Evaluating Ian Thorpe's Return

Ian Thorpe's first attempt back in the world of competitive swimming is in the books. As the dust settles, let's evaluate how it went.

Positives

- Thorpe was considerably faster in the Tokyo World Cup leg than he was in Singapore and Beijing.
- In Tokyo he was able to hold on much better in the second half of races showing that his 'race fitness' was improving. In theory, the more competitions he does, the better this will become.
- Thorpe, his coach Gennadi Touretski and Australian head coach Leigh Nugent were making all the right noises at each world cup stop, stating that the comeback was still on course.
- His freestyle stroke still looks more suited to the 200m Free, which we are yet to see. At this stage his best bet at Olympic qualification looks to be the 4 x 200m Free relay.
- We've just seen Thorpe at his rustiest and he was still only half a second down on established guys like Alain Bernard in heats. For all we know, Thorpe could have dropped another second in the 100m Free final had he qualified.
- Thorpe still has 4 long months of training ahead of him before Australian Trials.

Negatives

- Thorpe only has 4 short months of training ahead of him before Australian Trials.
- Thorpe still has A LONG way to go. He failed to final in his two best swims, Tokyo's 100m Free and 100m Fly. In the 100m Free he was a full 2 seconds behind the eventual winner Kyle Richardson's time.
- Richardson sums up his problem. There might not be a more difficult relay team to make than the reigning world champion Aussie 4 x 100m Free team.
- He's going to need to work even harder on his starts and turns. 4 months might will not be long enough to catch up on these technical aspects. All he can do now is mitigate his losses in these areas. Nugent believes that he is trying to stay under water too long on his turns.
- One comment that Thorpe made stuck out like a sore thumb - "This week has been challenging, I wish I could have done it with no-one watching - but that's unfortunately not the case." This is the same guy that retired from the sport because of the intense media scrutiny he was under. Hopefully the same demons that haunted him in previous years aren't resurfacing before the comeback has really taken shape.

Thorpedo's Times (best times and splits in bold)

Singapore

100m IM (Heat) - 56.74 (26.14 / 30.60)
100m IM (Final) - 56.33 (25.14 / 31.19)
100m Fly (Heat) - 54.09 (25.27 / 28.82)

Beijing

100m Free (Heat) - 50.21 (24.00 / 26.21)
100m IM (Heat) - 56.70 (26.22 / 30.48)
100m Fly (Heat) -54.35 (25.29 / 29.06)

Tokyo

100m Free (Heat) - 49.45 (24.08 / 25.37)
100m Fly (Heats) - 53.59 (25.11 / 28.48)

More Ian Thorpe Comeback Rumours

Typical Thorpe, no-one even close to him

Ah, nothing like some fresh Ian Thorpe comeback rumours to kick off 2011 in style. 
Speed Endurance readers rejoice. You asked for it, and it looks like you're going to get it. Last month 138 of you voted for Ian Thorpe as the swimmer you wanted to see comeback the most. I guess Thorpe reads the blog too...


Here are the Thorpe comeback facts to come out today:-

• Thorpedo has been swimming four or five times a week 'for fitness' with former training partner Craig Stevens.

• According to Stevens, "the technique was there, the stroke was there and everything was going really well."

•  Australian national head coach Leigh Nugent has been providing him with training programs.

• He is doing more swimming now than ever since retiring in 2006 and has lost 10kg.

Back in May last year I looked at what form a Thorpe comeback could take. Not too much has really changed since then.

• I still don't think Thorpe will be able to comeback in the 400m Free, the sheer volume of training he would need to do would be too much after 4 years out of the water.

•  Thorpe would only swim the individual 200m Free if he had a realistic shot at a medal (ie. managing to get back down to 1:44 or 1:45). There is no way he would want to damage his legacy in the sport by finishing 8th in the 200m Free final in London. 

•  The most likely events for him will be the 4 x 100m Free and 4 x 200m Free relays, with a possible individual 200m Free thrown in if all goes to plan. To make the Aussie team he probably needs to get down to a low/mid-48 on the 100m (his best time is 48.56 from the Athens Olympics) and around 1:46 or 1:47-low to make the 200m Free team (his best time 1:44.06 from Worlds in 2001).

• Even with Thorpe back to his best, the chances of Australia winning either relay are remote at best, however, he would certainly make Australia strong medal contenders, especially in the 4 x 200m Free. In both relays the US men are still favourites. In the 4 x 100m Free they will face strong challenges from France and Russia, whilst in the 4 x 200m Free it will likely come down to a head to head between USA and Russia.

The top 4 Aussies in each event last year.

100m Free

Eamon Sullivan - 48.52 (9th in the world)
Kyle Richardson - 48.69 (15th in the world)
Matthew Abood - 48.91 (25th in the world)
James Magnussen - 48.93 (27th in the world)

200m Free

Thomas Fraser-Holmes - 1:47.04 (11th in the world)
Kenrick Monk - 1:47.37 (16th in the world)
Nicholas Ffrost - 1:47.48 (19th in the world)
Patrick Murphy - 1:48.30 (36th in the world)