59.91) there is no problem with his speed. However, the wheel's came off in the 200m Breast final and it was not his first loss of the year in that event. Competition will come from NCAA Champ Damir Dugonjic. Irish fans should keep an eye on what kind of form Andrew Bree is in.

Thiago Perreira/Markus Rogan/Tyler Clary

World Class swimmers Pereira, Rogan and Clary will face each other in a variety of events. 200 IM (Rogan & Pereira), 200 Back (Rogan & Clary), 400 IM (Clary & Pereira). Rogan and Pereira have been in fine form so far in 2010. Clary took silver in the 400 IM at the World Champs in Rome last year.

Nathan Adrian & Jason Lezak

Adrian and Lezak will lock horns in the 50m and 100m Free. It will be fascinating to see where Adrian and Lezak will end up in the 2010 world rankings. Setting the pace this year are Fred Bousquet with 21.71 in the 50m Free and Alain Bernard with 48.32 in the 100m Free.

Chloe Sutton vs Katie Hoff

Sutton and Hoff will resume their battle in the 400m Free. Sutton has prevailed in the 400 Free meetings so far in 2010. The 400m Free is an event with a logjam in the world rankings with a number of swimmers between 4:05 and 4:10. Sutton's best time of 2010 is 4:07.41 (9th) whilst Hoff has posted 4:10.57 (23rd), both women can move up several places with slight improvements on those times.

UPDATE - From Twitter - @csutswim - Speedo Grand Challenge tomorrow! Getting there at 630 to do a workout for 2 hours then swimming the 400. I'll be scratching finals.

British Interest

British distance freestyler Richard Charlesworth goes into the 1500m ranked second behind the tough American Chad La Tourette. Michael Klueh will also pose a threat having been in good form this year on the US Grand Prix circuit.


Psych Sheet - Here

Live Results - Here