According to the French Swimming Federation's official press dossier, their hottest new star, Yannick Agnel WILL be competing in the 400m Free in Shanghai.
His participation was in doubt after he came down with a lung infection back in May, but his performance at the Paris Open (3:45.31) showed that he was in the kind of form necessary to compete for a spot on the podium.
Agnel will also be competing in the 4 x 100 Freestyle relay, which was the other event in doubt on the Frenchman's schedule, as well as the 200 Free and 4 x 200 Free relay.
Other interesting notes from the dossier:
• Camille Muffat will have a busy schedule. She is down to swim the 100, 200, 400 & 800 Free as well as the 4 x 100 Medley relay and the 4 x 200 Free relay.
• Fred Bousquet will swim the Butterfly leg on the 4 x 100 Medley relay.
• This one might test the limits of the term 'interesting', but here are the heights of the Men's French team: Agnel 2.01m, Lacourt 1.97m, Bernard 1.96m, Mallet 1.96m, Gilot 1.93m, Meynard 1.92m, Duboscq 1.91m, Stravius 1.90m, Bousquet 1.88m, Stasiulis 1.86m, Rouault 1.82m. An average of 1.92m (6 ft 3in) per swimmer.
UPDATE 20/7: Fred Bousquet will not swim in the 4 x 100 Free relay. Yannick Agnel is the only swimmer with a place in the final secure. The heats team will be led off by Alain Bernard who will be joined by William Meynard, Jeremy Stravius and Fabien Gilot. The fastest three men from the heats will make up the final team alongside Agnel.
Will Bousquet swim the prelim 400 free relay? they could have him, Mallet, Agnel and Stravius compete for the fourth finals relay spot along with Gilot, Meynard, and Bernard. Or will they leave Bousquet off and Bernard in the prelims?
ReplyDeleteI think its hard to imagine them making Agnel swim the prelim. He's probably the busiest Frenchman in terms of scheduling. Phelps never swam prelims in 04 as much as his finals selection was controversial. Agnel would probably receive the same treatment because he is so busy that first day. He needs all the energy he can for the first finals session.
ReplyDeleteI wouldn't be surprised if Bernard and even Meynard swims prelims. btw I'm not very well versed in this, but in the top countries top 6 makes the relay squad, but does that mean they can only sub a max of 2 swimmers? I'm quite sure they can still use people who weren't top 6 like Bousquet and even replace all 4 prelims swimmers if they're that confident.
Anyways, interestingly it seems as though Agnel has been able to make a near-full recovery. We will see because swimmers may have to go 346low or even faster just to make this final.Anyways, I think the top dogs like Park and Sun will pop something ridiculous like 343 in the prelims, which'll hopefully drag the other potential medalists to good times. Still I wouldnt be surprised if Herr Biedermann misses the cut. Just a feeling.
John, I agree with your prediction of 3:46 low to make the final. If I were a potential 400 Free finalist, I'd definitely want to be in Sun Yang's or Park's heat.
ReplyDeleteYou can also replace your entire relay team from heats to finals, the Aussie women did this in the 4 x 200 relay in Beijing.
This can only mean that Agnel is very confident of his swim. And he's also already on 48 mid. I think he is a very strong medal contender in 200 now (apart from park and phelps)
ReplyDeleteYep the aussie women 800 FR did successfully in Beijing by resting all their 4 top swimmers.
ReplyDeleteThe british women 800 FR tried to do the same by confidently resting their top 2 or 3, only to have their biggest shock of not making final.
alain bernard will swim the 4x100 free relay prelim like last year in budapest and in dubai because he said that he is less nervous to starts a competition in the prelim then directly in a final .
ReplyDeleteNo wonder Bousquet, mere 1.88m tall, cuts the figure of a midget in that group!
ReplyDeleteSo Agnel IS taller than Sun (who I think I read was 1.98ish??)
I'm glad to hear that Agnel is swimming 400. It's going to be exciting.
In Beijing, many of the finalists swam 3:43 in the heats.
Why wouldn't it be faster or just as fast this time?
Wait, come to think of it, only three or four guys have swum inside 3:44 since 2010, is that right?
Then 3:46 sounds reasonable, or even too fast for some "contenders."
In any case, an exciting week ahead!
Only 3 guys have ever raced under 3:44 since beginning 2010: Sun Yang, Park Tae Hwan and Agnel.
ReplyDeleteand only 5 guys have swum under 3:45 since beginning 2010: the three guys above + zhang lin and Ryan Napoleon, and Zhang Lin is not swimming the 400 in Shanghai.
I think 3:46 low is still too fast to qualify for finals, and I think a couple of swimmers will qualify in 3:47 or even 3:48.
^ I meant "and only 5 guys have swum under 3:46" !
ReplyDeleteSo yeah, there's no way the cut for final 8 will be 3:46 low, because that means 3 or 4 guys will have to swim their textile PBs in the prelims, and that normally doesn't happen in middle/distance.
ReplyDeleteNapoleon has never gone under 345.
ReplyDeleteThe swimmers I can conceivably see under 346 are Sun, Park, Agnel, Mellouli, Napoleon, pvk.. and lets assume Biedermann (theoretically, he should, but I'm not confident about his chances. 7 swimmers. After them, there are a host of swimmers who I think could drop into 346s--who probably have to swim their best to make the final like Houchin, Lobintsev, Kis, PIzzetti, Rapp, ...etc. I'm pretty sure SOMEONE will go 346 and miss the cut.
I think 5 or 6 will go under 346, and the remaining will be 346low. But I think if the top qualifiers blast it, you could see more go sub346 and a slower final.
I think although the medalists will probably be faster than 08 this year, the suits boosted everyone's performances in general, so the qualifying times were faster back then. In the final will may see 3 sub343s like in Beijing, but there's no way we're going to see 7 sub344s.
Actually, aswimfan, I see you're point. Im not sure if the cuts going to be 346low and 346.7, but my gut feeling is that a lot of people know this is going to be a fast field and will see how fast the top qualifiers are going to swim and they will follow. I dont think that a 347 will make the cut.
ReplyDeleteThe cut in 2007 was 3:48.72 (Hackett).
ReplyDeleteSure, Shanghai will be a lot faster than Melbourne, but I doubt to the point where it's 3 seconds faster to make the cut.
I just wrote and posted a long analyses comment, but somehow it got deleted?
ReplyDeleteThe 3rd last heat has the no3 ranked swimmer.So that will be the most difficult . The standard seems to up significantly .After that the the 1 & 2 seeds will have a good idea. We have not seen a top heat/final l non suit 400 since 07
ReplyDeleteAs to the final it will be those who can back it up in the evening. Not easy if the heats are fast.
I always remember the DDR Womens track team that trained to get through to finals & be the strongest standing.
Its a different race after heavy qualifying demands.
Post it again, aswimfan!! (a big fan right here)
ReplyDeleteSo how are the heats assigned?
Is it based on this year's time?
Apart from Parkie and Sunny, I'll look forward to seeing how fast Mellouli and Agnel can swim.
Agnel used 37 strokes on the closing laps of his 400 mt euros.
ReplyDeleteThe chinese girl used 37 strokes on every lap of the 800.
Agnel 2= metres. Chinese girl = 170cm?
Well I have a lot of time because Im at my internship (Im so productive), I've taken a look at the psych sheets from 09 and there are 3 competitive heats that go:
ReplyDeletefastest heat: seeds 1,4,7,10
2nd fastest: seeds 2,5,8,11
3rd fastest: seeds 3,6,9,12
obviously.. we dont know what times the swimmers are going to enter as seeds, but most tend to enter their fastest times from the year or the previous year. If we go by fastest times form 10/11. It'll look like this:
fastest heat (A): Sun, Napoleon, FraserHolmes, Pizzetti, + DaiJun (thought it was honorary mention)
2nd fastest (B): Park, Mellouli, Cochrane, Houchin
3rd fastest (C): Agnel, Biedermann, Vanderkaay, Rapp
ps Rouault isnt swimming the 400m right?
Anyways, I think the 3rd fastest heat is going to be VERY enjoyable to watch. It'll be interesting to see what strategies Park and Agnel will have in the prelims because theyve negative splitted all their races this year, which is something they're not going to be able to do. I think in heat C, pvk is going to be the work horse who goes out hard just a feeling.
With both aussies in with Sun, I think they stand a pretty good chance of making finals, for FraserHolmes it would like take a personal best. Also the reason I put Dai Jun there is because I "discovered" him at work today while working on my final predictions.
He was 754 in the 800 while going 3:50 in the 400 and 1518 in the 1500. Last year he was 348in the 400 and 1506 in the 15. Its likely that he'll be somewhere around 747 in the 800 once he brings his other times down to his times last year, and this is assuming he doesn't improve in them (he's like 17? Im not exactly sure how old he is, but he's going to be VERY good on home turf). I have a hunch he's going to scrap onto the finals in this event, which would probably put him in bronze medal territory for the 800 (well... he's my pick).
I think because Sun has SO many demanding events next week, he's not going to go THAT fast in this prelim. I think he's going to swim 344 that looks like he's taking a warm up swim. I believe Park will probably be the top qualifier and drag Mellouli and Cochrane (who i didnt originally think would final) with him.
Wow, what a hypothetical post.
Fred Bousquet will not swim in the 4 x 100 Free relay. Yannick Agnel is the only swimmer with a place in the final secure. The heats team will led off by Alain Bernard who will be joined by William Meynard, Jeremy Stravius and Fabien Gilot. The fastest three men from the heats will make up the final team alongside Agnel.
ReplyDeleteThen what is Gregory Mallet on the team for?
ReplyDeleteMallet is only on the team for the 4 x 200 Free relay.
ReplyDeletedoes anyone know of any free live video streams? english preferably, but any other language is fine (its better then the 9.99 for universal) thanks if anyone finds something
ReplyDeleteIts up guys, and I pretty much called the top 3 heats for the 400m free. Wow
ReplyDelete