Duel In The Pool 2011 - Women's Predictions

This year’s Duel in the Pool takes place December 16-17 at the Georgia Tech Aquatic Center, Atlanta.

The European roster has been strengthened since 2009’s version of this event by allowing more countries to participate this time around, although it is a long way away from a full-strength European team. Among the notable absentees on the women's side: Rebecca Adlington, Federica Pellegrini, Sarah Sjostrom, Therese Alshammar, Camille Muffat, Mireia Belmonte, Britta Steffen, Anastasia Zueva, Hannah Miley, Femke Heemskerk.

US Team: Amanda Beard, Elizabeth Beisel, Elaine Breeden, Natalie Coughlin, Missy Franklin, Katy Freeman, Jessica Hardy, Kathleen Hersey, Katie Hoff, Dagny Knutson, Kaitlin Leverenz, Elizabeth Pelton, Julia Smit, Rebecca Soni, Ashley Steenvorden, Chloe Sutton, Dana Vollmer, Amanda Weir, Kate Ziegler.

European Team: Lotte Friis, Fran Halsall, Anna Martina Granstroem, Aliaksandra Herasimenia, Katinka Hosszu, Zsuzsanna Jakabos, Anja Klinar, Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Rikke Molle Pedersen, Grainne Murphy, Moniek Nijhuis, Jeanette Ottesen, Elizabeth Simmonds, Gemma Spofforth, Marleen Veldhuis, Evelin Verraszto, Sharon van Rouwendaal, Barbora Zavadova, Daryna Zevina.

Prediction Time

50m Free - Kromowidjojo, Halsall, Veldhuis vs Hardy, Weir, Coughlin

Having a Dutch contingent on the team is going to give the Europeans a huge boost in the sprint events. This has the potential to be a clean sweep, although Hardy has a habit of getting in the top 3 in the sprints.

Prediction - 1. Kromowidjojo, 2. Halsall, 3. Hardy

100m Free - Kromowidjojo, Ottesen, Herasimenia vs Coughlin, Weir, Franklin

You could make an argument for Halsall to swim this event, but it's hard to not pick the reigning world champions in both long and short course. This is an event Coughlin excels in, with Missy Franklin also posting blazing times this year. This should be an intriguing contest, but it is hard to look past last year's world champion who was so dominant in the event.

Prediction - 1. Kromowidjojo, 2. Franklin, 3. Ottesen

200m Free - Hosszu, Verraszto, van Rouwendaal vs. Vollmer, Hoff, Franklin

The Europeans could have done with having Sarah Sjostrom or Femke Heemskerk on the team, especially on the 200m Free... saying that, it may still not have been enough to win. US clean sweep.

Prediction - 1. Franklin, 2. Hoff, 3. Vollmer

Duel in the Pool 2011 - Men’s Predictions

This year’s Duel in the Pool takes place December 16-17 at the Georgia Tech Aquatic Center, Atlanta.

The European roster has been strengthened since 2009’s version of this event by allowing more countries to participate this time around, although it is a long way away from a full-strength European team. Among the notable absentees on the men’s side: Lacourt, Bousquet, Gilot, Bernard, Stravius, Biedermann, Agnel, Dale Oen, Donets, Dotto, Fesikov, Lobintsev, Scozzoli, Tancock, Goddard, Wildeboer.
The US are bringing a close to full strength team, however they will have to compete with some important pieces missing. No Michael Phelps, no Nathan Adrian, no Chad LaTourette.

Rosters

Europe - Bernek, Biczo, Brown, Cseh, Czerniak, Glaesner, Gyurta, Heersbrandt, Joensen, Jukic, Kawecki, Kis, Korzeniowski, Loughran, Meichtry, Morozov, Renwick, Rogan, Takacs, Titenis, Verraszto, vom Lehn – 22 swimmers

USA – Alexandrov, Berens, Brunelli, Clary, Dwyer, Gangloff, Grevers, Feigen, Hansen, Klueh, Lochte, McGill, McLean, Tarwater, Thoman, Shanteau, Vanderkaay, Weber-Gale – 18 swimmers

Prediction time. Assuming the format remains the same, swimmers can compete in four individual swims. Point scoring is as follows: Relay – 7 points to winner, nothing for second place. Individual events, 1st – 5 points, 2nd – 3 points, 3rd – 1 point.

Predictions (Race line-ups haven’t been announced yet)

50m Free – Czerniak, Brown, Takacs vs. Feigen, Brunelli, Weber-Gale
No Nathan Adrian hurts the US team here, but Feigen is not a bad replacement. Despite this, Czerniak goes in as favourite after his Euro SC performance. Morozov, who has been faster in SCY this year than Feigen, might also get a swim here.
Prediction – 1. Czerniak, 2. Feigen, 3. Brown

100m Free – Brown, Takacs, Morozov vs. Feigen, Weber-Gale, Grevers
This event highlights what the event could have been with a full strength European team (no Russians, no French). Vlad Morozov has been in great form in US college swimming and could cause an upset in this one if given the individual swim.
Prediction – 1. Morozov, 2. Feigen 3. Grevers

200m Free - Meichtry, Korzeniowski, Renwick vs. Berens, Dwyer, Lochte
Europe will miss Biedermann, Agnel and the Russians in this race. Meichtry and Korzeniowski have an advantage of having just raced at Euro SC, but that might not be enough against a top US line-up. If Lochte swims this event it will be USA’s best chance for a sweep.
Prediction – 1. Lochte, 2. Berens, 3. Dwyer

Thoughts from the Germany - Great Britain Duel

This article originally appeared on The Swimmers Circle

Last weekend saw two of European Swimming’s powerhouse nations go head to head against each other in the second edition of their ‘Duel In The Pool’. Big news, right? Well…. not really. Most swimming fans probably weren’t even aware it happened. For an indication of how much coverage it received, here is the four sentence recap from the British Swimming website.

Here are my slightly longer thoughts from the Germany vs Great Britain Duel. Results Here. For what it’s worth, Germany defeated the UK 240-195.


Positives

- It’s great that the dual meet concept, so successful in US collegiate swimming, is being furthered in Europe. Our sport continually searches for new ideas to stay relevant and popular in non-Olympic years. To have two nations, with such a great sporting rivalry*, go head-to-head is exactly the type of meet that could do wonders for the sport of swimming.

The concept should be an easy sell for TV too. Get two top nations and their star swimmers, boil the action down to a single day and let battle commence.

(* The rivalry is certainly intense in Britain, although the Germans tend to savour beating their neighbours the Dutch a little more.)

- Germany, who picked the strongest team it had available and was only weakened with the late withdrawals of Britta Steffen and Paul Biedermann (romantic weekend away, perhaps), were boosted by the return of World Silver medalist Helge Meeuw: their leading male backstroker.

Meeuw had a solid, if not spectacular return. He won the 50m Back in 25.80 and swam 55.13 on the lead-off of the men’s 4 x 100m Medley relay, although he could only muster 56.84 in the individual 100m Back. Assuming Meeuw can get back to his best, the German Medley team, silver medalists in Rome with Meeuw on Back, Hendrik Feldwehr on Breast, Benjamin Starke on Fly and Paul Biedermann on Free, will have an outside chance at getting back on the medal podium at Worlds this year.

- Britain’s women showed their impressive strength in depth. Despite missing leading figures such as Rebecca Adlington, Gemma Spofforth, Lizzie Simmonds, Fran Halsall and Joanne Jackson, the British women were still able to win 13 of the 17 individual events. Jaz Carlin, star of the same meet last year, swept the middle distance freestyle events and will once again battle with Rebecca Adlington and Joanne Jackson for the two individual spots for Worlds this year.

- The Europe vs USA Duel In The Pool in Manchester 2009 was one of the best swimming events ever witnessed on these shores. Not only was it televised on the BBC, it was also made into great entertainment. That is the level all future Duel’s should aim for, however the idea can only be sold if the countries top swimmers compete and its held at a time when the teams are not in heavy training.

The obvious time to hold such a meet is soon after major competitions, long course or short course, where swimmers are rested and tapered. Some good news: the next installment of Europe vs USA is set to take place in Atlanta on December 18-19, shortly after US Short Course Nationals (Dec 1-3) and the European Short Course Champs (Dec 8-11).

Negatives

- This meet was held in Essen, Germany in a pool that didn’t have a stand for spectators. The teams were also not released until a few days before the competition began for ‘tactical reasons’, stifling any potential buzz about the contest.

- British Swimming sent a young, talented team, but ultimately one that lacked the majority of its major stars. There was no Rebecca Adlington, Gemma Spofforth, Lizzie Simmonds, Fran Halsall, Joanne Jackson, Liam Tancock or James Goddard. It was, for all intents and purposes, a B team.

Whilst I have no problem with sending a young team to gain international experience, call a spade a spade. Why withhold the team list for tactical reasons when you are sending an inexperienced team going up against a full strength German team in the first place? Why not send this team to a competition such as the Luxembourg Euro Meet to gain experience and have the Duel with Germany at a time when both nations are willing to select their strongest teams?

- There will be a Great Britain vs Russia meet held March 18-20 (a week after British Nationals) in Moscow. Unfortunately the selection policy states, ‘Swimmers who are world ranked top 10 (2 per nation) in an individual Olympic event will not be eligible to represent Great Britain at the GB v Russia Duel Meet 2011.’ This means that once again the British team will not include many of its stars and the meet will quite possibly receive a similar level of hype that the German Duel did.

- Great Britain vs Germany had been scheduled for another encounter in 2012, but this has now been cancelled. I hope that this doesn’t signal the beginning of the end of a great concept that has never really been fully explored to its full potential through a combination of poor planning and execution.

Duel In The Pool - Germany vs Great Britain

Germany will have a chance to exact revenge on Great Britain when the two teams meet again February 5-6 in Essen, Germany.


Day One Results

Last year in Swansea saw a one-sided contest in which Britain (207 points) dominated an unprepared German team (109 points). The drubbing last time around had a lot to do with the different stages of training the two teams were in. Whilst Britain were tuning up for their nationals just a month later, Germany were still in heavy training with their nationals five months away.

The competition last year saw a breakthrough meet for Jaz Carlin as well as strong performances from Liam Tancock, Elizabeth Simmonds, Fran Halsall and Germany's Paul Biedermann. This year the Brits are sending a younger and less experienced team which is missing a lot of their stars (Adlington, Halsall, Simmonds, Jackson, Tancock, Davies not  attending).

This time around the Germans intend to put up a better performance and are sending their first team to Essen. Their biggest stars, Britta Steffen and Biedermann, are both set to compete, UPDATE - have both just withdrawn from the competition. Their withdrawal will go a long way towards levelling this competition up. So much so, that I would now say the British women are favourites with the German men still slightly infront of the British men on paper.

The other big news from the German camp sees the return of Helge Meeuw to international competition for the first time since Istanbul 09. Meeuw is a vital part of Germany's 4 x 100m Medley hopes and should he get back to full fitness, the Germans will be back in the hunt for medals in Shanghai.

This year's British Nationals are scheduled for March 5-12. German Nationals will take place May 31 - June 5.

German Team

Women (21):

Dorothea Brandt, Annika Bruhn, Deborah Gonschorek, Lisa Graf, Isabelle Härle, Franziska Hentke, Franziska Jansen, Silke Lippok, Jenny Mensing, Theresa Michalak, Sarah Poewe, Nadine Reichert Juliane Reinhold, Caroline Ruhnau, Nina Schiffer, Katharina Schiller, Daniela Schreiber Britta Steffen, Sina Sutter, Lisa Vitting, Alexandra Wenk

Men (20):

Robin Backhaus, Paul Biedermann, Markus Deibler, Steffen Deibler, Christian Diener, Hendrik Feldwehr, Christoph Fildebrandt, Jan-Philipp Glania, Stefan Herbst, Christian Kubusch, Marco Koch, Yannick Lebherz, Christian vom Lehn, Helge Meeuw, Johannes Neumann, Clemens Rapp, Jan David Schepers, Benjamin Starke, Tim Wallburger, Felix Wolf

British Team

Women (17):

Achieng Ajulu-Bushell, Jaz Carlin, Georgia Davies, Lucy Ellis, Megan Gilchrist, Kate Hutchinson, Rachel Lefley, Jemma Lowe, Amelia Maughan, Hannah Miley, Emma Saunders, Amy Smith, Sophie Smith, Stacey Tadd, Alys Thomas, Emma Wilkins, Aimee Willmott

Men (15):

Tom Allen, Ryan Bennett, Jack Burnell, Craig Gibbons, Scott Hathaway, Antony James, Ieuan Lloyd, Robbie Renwick, Joe Roebuck, Lewis Smith, Christopher Steeples, Joshua Walsh, Richard Webb, Andrew Willis, James Young

Duel In The Pool - The Revenge

Rod Gilmour in The Daily Telegraph is reporting that the second installment of 2009's Duel in the Pool will take place in Atlanta on Dec 18-19 this year. Keeping the same format as the original event, it will be a European select team, but with a twist.

"The European team are likely to be joined by the Russians and Hungarians in a bid to overturn the trouncing handed out by the Americans at the inaugural event last December."

This should come as great news to swimming fans on both sides of the Atlantic. The last event was a resounding success, despite the mismatch in the final score. It was the Duel in the Pool that got this blog started and I stick by my first ever post, that with a full strength European team (which needs to include France, Holland, Spain and Sweden), we would could have beaten The US.

200m Freestyle: Biedermann vs Phelps

You can find my race-by-race recap of the Great Britain Vs. Germay duel day one here and day two here. Full results (without splits) are here.

Biedermann vs Phelps

Great to see Paul Biedermann back in action at the GBR Vs. GER duel. He looked in tremendous physical condition. He mentioned that he'd lost 1.5kg and that he still had more a bit more to lose. His modesty shone through after the race too when the inevitable questions about Phelps came up. He dealt with them admirably calling Phelps the "greatest swimmer in the world" and that he hopes to face him later in the year either at the Monaco leg of the Mare Nostrum series in June or at the World Shortcourse Champs in Dubai in December.

Why Phelps vs Biedermann is so intriguing is the fact that Phelps' famous last 50m speed, where he has won so many races, is less effective against Biedermann. Normally if Phelps goes into the final turn level or just behind a swimmer, you still expect him to win. However, take a look back at the 200m Final in Rome last year and see Biedermann's final 50m. This is the first time I can remember seeing anyone pulling away from Phelps on a final 50m. 9 minute version here with full build up and post-race analysis.

This is the way Biedermann swims and I believe he's strong enough to match Phelps on the final 50m of a 200m Free. Phelps may need to change his approach to the 200m and take the race out (possibly sub-50 seconds) if he wants to beat Biedermann.

The one criticism I have of Biedermann is his starts. He loses out everytime on them and his starting weakness was evident again this weekend. The worrying aspect for his rivals is that this is something that can be improved upon.

Duel in the Pool Re-think

As the dust settles on Duel in the Pool, I've decided to look at how this event could have worked out. Hopefully it will give an indication of the potential this has in the future if the sponsor/political issues could have been resolved. I realise this is all theoretical and the chance of getting all these guys at the same time on top form is slim, saying that most of these guys were swimming fast just last week at the Europeans.

Here is how a full strength Europe might have looked (assuming a squad of 36 swimmers):-

Men
Leveaux, Bousquet, Bernard, Biedermann, Colbertaldo, Prilukov, Wildeboer, Donets, Vyatchanin, Borysik, Duboscq, Scozzoli, Giorgetti, Cavic, Svortskov, Jukic, Goddard, Cseh - 18 Swimmers

50m Free - Leveaux, Bousquet, Bernard - Probable 1-2-3 for Europe although always tough to call 50 Free.
100m Free - Leveaux, Bernard, Bousquet - Leveaux and Bernard in the top 3, Adrian probably taking 2nd or 3rd for the US.
200m Free - Biedermann, Bernard, Leveaux - Biedermann wins it, Vanderkaay 2nd, Diebler 3rd.
400m Free - Biedermann, Colbertaldo, Prilukov - Biedermann wins it, Vanderkaay 2nd (would be a great race though), Colbertado 3rd.
800m Free - Biedermann, Colbertaldo, Prilukov - Possible 1-2-3. La Tourette might have sneaked a 3rd.
100m Back - Wildeboer, Donets, Vyatchanin - Thoman probably would have still won (ignoring the DQ), Grevers in 2nd, one of the European's in 3rd.
200m Back - Wildeboer, Donets, Vyatchanin - Vyatchanin 1st, Grevers 2nd, Donets 3rd.
100m Breast - Borysik, Duboscq, Scozzoli - Good race, Alexandrov 1st, Europe 2 and 3.
200m Breast - Borysik, Duboscq, Giorgetti - Same as 100. Alexandrov 1, Europe 2 and 3.
100m Fly - Cavic, Bousquet, Svortskov - In a suit you'd have to say Cavic, with Phelps 2nd, Svortskov 3rd.
200m Fly - Svortskov, Jukic, Cseh - Svortskov 1, Phelps 2, Jukic 3
200m IM - Goddard, Jukic, Cseh - Goddard 1, Cseh 2, Jukic 3
400m IM - Goddard, Jukic, Cseh - Cseh 1, Clary 2, Jukic 3
4 x 100m Free - Leveaux, Bernard, Bousquet, Biedermann - Winners, smash WR (possibly sub 3minutes)
4 x 100m Medley - Wildeboer, Duboscq, Cavic, Leveaux - This would be close! I'll go with US though

Total Male Points - 86 Europe/47 USA

Women
Steffen, Halsall, Veldhuis, Pellegrini, Balmy, Jackson, Adlington, Simmonds, Spofforth, Putra, Jukic, De Ronchi, Efimova, Sjostrom, Segat, Belmonte, Miley - 17 Swimmers

50m Free - Steffen, Halsall, Veldhuis - Europe 1-2-3
100m Free - Steffen, Halsall, Veldhuis - Europe 1-2-3
200m Free - Pellegrini, Balmy, Steffen - Pellegrini 1, Schmitt 2, Balmy 3
400m Free - Pellegrini, Balmy, Jackson - Pellegrini 1, Jackson 2, Schmitt 3
800m Free - Adlington, Balmy, Jackson - Europe 1-2-3
100m Back - Simmonds, Spofforth, Putra - Simmonds 1, Hoelzer 2, Spofforth 3
200m Back - Simmonds, Spofforth, Putra - Simmonds 1, Hoelzer 2, Pelton 3
100m Breast - Jukic, De Ronchi, Efimova - Soni 1, Hardy 2, Jukic 3
200m Breast - Jukic, De Ronchi, Efimova - Soni 1, Freeman 2, Jukic 3
100m Fly - Halsall, Veldhuis, Sjostrom - Halsall 1, Magnuson 2, Vollmer 3
200m Fly - Sjostrom, Segat, Belmonte - Descenza 1, Vollmer 2, Segat 3
200m IM - Segat, Belmonte, Miley - Smit 1, Kukors 2, Segat 3
400m IM - Segat, Belmonte, Miley - Smit 1, Knutson 2, Miley 3
4 x 100m Free - Steffen, Halsall, Veldhuis, Pellegrini - Europe destroy the WR
4 x 100m Medley - Simmonds, Jukic, Halsall, Steffen - Close race but Europe to edge it

Total Female Points - 76 Europe/55 USA

Total Points - 162 Europe/102 USA

As I've said before the chances of this happening aren't great but hopefully I've shown how this event could have turned out/could turn out in the future. Two things to bear in mind for next year's event - a) the suits. Expect Phelps to win every race he swims in. b) Lochte swimming for the US.