Percentage Changes By Event Pre/Post Polyurethane suits

One area of the swimming world which I believe has been overlooked is a statistical analysis of the effect Polyurethane suits had on the sport. We hear about how many WRs we've seen since they were introduced but that is where the figures stop. I've chosen to look closer at the impact of the suits on WRs. By publishing these figures I hope to show which events moved on faster than others since the introduction of Polyurethane suits. This should give us some insight into which events we may see new WRs in the next few years. If you take a slight leap of faith - the lower the percentage change, the less impact the suit had on the pre-Polyurethane WR and the more likely they could be broken in 2010 suits.

. Pre-Poly WR Post-Poly WR %age Change . 50m Freestyle 21.64 Alexander Popov 20.91 Cesar Cielo 3.373% . 100m Freestyle 47.84 P. v.d Hoogenband 46.91 Cesar Cielo 1.944% . 200m Freestyle 1:43.86 Michael Phelps 1:42.00 Paul Biedermann 1.791% . 400m Freestyle 3:40.08 Ian Thorpe 3:40.07 Paul Biedermann 0.005% . 800m Freestyle 7:38.65 Grant Hackett 7:32.12 Zhang Lin 1.424% . 1500m Freestyle 14:34.56 Grant Hackett 14:34.56 Grant Hackett 0% . 50m Backstroke 24.8 Thomas Rupprath 24.04 Liam Tancock 3.065% . 100m Backstroke 52.98 Aaron Peirsol 51.94 Aaron Peirsol 1.963% . 200m Backstroke 1:54.30 Ryan Lochte 1:51.92 Aaron Peirsol 2.082% . 50m Breaststroke 27.18 Oleg Lisogor 26.67 van der Burgh 1.876% . 100m Breaststroke 59.13 Brendan Hansen 58.58 Brenton Rickard 0.93% . 200m Breaststroke 2:08.50 Brendan Hansen 2:07.31 Christian Sprenger 0.926% . 50m Butterfly 22.96 Roland Schoeman 22.43 Rafael Munoz 2.308% . 100m Butterfly 50.4 Ian Crocker 49.82 Michael Phelps 1.151% . 200m Butterfly 1:52.09 Michael Phelps 1:51.51 Michael Phelps 0.517% . 200m Individual Medley 1:54.98 Michael Phelps 1:54.10 Ryan Lochte 0.765% . 400m Individual Medley 4:06.22 Michael Phelps 4:03.84 Michael Phelps 0.967% . 4 x 100m Freestyle 3:12.46 USA 3:08.24 USA 2.193% . 4 x 100m Medley 3:30.68 USA 3:27.28 USA 1.614%

. 4 x 200m Freestyle 7:03.24 USA 6:58.55 USA 1.108% . . . Pre-Poly WR Post-Poly WR %age Change . 50m Freestyle 24.13 Inge de Bruijn 23.73 Britta Steffen 1.658% . 100m Freestyle 53.3 Britta Steffen 52.07 Britta Steffen 2.308% . 200m Freestyle 1:55.52 Laure Manaudou 1:52.98 Federica Pellegrini 2.199% . 400m Freestyle 4:02.13 Laure Manaudou 3:59.15 Federica Pellegrini 1.231% . 800m Freestyle 8:16.22 Janet Evans 8:14.10 Rebecca Adlington 0.427% . 1500m Freestyle 15:42.54 Kate Ziegler 15:42.54 Kate Ziegler 0% . 50m Backstroke 28.09 Li Yang 27.06 Zhao Jing 3.667% . 100m Backstroke 59.44 Natalie Coughlin 58.12 Gemma Spofforth 2.221% . 200m Backstroke 2:06.62 Krisztina Egerszegi 2:05.24 Kirsty Coventry 1.09% . 50m Breaststroke 30.31 Jade Edmistone 29.8 Jessica Hardy 1.683% . 100m Breaststroke 1:05.09 Leisel Jones 1:04.45 Jessica Hardy 0.983% . 200m Breaststroke 02:20.5 Leisel Jones 2:20.12 Annamay Pierse 0.299% . 50m Butterfly 25.33 A Kammerling 25.07 Therese Alshammar 1.026% . 100m Butterfly 56.61 Inge de Bruijn 56.06 Sarah Sjöström 0.972% . 200m Butterfly 2:05.40 Jessicah Schipper 2:01.81 Liu Zige 2.863% . 200m Individual Medley 2:09.72 Yanyan Wu 2:06.15 Ariana Kukors 2.752%

. 400m Individual Medley 4:32.89 Katie Hoff 4:29.45 Stephanie Rice 1.261% . 4 x 100m Freestyle 3:35.22 GER 3:31.72 NET 1.626% . 4 x 100m Medley 3:55.74 AUS 3:52.19 CHI 1.506% . 4 x 200m Freestyle 7:50.09 USA 7:44.31 AUS 1.23%

If we break this down by stroke, we find some interesting results. I've taken the percentage changes from the WRs of 50s, 100s and 200s of all 4 strokes and compared the total effect.

Mens

Freestyle - 7.108% (50 - 3.373%, 100 - 1.944%, 200 - 1.791%)
Backstroke - 7.110% (50 - 3.065%, 100 - 1.963%, 200 - 2.082%)
Breaststroke - 3.733% (50 - 1.876, 100 - 0.930%, 200 - 0.926%)
Butterfly - 3.977% - (50 - 2.308%, 100 - 1.151%, 200 - 0.517%)

Womens

Freestyle - 6.164% (50 - 1.658%, 100 - 2.308%,200 - 2.199%
Backstroke - 6.977% (50 - 3.677%, 100 - 2.221%, 200 - 1.090%)
Breaststroke - 2.965% (50 - 1.683%, 100 - 0.983%, 200 - 0.299%)
Butterfly - 4.861% (50 - 1.026%, 100 - 0.972%, 200 - 2.863%)

From these figures it appears that, in terms of WRs being broken, the suits benefited male and female Backstrokers and Freestylers significantly more than they did male and female Breaststroke and Fly swimmers. I predict that the WRs in the Women's Breaststroke events especially could be at risk in 2010 suits sooner than many would expect.

I predict the first 5 Individual WRs to be broken in the near(ish) future

Women's 1500m Freestyle - 15:42.54 - Kate Ziegler set her mark in a non Polyurethane suit and so this has to be the favourite for the first WR to go with 2010 suits.
Women's 200m Breaststroke - 2:20.12 - Annamay Pierse was only 0.299% (0.38 secs) under Leisel Jones non-Poly mark. With Jones, Soni and Pierse driving each other on, this WR is a definite possibility.
Women's 800m Freestyle - 8:14.10 - Rebecca Adlington was just 0.427% (2.12 secs) under Janet Evans' 1989 mark. Judging by Adlington's sub 4:00 SC time at Duel in the Pool in a 2010 suit I think her current WR in this event under threat.
Men's 200m Butterfly - 1:51.51 - Michael Phelps only bettered his non-Poly WR by 0.517% (0.58 secs). Who would put it past Phelps to be the first swimmer to break a Polyurethane WR in a 2010 suit? Not me.
Men's 1500m Freestyle - 14:34.56 - One of the truly historic WRs in world swimming. Grant Hackett's ridiculous mark from 2001 was one of only 2 WRs to survive the Polyurethane onslaught. Some have predicted that this mark will remain well into this decade, but with the chasing pack including Mellouli, Cochrane, Park, Zhang and Prilukov this will be a record they will be desperate to beat.