May 10 - 13
Results
Psych Sheet
Live Video
The US prove once again that when it comes to domestic meets, nobody comes close. Just a few of the star names competing... Phelps, Lochte, Manaudou, Bousquet, Coughlin, Hoff, Vollmer, Mellouli, Sutton, Rogan, Berens, Wu Peng, Soni, Hardy, Hansen, Shanteau, Spofforth, Vyatchanin, Cavic, Targett, Beisel, Leverenz, Weber-Gale, Ervin, Bovell, Kukors, Schoeman... and breathe.
Heats start at 9am EDT (2pm BST). Finals start at 6pm EDT (11pm BST). Thursday finals start at 4pm EDT (9pm BST)
Random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteLedecky almost takes out Schmitt with a 4:05 400 in what is the most interesting swim of the meet for me so far. Very impressive for a 15 year old and almost breaks Janet Evans' 1988 age group record. Ledecky had quite a charge in the last fifty and almost won. She had a lot left at the end of that 400 and IMO could drop a few seconds in Omaha and shut out Hoff. Stay tuned.
Vollmer at 57.2 in training is a very good sign. Vollmer is one of the best racers in the world, I love watching her compete. Coughlin absolutely blasted the first 50 in the 100 fly as well, she's a real threat (as usual).
Lochte looks like a complete mess. This is not surprising for him but he looks even worse than usual. I'm not concerned about Lochte but this is the worst I've seen him six weeks out of a major meet probably ever.
On the other hand, Berens looked great: smooth and controlled 1:47 shows he's going to be a huge bonus to the relay if not individually. His stroke is very, very pretty. The Duel showed that Berens is at the height of his powers right now, I have no idea what he's going to do in Omaha, but it's going to be fast. The US 4X200 for men is going to be really, really fast on paper.
Soni is just ridiculous, no one else is even in the frame in the 200. The women's 100 breast is going to be fascinating, especially if Larson shows up ready to race.
Shanteau is definitely starting to hit his stride. The US now has two untapered swimmers at 2:09 in the 200 breast which is a bit surprising to me. Add Hansen and will we have 3 potential 2:08s at trials?
US women's 200 fly continues to look like a bit of a mess, 2:08 high isn't going to cut it.
Hardy looked good in the fifty but not that good. Men's 50 needs work as well but Schneider looks ripped. He looks like Ahnuld circa Conan out there.
Phelps beaten twice in two of his signature events.
udging from his other interviews, it seems that he may have already given up on an individual spot. He’s looking good right now, but he is ACTUALLY looking at a 3 second drop to even attempt any sort of an upset.
ReplyDeleteThe good news is that he is less than a second off his textile best, and if he can break into 145s, that is probably enough to solidify Gold for the US 4×200. I’m very interested in whether he can go sub49 tonight. Technically speaking the 2nd spot in the 100free is quite open behind Adrian. In the US, objectively speaking we have Adrian, Phelps as 48.0 and under swimmers; Lochte and Lezak who are 48mid swimmers; GWG who is somewhere in between those groups depending on the day; and a host of 48high,49.0 swimmers including Walters, Grevers, Feigen, Berens, Robison et al.
IMO, the only swimmer from the last group that I could actually see dropping to the sub48s is Berens. If he is able to go sub49 tonight, it would truly confirm my suspicions. As well, I suspect that the top6 cut off at US trials will probably be just as fast as it was in Australia. I also suspect that to make the individual spot, you really need to be at least 48.1 or 48.2, if Berens is able to go sub49 tonight, I would feel that it would put him in direct conflict with GWG for that 2nd individual spot.
Leverenz has been very consistent in the 200IM.. Her breast stroke split of 36.5 is always going to make her rivals have something to think about. I think Kukors and Leverenz will secure the IM spots in the short medley in 2.09low perfomances at least. Pelton, Coughlin and Hoff will need somethng extra to make the 200IM cut
ReplyDeleteI say Pelton has a shot because at Winter Nationals, she was, I believe a 210.0 when she was no where near a minute in the 100back, which has been a barrier she's been knocking on continuously for about 3 years now, and its only only going to be a matter of time.
ReplyDeleteThat said, if she swims the time she's capable of, I could see her in the 209range too. The trouble with Hoff is that in the last 3 years, she's been so far off her best that it would amaze pundits to see her NEAR her best, let alone surpass it.
It would be a huge motivatingly personal victory to even see her back in the 155s, 209s, sub404 and sub435s.
More random thoughts:
ReplyDeleteLochte puts on a jammer and look what happens. He rocked the fly and back and died a bit in the free but you can't argue with a 1:57. Phelps, Clary and dark horses like Nolan and Dwyer, there's lots of US strength in the men's 200 IM. 1:58 just to get in the final at trials, I'll bet. It's going to take something close to a WR to make the team.
Leverenz's front half continues to improve. She was pretty close to Pelton at the back/breast turn which wouldn't have been the case last year. Her free's still a bit sloppy. Her comment about a sub 2:08 being required to medal in London sounds about right to me. IMO, the winner will be sub 2:07.
Ledecky at 8:25, wow! She swam the entire race alone as well. Swim of the meet I think. Four second drop from her personal best, who knows where she'll be at trials. Her turns are still a little weak (if better than Sutton's) so I see lots of room for improvement. In Rio she'll be an ancient 19. Insane.
We started seeing Lia Neal back in 08 when she qualified for trials in the 50 as a 13 year old. I remember her interview in Santa Clara in 08, she was such a little kid, not really anymore. It's nice to see her continue to improve, she just dropped half a second off her best. She's a definite shot for the relay. Once she gets in a good college program, it's going to be interesting to follow her.
Ryan Murphy is the real deal, he's been swimming very well all year. Outstanding racing from him to take down Pinzon in the last 5 meters. 16 years old!
Ervin swam the other interesting swim of the night for me. He tightened up a bit in the last 25 but looked really good for the first 75. He's still getting crushed a bit in the start but is one of the fastest in the world between the flags. He's probably going to be in the mid 48s after taper which is pretty impressive for someone who's 30 years old and took 8 years off. One of the most naturally talented swimmers ever, IMO.
I dont think anyone will get to 2.07 in the women's 2001M at olympics.. A good number of top swimmers have 2.08mid potential. Rice, Ye Shiwen, Coutts. If Kukors and Leverenz make the cut, i'l count them in... It'l probably take a 2.10high just 2 make the final in london. Lots of depth in the women's 200IM
ReplyDeleteAlso in the 200IM, only 4 women went sub 2.09.00 in poly suits; Kukors, Rice, Hosszu and Coventry. Only Ye Shiwen has beat the 2.09 barrier in textile.. In all likelihood anythng sub 2.09 in London will be good enough for a medal.
ReplyDeleteKukors went 2:09 mid untapered last year at Santa Clara (June). Admittedly, she only gained half a second on taper in Shanghai but I can see her in the 2:08s in Omaha. Leverenz has already been 2:09 low this year, not sure if she was tapered for NCAA for that swim (they were around the same time) but 2:08 in Omaha is certainly within reason for her as well. Are you guys saying these are medalling times? I don't know, you can't go by what happened in 2011. People come out of the woodwork in Olympic years, the best swimmers rise to the ocassion. US trials is going to be very, very fast in the women's 200 IM when you add in Pelton, Coughlin and the like. Seeing those times, I'm sure other swimmers will step up in London. For example, I'll bet Rice is going to be significantly faster than her trials time. I'll stick with 2:07 to win in London.
ReplyDeleteYou're bang on about swimmers raising their game for Olympic years! It wouldn't surprise me if Missy Franklin ended up qualifying in the 200 free, back and IM and swum both 800 & medley relays. She's an unknown quantity. It might not be *likely* but it wouldn't *surprise* me...
DeleteFranklin is superfast in back and free, especially in the 200 distance.
DeleteBut IM? I don't think so. Well at least not this year.
Also, I don't think anyone will go sub 2:07 in the women 200 IM.
No way.
That's super ridiculous.
Hmm you're probably right about the IM, I was getting carried away thinking about her 100IM Berlin World Cup swim. Though I still wonder if/how Franklin is going to juggle her events in Omaha: 200 back semi/100 free final, 100 back final just after 200 free semi... Surely she wouldn't drop any of those events, but if you were trying to make your first Olympics (against Coughlin, Bootsma, Weir, Schmitt etc) would you gamble on being able to recover quickly enough for back-to-back swims? I hope she does!
DeleteI couldn't agree with aswimfan more... We'l probably see many of the olympic finalist going sub 2.10.0 in the final.. A 2.07high to 2.08low may be good enough for gold.. Ye Shiwen in my opinion will be the slight fave with her lightning fast freestyle finish. Rice, the defending champ has a good shot at gold will be 2.08mid at least.. Missy Franklin is an unknown in the 200IM. Her 2.11.69 from 2010 doesnt say anythn about her potential.. If she attempts the event at trials u'l have to watch for her...
ReplyDeleteYeah, I think a 2:08low will be enough for gold.
ReplyDelete